Published on EUObserver
As
expected, the national populist Sweden Democrats made another breakthrough in
Sunday’s Swedish parliamentary election. Their advances were less than some
expected, but that is due to
the fact that mainstream parties have been taking the issues of immigration and
crime more seriously. This mainstream strategy earlier proved a success in
Belgium, the Netherlands
and Austria.
Still, not
less than 41%
of Swedes voted for a different party in 2018 as compared to four years ago,
and the 17 percent support for the Sweden Democrats may
cause the end of the so-called “bloc politics”, whereby a centre-right and
centre-left bloc of political parties struggle for power. It’s even possible
that new elections would need to be called within three months. Swedish
politics is very non- adversarial. For example, the budgets of the outgoing
minority government composed of social democrats and greens were being
supported by three centre-right opposition parties. The centre-right Moderate
Party does not want to continue to do so but then it isn’t keen on joining a
“grand coalition” with the social democrats or seeing its “blue bloc” splinter
either. The SD’s growing importance is upsetting
a lot.
That this
is all due to Sweden’s open door immigration policies, which for a while saw 10.000 asylum seekers per week entering the
country of 10 million inhabitants, is well-known. A record 163,000 asylum
seekers came
to the country in 2015, the highest per capita of any European country. This
followed hundreds of thousands in previous years.
Sweden
however decided to shut its doors in November 2015, when green deputy Prime
Minister Asa Romson cried at a press conference, as she announced the U-turn, commenting:
“We simply cannot do any more”.
Interestingly,
even a lot of immigrants would be voting for the Sweden Democrats, which made efforts to attract them, a strategy which paid
off, according to government agency Statistics Sweden. In a way that’s not
surprising: immigrants are the ones living in the neighbourhoods plagued by increasingly violent gang crime. The numbers of murders involving
firearms have more than doubled since 2014, to 43, whereas Norway, a country half the size of Sweden,
only saw one homicide. This year alone, 10 murders happened in Rosengård, a
district of the city of Malmö, where almost all crime suspects—and victims—are
of foreign origin. It should perhaps be no surprise that the SD became the
biggest party in the districts around Malmö.
The Swedish
government denies that this is due to the recent immigration
wave but voters don’t seem to be convinced. US President Trump faced a backlash
when he claimed in February 2017 that Sweden was struggling
with crime and immigration, but ever since several Swedish researchers have
been repeating the same line. Prominent economist Tino Sanandaji explained that “until about three years ago it
was a taboo to openly criticize migration and its consequences”, but as “the burden
on the social system dramatically increased” that has changed.
Claims that
the economy has been doing
well recently, so it’s odd to see so much disgruntlement, do not tell the whole story. When one
looks at the economic growth figures per head, the results are much less
impressive. Swedish annual GDP per capita growth in 2017 was the second lowest in
the EU.
Sweden was
the third richest country on earth in the seventies, but has since fallen back to the twelfth place, with
poverty having doubled until 17 percent. After decades of social democratic
policies, with ultra-high taxes, a financial crisis at the
beginning of the 1990s forced
the country to embark on economic liberalization, really going
back to its pre-World War I laissez-faire roots. A leftwing government even
went on to scrap
inheritance taxation and gift tax altogether in 2004. The reforms
have been a great success, but the work isn’t finished, as Sweden’s
dysfunctional public
planning of the housing market proves.
Add mass-immigration to the mix and
it’s not so hard to discover the sources of discontent, especially as 23% percent of
non-European immigrants are unemployed, making them even harder to integrate
and contrasting with a 4% unemployment of native Swedes. An independent
committee within the Swedish Finance Ministry has estimated
that the net cost to public finances from most recently arrived refugees would
be $8,000 per person annually over a lifetime.
The ongoing
success of the Sweden Democrats is yet another reminder how chaotic migration
has a great potential to upset society and political dynamics, possibly even
more so than economic developments. Whoever cares about the right to migrate
and open borders should really
keep this in mind. Despite some misgivings now and then, Europeans support
uncontrolled migration within Europe, maybe because the flows are all in all
limited and because it is easier to integrate Europeans in Europe than
non-Europeans. Uncontrolled migration at a global level however, finds very
little support. This is a reality which every European politician should heed.
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