tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-125530472024-03-14T04:39:28.932+01:00cleppe.bePieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.comBlogger312125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-10970732036350515082022-01-04T16:41:00.000+01:002022-01-04T16:41:00.693+01:00Recent articlesFor recent articles, take a look <a href="https://muckrack.com/pieter-cleppe/articles">here</a>, and of course at <a href="http://BrusselsReport.eu">BrusselsReport.eu</a>. Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-87942158750038511852021-02-10T14:19:00.003+01:002021-02-11T14:22:22.732+01:00Al Jazeera interview on the EU Commission's vaccine strategy<p><br /></p>
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NahMOPxxKoE" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-28186921029925063942021-02-07T14:35:00.001+01:002021-02-11T14:36:05.331+01:00Een nadere kijk op de gebrekkige Europese vaccin-aanpak<p>Oorspronkelijk gepubliceerd op <a href="https://doorbraak.be/een-nadere-kijk-op-de-gebrekkige-europese-vaccinaanpak/">Doorbraak</a></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 15pt;">Recent
kwam Europees Commissie-voorzitter Ursula von der Leyen onder vuur voor haar
aanpak van de aankoop van Covid-vaccins. Dit wordt - samen met fouten op
nationaal niveau en de eerder trage goedkeuring door het Europees
Geneesmiddelen Agentschap of EMA - meer en meer gezien als een
belangrijke reden waarom EU-lidstaten zo veel trager zijn met het vaccineren
tegen Covid dan Israel, het Verenigd Koninkrijk of de Verenigde Staten. </span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Terwijl
die twee laatsten </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-agreement-us-government-600"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">al</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> een akkoord sloten
met Pfizer in juli 2020, duurde het maar liefst tot november voor de Commissie
een gelijkaardige deal afsloot. Nochtans </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-biotech-sees-its-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-for-approval-by-december-11594373400?st=u9rrjos6g9h0i2p&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">berichtte</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> de Wall Street
Journal al op lovende wijze over het vaccin in juni. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ook
de aankoop van het AstraZeneca vaccin gebeurde nogal traag. De Britse regering
sloot hierover al een akkoord met de Brits-Zweedse farmagigant in </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1354019141284462593"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">mei</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, terwijl de Europese
Unie hiervoor maar liefst tot augustus wachtte. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Belangrijk
om daarbij te vermelden is dat vier Europese landen, namelijk Nederland,
Duitsland, Frankrijk en Italië - de zogenaamde "inclusieve vaccin
alliantie” (IVA), al los van de Commissie hadden onderhandeld met AstraZeneca
en er zelfs al een princiepsakkoord was in juni. Toen echter beval de Duitse
Kanselier, Angela Merkel, aan haar Minister van Volksgezondheid, Jens Spahn, om
de verantwoordelijkheid hiervoor over te hevelen naar de Europese Commissie.
Dat gebeurde dan ook, en samen met zijn drie collega’s schreef Spahn een eerder
verontschuldigende brief stuurde naar de Commissie. Bloomberg </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/merkel-s-hand-prints-are-all-over-germany-s-vaccine-failings?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">concludeert</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> dan ook dat "de
vingerafdrukken van Merkel overal te vinden zijn op het Duitse
vaccinfalen". <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Dat
het de Commissie dan nog eens drie maanden kostte om het akkoord met
AstraZeneca te bezegelen kan dan ook als een </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://capx.co/merkels-mistakes/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">zoveelste</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> falen op het conto van de Duitse
Kanselier worden geschreven, naast de Energiewende, het chaotische
immigratiebeleid en natuurlijk de miljardentransfers in het kader van de eurocrisis.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Het
lijkt er </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/blame-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-vaccine-debacle/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">sterk op</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> dat de reden waarom
de Commissie zo veel tijd nam is dat ze de prijs van de vaccins wilde drukken,
en ook wilde dat grote pharmabedrijven sterker aansprakelijk zouden zijn als
het misgaat. Voor het Pfizer-vaccin </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/FredCyrusRoeder/status/1344204793888321536"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">zou</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Israel 2,3% keer zo
veel betalen als de EU, terwijl Israel, ondanks een bevolking die maar 12%
bedraagt van de Duitse bevolking, wel 40% meer van dat vaccin krijgt dan de
Duitsers, hoewel dit vaccin in Duitsland werd ontwikkeld.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Deze
strategie heeft echter een bijzonder grote kostprijs, die de komende tijd
alleen maar duidelijker dreigt te worden. Volgens één </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1357344605717504012"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">schatting</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> zou de kost voor de
economieën van de EU hierdoor maar liefst oplopen tot 100 miljard euro,
aangezien het voor één tot twee maand langere lockdowns zou zorgen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Het
is wel zo dat landen zoals België niet gelukkig waren met het eenzijdige
initiatief van de vier landen van de "vaccin-alliantie", en men kan
zeker beargumenteren dat het een goed idee is voor EU-lidstaten om samen op te
treden tegenover farmaceutische bedrijven. Nietemin ware het dan toch beter
geweest dat de 27 EU-regeringen hiervoor een technisch team samenstelden,
eerder dan te vertrouwen op de hopeloos gepolitiseerde Europese Commissie. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Wie
er nog aan twijfelt dat de Commissie gepolitiseerd is en dat dit een probleem
is, moet enkel de reactie bekijken van de instelling op de aankondiging door
AstraZeneca dat het </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-astrazeneca-exc-idUSKBN29R2I9"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">slechts</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> 31 miljoen vaccins
zou kunnen leveren aan de EU tegen einde maart, in plaats van de beloofde 80
miljoen vaccins. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">De
Europese Commissie ging hierop volop de confrontatie aan met het farmabedrijf,
waarbij uiteindelijk ook het contract tussen de twee partijen werd publiek
gemaakt. Dat contract, dat onder Belgisch recht werd opgemaakt, is allesbehalve
duidelijk, maar volgens de Belgische advocaat Fernand Keuleneer </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1355154073381646337"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">heeft</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> de Commissie geen
poot om op te staan. Dat mag in elk geval niet verbazen, want reeds in juni </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1353979159521984513"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">berichtte</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> De Tijd dat
AstraZeneca moeite had om geschikte profielen te vinden voor de Belgische
fabriek waar de productieproblemen zich nu voordoen. Het is evident dat
AstraZeneca zich toen niet zou verbinden tot een resultaatsverbintenis. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">De
Europese Commissie vermoedt dat vaccins die in de EU werden geproduceerd naar
het VK werden overgebracht. Ook dat kan wel eens perfect volgens het contract
zijn, aangezien het VK drie maanden eerder een akkoord afsloot. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Naast
de openlijke ruzie met AstraZeneca opteerde de Europese Commissie voor een
nieuw regelgevend kader voor het beperken van de uitvoer van vaccins buiten de
EU. Puur protectionisme, nadat EC voorzitter von der Leyen maanden aan een stuk
had zitten waarschuwen voor “vaccinationalisme”. De lidstaten keurden het kader
echter snel goed, wellicht omdat ze ook maar al te gretig op zoek waren naar
een manier om de aandacht van eigen falen af te leiden. Het leidde </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1356015927016493064"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">allemaal wel</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> tot kwade reacties
uit Japan, Canada en Zuid-Korea. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">België
zelf, en met name Minister van Volksgezondheid Frank Vandenbroucke, lijkt
inmiddels met nog strengere wetgeving naar voren te komen. De Belgische
farmasector waarschuwde hiervoor reeds, </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1356923900232429568"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">stellende</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">: "Als deze wet
erdoor komt, zou dat een ramp zijn voor de positie van ‘pharma valley‘ die ons
land heeft.. Als hoofdzetels van die multinationals zien wat onze regering van
plan is, zullen ze niet nalaten hun productielijnen naar andere landen te
brengen"<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Sommige
journalisten omschreven dit soort beleid als "Europe first", maar de
vraag is of dergelijk protectionisme goed is voor de Europeanen zelf. De reden
waarom vele vaccins in Europa worden ontwikkeld is de sterke rechtsbescherming
en de aanwezigheid van een rijk ecosysteem van onderzoekers en farma-bedrijven.
Protectionisme zal enkel toekomstige investeringen in deze levensnoodzakelijke
en innovatieve economische sector bedreigen. Het is vreemd dat de federale regering
en de Europese Commissie hier zo makkelijk mee wegkomen, want als er één land
wel het centrum van de vaccinindustrie is, is het het onze. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"En
cours de route" zorgden von der Leyen en haar team nog voor een enorme
uitbarsting van woede in Ierland, toen het duidelijk werd dat in het voorstel
voor de Europese vaccin-exportrestricties een bepaling was inbegrepen die
grenscontroles tussen Ierland en Noord-Ierland zou mogelijk maken. Von der
Leyen lijkt hierover </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2021/0202/1194551-article-16-vaccines-brexit/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">op eigen
houtje</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
te hebben gehandeld, zonder de Ierse regering en zelfs haar eigen
Brexit-adviseur Michel Barnier, te hebben ingelicht. Barnier waarschuwde sinds
het Brexit-referendum zonder ophouden voor het gevaar dat grenscontroles daar
inhouden voor het vredesproces. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Het
doet denken aan hoe von der Leyen samen met Merkel op het einde van Duitse
EU-voorzitterschap verleden jaar snel nog een investeringsverdrag tussen de EU
en China </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1357345232212291589"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">bezegelde</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, dit tot ongenoegen
van onder meer Belgische, Poolse, Italiaanse en Spaanse diplomaten.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Von
der Leyen probeerde na het Ierse debacle eerst de schuld te schuiven op de
Litouwse EU-Commissaris voor handelsbeleid, Valdis Dombrovskis, maar moest
uiteindelijk toch toegeven dat zij verantwoordelijk was. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Volgens
diplomaten </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1357344603754557441"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">zou</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> het vertrouwen in von
der Leyen bij de lidstaten zijn geschonden door dit alles, en zelfs een
opstappen wordt niet voor onmogelijk gehouden. Het is echter onwaarschijnlijk
dat de beschermvrouw van von der Leyen, Angela Merkel, haar zal laten vallen,
omdat dit ook meteen een erkennen van eigen falen zou inhouden.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ondertussen
blijven de onthullingen maar komen. Voor het vaccin van Johnson & Johnson </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/VKJudit/status/1357273385747767297"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">bedong</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> de V.S. alvast dat
het voor Europa levering zou verkrijgen. Ook sloot de EU nog steeds geen
overeenkomst voor het Novavax-vaccin. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">De
laatste strohalm die de Europese politici nu lijken te grijpen om de aandacht
af te leiden, is om de vaccins waarvan ze er te weinig konden bemachtigen in
vraag te stellen. Von der Leyen alweer heeft gesuggereerd dat het VK de
"veiligheid en efficiëntie" - regels niet in acht heeft genomen door
zo snel te starten met het AstraZeneca vaccin, en ook de Franse President
Macron liet zich laatdunkend uit hiervoor. Het leidde tot een opmerking van de
Britse Professor John Bell, actief aan de medische faculteit in Oxford:
"wanneer je geen vaccin hebt, kan je maar best de vraag ernaar
verminderen". <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">De
Belgische premier Alexander De Croo was misschien wel de eerste die deze
strategie </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1343858761618882561"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">toepastte</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, wanneer hij stelde op
20 december: "In het VK hebben ze hun bevolking als proefkonijnen
genomen." Dat dezelfde politicus in die periode ook de "strijd tegen
fake news" als groot speerpunt zag, kan men ironisch noemen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Natuurlijk
is het goed mogelijk dat - achter bekeken - het VK een fout heeft gemaakt, maar
ook het EMA keurde ondertussen wel dit vaccin goed, al houdt het een slag om de
arm voor de 65-plussers, niet omdat het niet veilig zou zijn, maar omdat er te
weinig data zijn om aan te tonen dat het evengoed werkt. Ondertussen zouden
nieuwe data volgens hun Britse collega’s aantonen dat het vaccin </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1357679186874425346"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">wel degelijk
effectief</span></a></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">
is voor ouderen. Allemaal medische excuses die de Europese politiek nu maar al
te gretig gebruikt om eigen falen te verdoezelen. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Een
even effectieve aanpak als in het V.K., Israel of in de V.S. zou er voor hebben
gezorgd dat nu duizenden landgenoten zouden zijn beschermd tegen Covid in de
twee komende maanden, nu het virus nog goed kan gedijen omdat de bevolking
binnen leeft. Hopelijk neemt de virus-circulatie tussen mei en augustus net
zoals in 2020 opnieuw sterk af, waardoor beleidsmakers enkele maanden ruimte te
krijgen om voor een hoge vaccinatiegraad tegen september te zorgen, wanneer het
weer kouder wordt. Ondertussen wordt er in Europa echter bitter weinig
verantwoordelijkheid genomen voor politiek falen. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-15362613018720100302021-01-29T14:23:00.001+01:002021-02-11T14:24:03.578+01:00On the erosion of the rule of law in the EU and its neighbourhood<i>Originally published on <a href="http://europeanpost.co/on-the-erosion-of-the-rule-of-law-in-the-eu-and-its-neighbourhood/">The European Post</a> </i><div><br /></div><div><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The launch this week of Transparency International’s annual <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020/index/nzl" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">corruption index</a> highlights something that EU watchers cannot fail to have missed in the past year: across Eastern Europe, both members and neighbours of the EU have been backsliding when it comes to the rule of law. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Whether it’s membership candidates like Bosnia, or well-established members of the EU like Hungary, the index charts a marked decline in standards.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Given recent developments in Poland and Hungary, this will not come as a surprise to even the most casual observer. For all the relative successes of the EU, it has failed to influence its Eastern European partners and neighbours and draw them in the right direction when it comes to the rule of law, even if these countries have benefited economically from the single market. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">At the end of last year, new Hungarian legislation was <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/hungarian-opposition-forces-unite-to-beat-orban-in-2022/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">passed</a> of which critics said <a href="https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarian-election-law-to-be-changed-making-it-harder-for-opposition-parties-to-set-up-their-national-list-of-deputies/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">that</a> it was attempting to constrain opposition forces. A Hungarian law on foreign-funded NGOs was <a href="https://euobserver.com/political/149940" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">struck down</a> by the EU’s top court last June. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In Poland, a government-appointed chamber which was <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/eu-sets-poland-new-ultimatum-in-judicial-freedom-case/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">created</a> in 2017 to sanction judges, is one of many controversial legal reforms. The European Commission thinks it “continues to take a grip on Polish judges and threatens their independence.” The ECJ has ordered Poland to suspend the chamber. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Also media freedom in Poland and Hungary is a cause of concern. In Poland, state-controlled refiner PKN-Orlen has <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-pkn-orlen-press-takeover-media-government-andrzej-duda/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">bought</a> the ownership ofmost of the country’s regional newspapers, while a joint mission by several journalism bodies has <a href="https://europeanjournalists.org/blog/2019/12/03/new-report-hungary-dismantles-media-freedom-and-pluralism/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">concluded</a> that “since 2010, the Hungarian government has systematically dismantled media independence, freedom and pluralism “. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">So far, the European Union has failed to do anything about this. Perhaps one should be careful to use the instruments that are in theory at the EU’s disposal, which including <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_7_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union#:~:text=The%20European%20Council%20can%20vote,alter%20or%20lift%20such%20sanctions." rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">suspending voting rights</a> in the Council of the EU and fundamentally, it may not be in the EU’s gift to change rule of law backsliding from the outside. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">However, one thing that the EU could do is not to financially fuel institutions that are vulnerable to corruption. Richard Sulík, who currently serves as Slovakia’s Economy Minister, once <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/605682480595775488" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">stated</a> that “the more EU subsidies go to Slovakia, the more corruption there is”. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There seems to some truth to that. Reports of government leaders in <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/568359805171191808" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Romania</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/hungary-orban-balaton/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Hungary</a> or the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190601-eu-says-czech-pm-conflict-interest-wants-money-back" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Czech Republic</a> enriching themselves or their environment through EU funds have been abound. <a href="https://www.austriancenter.com/italy-central-bank-redistribution-corruption/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">According</a> to OLAF, the EU’s anti-fraud body, “the structural funds sector remains at the core of OLAF’s investigative activity”. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Another EU body, the European Court of Auditors (ECA), has <a href="https://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2019/05/auditors-want-tougher-action-eu-fraud" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">pointed</a> <a href="https://www.eca.europa.eu/en/Pages/DocItem.aspx?did=49940" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">out</a>that “cohesion policy represents one third of EU budget but accounts for nearly 40% of all reported fraud cases and almost three quarters of the total financial amounts involved in these cases”. In particular, it has criticized EU member states for not being effective enough to combat this, complaining that “in a significant proportion of cases OLAF closes with a recommendation to recover unduly paid EU money, either no such recovery takes place or the amount recovered is significantly lower than that recommended”. OLAF, on its turn, has also questioned the EU Commission’s statistics on fraud, noting that Hungary and Estonia have reported a lower level of EU funding irregularities than Belgium and the Netherlands, which they do not find credible given their lower ranking on international corruption indexes.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">According to an analysis by Deutsche Welle, Hungary and Poland secured a “<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-hungary-and-poland-win-at-merkels-last-eu-summit/a-55911153" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">win</a>” last December, when EU leaders agreed to delay implementation of the European Union’s so-called “Rule of Law Mechanism”, which is supposed to cut payouts of EU funds to member states <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-hungary-and-poland-win-at-merkels-last-eu-summit/a-55911153" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">violating</a> the rule of law. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Of course, it’s political science fiction that EU governments will ever seriously engage in condemning each other’s rule of law, also because the danger the employ a “double standard”. Spain’s tackling of Catalan nationalists has been often singled out as an example here, rightly or wrongly. The only way to prevent rule of law violations is to simply end large scale EU transfers. This may even benefit net receivers, counterintuitively. A 2016 <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-budget-jean-claude-juncker-gdp-europe-needs-to-slash-its-budget-to-survive/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">study</a> by the Centre for Economic Policy Research concluded that “EU structural funds [are] negatively correlated with regional growth” and “[do] not seem to contribute effectively to foster income convergence across regions.” </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Yet, with the EU’s “Next Generation” fund, meant to support EU countries suffering from the fall-out of Covid, EU member states with a bad “rule of law” track record are about to receive even more EU cash. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Another example of the EU seemingly unable to seriously stand for its own values is its newly agreed “investment pact” with China. Of course doing business with China is a great idea, which not only benefits both sides but also does support the continuing emergence of a middle class in China, which ultimately is the best guarantee for a better protection of human rights. Then, the EU is <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/frances-riester-eu-will-not-ask-china-to-sign-forced-labor-ban-before-ratifying-investment-deal/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">not asking</a> China to sign a ban on forced labor, an issue particularly problematic with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jul/23/virtually-entire-fashion-industry-complicit-in-uighur-forced-labour-say-rights-groups-china" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Uyghurs</a>, before ratifying the investment deal, instead merely requesting a “calendar” for reforms. To attach all kinds of non-trade aspects to trade deals is a bad idea, as it would lead to never-ending discussions, but a ban on forced labour is such an obvious minimal condition to allow trade that it’s astonishing the EU did not obtain this. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Also Turkey is still benefiting from <a href="https://eufactcheck.eu/factcheck/true-the-eu-continues-to-pay-to-turkey/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">EU cash</a>. This despite the Turkish government <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0c097861-7c02-45c4-88b5-5d0d6af32fb8" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">tightening</a> its control over civil society, whereby the interior ministry is able to stop the activities of NGOs under the pretext of vague terrorism charges. Again, it would be naive to think that the EU is able to stop the likes of Erdogan, but the EU could start with no longer hand over its cash to Turkey.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A similar issue is going on with Serbia, which only last year signed a deal with the EU to <a href="https://seenews.com/news/serbia-signs-contract-to-receive-1385-mln-euro-of-eus-ipa-funds-686524#:~:text=BELGRADE%20(Serbia)%2C%20February%207,integration%20minister%20Jadranka%20Joksimovic%20said." rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">receive </a> 138.5 million euro in “Pre-Accession Assistance”. This despite years of <a href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/2018/07/24/nature-of-democratic-backsliding-in-europe-pub-76868" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">democratic</a> <a href="https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2020/06/25/medak-backslide-of-democracy-in-serbia-continues-after-the-parliamentary-election/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">backsliding</a>.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Also EU hopeful <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/28/georgia-wants-to-be-a-part-of-europe-says-president" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Georgia</a>, which just this past December reaffirmed its commitment to the membership process, has witnessed several notable lapses in standards. Voter intimidation, the politisation of business, undermining foreign investment through expropriations, and a lack of judicial independence <a href="http://europeanpost.co/is-change-on-the-way-in-georgia/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">continue</a> to undermine its progress.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Also undermining of foreign investment is a concern in both EU member states and the EU’s neighbourhood. The EU has been accused <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9106e17a-0d42-4097-9e85-7e37a7c2c6b2" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">of not doing much about</a> Poland’s “repolonisation programme”, whereby private businesses would be pressured to sell their assets. It may not surprise then </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">that few across the EU batted an eyelid when the Georgian government appointed a special manager to the foreign-owned internet company Caucasus Online, preventing it from paying its debts to Georgian banks and allowing the government to seize the company’s assets, while preventing its board and shareholders from challenging this decision in court. Never mind that this may <a href="http://europeanpost.co/is-change-on-the-way-in-georgia/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">amount to</a> a violation of the EU-Georgia Association Agreement.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To sum up: in many cases, the EU has no powers to stop the rule of law from eroding within its borders, let alone in its neighbourhood. Nevertheless, the little it could do it often hasn’t been doing. The very minimal that we should expect from the EU, is at least a little bit of ambition. </p></div>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-71559198129086238352021-01-28T14:32:00.001+01:002021-02-11T14:33:42.713+01:00Bepaalt de AstraZeneca-discussie het verder verloop van de Europese vaccinatiecampagne?<p><i>Oorspronkelijk gepubliceerd op <a href="https://businessam.be/opinions/bepaalt-de-astrazeneca-discussie-het-verder-verloop-van-de-europese-vaccinatiecampagne/">BusinessAM</a></i></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: bolder;">Elke dag wordt het duidelijker hoe <a href="https://twitter.com/epironet/status/1354314350912266241" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">slecht</a> de vaccinatiecampagne tegen Covid in de EU verloopt in vergelijking met het Verenigd Koninkrijk, de Verenigde Staten en uiteraard Israel, dat nu <a href="https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1354514666903511042" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">reeds de helft</a> van de bevolking inentte. </span></p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Hier zijn verschillende <a href="https://businessam.be/een-kritische-analyse-van-het-europese-vaccin-beleid/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">verklaringen</a> voor, en het is goed mogelijk dat er heel wat beterschap op komst is, maar dan zal dit in elk geval nauw samenhangen met één vaccin, dat van het Brits-Zweedse AstraZeneca. Dat is cruciaal is, althans <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1352265157800562697" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">volgens</a> Duits parlementslid Karl Lauterbach, de gezondheidsexpert van de sociaaldemocratische coalitiepartner van Angela Merkel’s CDU-CSU, die stelt dat het “van het AstraZeneca vaccin [afhangt] of Duitsland het al dan niet goed zal doen” op vlak van de vaccinatiecampagne. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">AstraZeneca: 36 procent van de vaccins die de EU in mei verwacht</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">De AstraZeneca – vaccins maken <a href="https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1353682711769214977" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">zowat 36 procent</a> uit van de dosissen vaccin die de EU in mei verwacht. Ook voor ons land is het belangrijk, <a href="https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20210128_93927957" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">omdat</a> het een kwart uitmaakt van alle door België bestelde vaccins, en ook omdat het <a href="https://www.redactie24.be/coronavirus/coronavaccin-astrazeneca-heeft-heel-belangrijk-voordeel-bewaren-gewone-koelkast-116912" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">eenvoudigweg</a> in de koelkast kan worden bewaard, en niet in de diepvries op min 70 graden, zoals met het Pfizer vaccin. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Recent waren er <a href="https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/farma-biotech/Waalse-fabriek-doet-vaccinproductie-AstraZeneca-sputteren/10279486?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">productieproblemen</a> bij de Belgische fabriek die mee AstraZeneca – vaccins produceert en specifiek verantwoordelijk is voor <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1353721415044915200" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">virale vectoren</a>, wat er voor zorgt dat EU-lidstaten tegen einde maart geen 80 maar <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-germany-says-oxfordastrazeneca-jab-should-not-be-given-to-over-65s-12201458" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">slechts</a> 31 miljoen dosissen van het vaccin zouden krijgen. Die problemen waren niet onverwacht, want <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1353724169486290947" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">reeds in juni</a> was er twijfel of men wel genoeg geschikt personeel zou vinden om deze ongeziene operatie tot een goed einde te brengen. Men moet immers in een paar maanden klaarspelen waar men in andere omstandigheden enkele jaren tijd voor heeft. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">AstraZeneca werd hiervoor <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1354531040984002562" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">terechtgewezen</a> door de Europese Unie, die ondertussen zelf <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1354399006307332098" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">onder vuur</a> is gekomen voor haar aankooppolitiek van vaccins. Volgens de Europese Commissaris <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-slams-astrazeneca-but-fails-in-push-for-vaccine-stella-kyriakides-pascal-soriot/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">schond</a> AstraZeneca het contract dat met de EU was gesloten. Ze <a href="https://twitter.com/Mikepeeljourno/status/1354427259155845121" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">wil</a> dat het bedrijf voor het VK bestemde vaccins aan de EU levert.</p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Geen resultaatsverbintenis…</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Pascal Soriot, de Franse <a href="https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1354161167850221569" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">ceo</a> van AstraZeneca <a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20210127_93931127" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">ontkent</a> dat er sprake is van contractbreuk: “Het contract met het Verenigd Koninkrijk werd drie maanden voor het Europese contract getekend. Daardoor hadden we drie maanden extra om alle problemen in de productie op te lossen.” </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Volgens hem is er in het contract ook geen resultaatsverbintenis voor zijn bedrijf: “We verbonden ons tot niets. We zeiden alleen dat we ons uiterste best gingen doen. De reden waarom we dit zeiden, is dat Europa toen (bij de sluiting van het contract in augustus, red.) ongeveer op hetzelfde moment als het Verenigd Koninkrijk leveringen wilde krijgen, hoewel het contract drie maanden later getekend was. Daarom zeiden we: ‘Oké, we gaan ons best doen, we gaan het proberen, maar we kunnen ons contractueel niet verbinden omdat we drie maanden achterliggen op het Verenigd Koninkrijk.’” </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">… enkel een inspanningsverbintenis</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Het contract is niet openbaar gemaakt, maar in gelijkaardige contracten, met Curevac bijvoorbeeld, is <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1353977685479985157" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">enkel</a> een inspanningsverbintenis voorzien. Het zou verbazing wekken als AstraZeneca zomaar openlijk zijn contractuele verbintenissen zou schenden. Verder lijkt het onwaarschijnlijk dat het bedrijf een resultaatsverbintenis zou hebben onderhandeld, gezien het feit dat al in juni duidelijk was dat de Belgische fabriek waarmee het bedrijf samenwerkt moeite zou hebben om het geplande tempo te volgen, onder meer door de moeilijkheid geschikt personeel te vinden.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Wat is er dan aan de hand? Zoekt de Europese Commissie een zondebok voor eigen falen, zoals <a href="https://twitter.com/jeroenbossaert/status/1354371969823727616" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">sommigen</a> suggereren, zeker nu nationale media <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1354191107505139713" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">harde</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1354399006307332098" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">kritiek</a> op de EU geven? De supranationale bureaucratie <a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20210125_96612734" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">stelde immers ook voor</a> om zo snel mogelijk een register aan te leggen over het aantal vaccins tegen covid-19 dat vanuit de EU wordt uitgevoerd, een nauwelijks verhulde <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/eu-threatens-to-block-covid-vaccine-exports-amid-astrazeneca-shortfall" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">dreiging</a> om de export van vaccins aan banden te leggen. Diezelfde Europese Commissie <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/rich-nations-snap-up-vaccine-stocks-in-global-race-for-jab/1507595/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">waarschuwde</a> nochtans tot dusver steeds voor “vaccin-nationalisme” en beweerde enkele weken terug nog <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1354493041327943681" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">genoeg</a> vaccins te hebben. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Peter Liese, Europarlementslid voor de Duitse CDU, ging zelfs nog een stap verder, en <a href="https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1354483646602817540" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">dreigde</a> openlijk met “het blokkeren van de uitvoer van BioNTech, het Pfizer vaccin, naar het Verenigd Koninkrijk, dat “beter twee keer nadenkt” – daarbij negerend dat AstraZeneca een privaat bedrijf is. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">België, het vaccinproducerende land bij uitstek</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Alle partijen hebben er uiteraard belang bij dat dit in der minne wordt geregeld, maar als het contractueel is vastgelegd dat het VK recht heeft op vaccins die door AstraZeneca in de EU worden geproduceerd, moet dat worden gehonoreerd. Zeker voor ons land, dat zowat het vaccinproducerende land bij uitstek is, kan deze belangrijke economische sector schade oplopen door populistisch Europees vaccinprotectionisme.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">In juni, kort nadat het VK een akkoord met AstraZeneca bereikte, stond het bedrijf ook dicht bij <a href="https://twitter.com/TBspekschoor/status/1354160353932947458" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">een</a> akkoord met vier EU-lidstaten – Nederland, Duitsland, Frankrijk en Italië, die <a href="https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2020/06/03/samenwerking-duitsland-frankrijk-italie-en-nederland-in-verwerven-van-vaccins-voor-europese-en-andere-landen" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">gezamenlijk</a> onderhandelden. Op dat moment <a href="https://businessam.be/een-kritische-analyse-van-het-europese-vaccin-beleid/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">beval</a> Angela Merkel echter, onder meer na <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1354196863369490434" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">protest</a> van België, aan haar Minister van Volksgezondheid dat de Europese Commissie de verantwoordelijkheid voor die onderhandeling moet krijgen, en zo geschiedde. Toen <a href="https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1354019145147420677" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">duurde het echter nog tot augustus</a> voor een akkoord werd <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-the-eu-to-blame-for-astrazeneca-s-vaccine-supply-problem-" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">bereikt</a> met AstraZeneca. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">EU prioriteerde prijs boven snelheid</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Volgens Politico Europe “<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-coronavirus-vaccine-struggle-pfizer-biontech-astrazeneca/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">prioritiseerde</a> de Europese Unie de prijs van het vaccin over snelheid” en “verkreeg de EU wel [vaccins] aan de laagste prijzen ter wereld, maar aan welke kost?” </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Het is natuurlijk zo dat als alle EU-landen afzonderlijk hadden onderhandeld, er ook serieuze spanningen waren ontstaan, maar was het uiteindelijk wel zo verstandig om de Europese Commissie, een supranationale bureaucratie die maar al te vaak graag een eigen agenda volgt, verantwoordelijkheid te geven voor dit enorm belangrijke proces? Was het niet beter geweest dat de 27 lidstaten buiten de EU om een onderhandelingsteam hiervoor de opdracht gaven? De <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-slams-astrazeneca-but-fails-in-push-for-vaccine-stella-kyriakides-pascal-soriot/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">agressieve</a> communicatie van de Europese Commissie, met een beschuldiging van contractbreuk door AstraZeneca, kan als extra argument dienen hiervoor. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">De zogenaamde “politisering” van de Europese Commissie</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Dit is één van de gevolgen van de zogenaamde “politisering” van de Europese Commissie, een doelstelling die voormalig Commissievoorzitter Juncker openlijk steunde, al was de Commissie voordien natuurlijk ook wel politiek. Het probleem met een gepolitiseerde Commissie is dat zo’n instelling wel grote macht krijgt, maar tegelijk veel minder onder druk komt te staan van publieke opinie, de nationale pers en politieke backbenchers dan nationale regeringen. Er is wel een Europees Parlement, maar in de praktijk fungeert dit <a href="https://capx.co/we-should-get-rid-of-the-eus-pointless-parliament/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">niet</a> als controleorgaan op de Commissie, maar eerder als een motor die de Commissie net aanzet om nog meer geld uit te geven of nog meer macht te verwerven. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Waar zijn de ‘dealmakers’?</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Zo keurt het Europees Parlement steeds <a href="https://capx.co/we-should-get-rid-of-the-eus-pointless-parliament/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">zonder morren</a> de Europese uitgaven goed, ook al worden daarbij soms serieuze kanttekeningen geplaatst door de Europese Rekenkamer. De Europese Commissie bestaat uit niet-verkozen, benoemde ambtenaren, en is helemaal niet geschikt om grote beleidskeuzes te gaan maken. De optie nemen om voor een lage prijs eerder dan voor snelheid van levering van de vaccins te gaan, is er zo één. Technisch gezien was die keuze wel gedekt door de 27 regeringen, maar die laten de gepolitiseerde Europese Commissie nu natuurlijk maar al te graag de volle laag krijgen, wat moeilijker zou zijn geweest bij een technisch onderhandelingsteam aangesteld door de 27. De hoofdschuldigen van de politisering van de Europese Commissie zijn dus de nationale regeringen.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Laat ons nu echter vooral hopen dat de productieproblemen bij AstraZeneca snel worden verholpen en dat de vaccinatie in Europa dan voluit op gang kan komen. Bovenop de discussie over de productie komen nu <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55839885" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">Duitse</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1354775315059380226" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">twijfels</a> over de vraag of het AstraZeneca vaccin wel helpt bij 65-plussers. Het probleem lijkt een <a href="https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1354781400071860230" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">gebrek</a> aan data <a href="https://twitter.com/VKJudit/status/1354796246460989440" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">te</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/rhysblakely/status/1354791585137963022" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">zijn</a> om hierover uitspraak te kunnen doen.</p><p><span style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: bolder;"></span></p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Meer nog dan wat in Europa gebeurt zijn de volgende weken cruciaal om te zien hoe de pandemie evolueert in vaccinatie-koploper <a href="https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1354806088944685061" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">Israel</a>. Indien de huidige vaccins toch te weinig zouden aanslaan op de nieuwe varianten van het virussen, <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1354505053151784960" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;">verwacht</a> men daar dat de exit uit de pandemie niet in de komende maand, maar pas ten vroegste binnen een half jaar kan beginnen, gezien er dan nieuwe vaccins nodig zullen zijn.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-61480507465332308932021-01-28T14:25:00.001+01:002021-02-11T14:26:20.105+01:00How border closures halted Covid-19 in Finland<p><i> Originally published by <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-border-closures-halted-covid-19-in-finland">The Spectator</a></i></p><p><br /></p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">ack in April, I listed <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/five-measures-that-could-prevent-future-lockdowns" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">five measures</a> governments can take to prevent the spread of Covid in order to prevent any need for economically devastating lockdowns, drawing on the experience of some Asian nations.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">Four of the measures (test and trace, healthcare capacity, facemasks, and good communication about distancing) have all proven their worth, but the fifth may be the most important of all: imposing border checks in time.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">That’s exactly what Taiwan did well. It has <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2021/01/15/taiwans-success-battling-covid-19-has-it-ready-to-plan-a-reopening-of-its-borders/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">managed</a> to keep its number of Covid cases down to just 842, with a population of nearly 24 million, by halting flights from China early on and implementing strict quarantine rules.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">In Europe, border checks haven’t been as stringent, which may well have played a role in the emergence of a ‘second wave’ in fall 2020, with hospitalisation <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1352574475666132992/photo/1" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">going up</a> in <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-icu-patients-per-million?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-03-01..latest" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">all</a> of Europe.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">A notable exception though is Finland, which was <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/finland-and-norway-avoid-covid-19-lockdowns-but-keep-the-virus-at-bay-11605704407" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">able to avoid</a> the second wave altogether, despite keeping its economy and society largely open.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">Its <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/finland-and-norway-avoid-covid-19-lockdowns-but-keep-the-virus-at-bay-11605704407" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">method</a> for success, along with Norway, was ‘a brief, targeted lockdown in March, followed by tight border controls with mandatory testing and quarantine for all travellers.’</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">Throughout 2020, Finland imposed the <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.ft.com/content/61dccfaa-0871-48a2-80ac-dbe6d5b5b5f8" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">strictest</a> criteria in Europe on foreign visitors. It <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/entry-restrictions" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">banned</a> citizens from high-incidence countries from coming into the country, with exceptions for essential reasons. Those entering the country were still forced to quarantine, for a period that could be shortened with negative tests results.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">Finland only really allowed recreational travel with the rest of Europe for a few weeks in July, before border controls were <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/07/flash-alert-2020-330.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">reinstated</a> for arrivals from Austria, Slovenia and Switzerland, because of a rise in the infection rates in these countries. The Finnish government then <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/08/flash-alert-2020-369.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">stepped up</a> its travel restrictions throughout August. At the moment, a recreational trip to Finland is <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.visitfinland.com/article/practical-travel-information-for-travelers-to-finland-during-coronavirus-pandemic/#fb6f19f9" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">only allowed</a> if you live in the Vatican, Australia, Rwanda, Singapore, Thailand, New Zealand or South Korea.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">The UK – like many other European countries – has been much more lenient when it comes to border restrictions. It has <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/08/flash-alert-2020-367.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">allowed</a> <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55681861" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">people</a> to travel to countries on a ‘travel corridor’ list without facing quarantine on return.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">Finland and Norway had a similar system, but they were much stricter when it came to judging countries ‘safe’. In early September, Norway <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.thelocal.no/20200904/what-are-the-current-travel-rules-for-norway-residents" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">categorised</a> the whole of non-Scandinavian Europe as ‘red’ – meaning you had to quarantine on return. While in July, Finland went along with the EU’s recommendation to lift some border restrictions, but <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/07/flash-alert-2020-313.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">added</a> extra conditions for travellers (related to each country's number of infected people per capita) beyond those required by the EU.</p><div class="ContentPageBodyAd-module__ad__outer" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 4rem calc(50% - 50vw); text-align: center;"><div class="" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><div class="AdSlot-module__ad-slot undefined spectator-ad-presentation-default spectator-ad-visible" style="background-color: #fbfbfb; box-sizing: inherit; transition: opacity 0.15s ease-in-out 0s;"></div></div></div><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">There have been no ‘quarantine hotels’ in Finland, and travel restrictions were <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://newsnowfinland.fi/finland-international/international-travel-lack-of-enforcement-on-self-isolation-highlighted-as-serious-coronavirus-risks" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">not as strict</a> as in Taiwan, but simply banning recreational travel from high-incidence countries, while <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://wiki.unece.org/display/CTRBSBC/Finland" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">requiring</a> a negative test result from the few that still were allowed to visit, did go a long way.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">‘<a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=NZL~FIN~TWN~BEL%C2%AEion=World" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">Excess</a> <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1346806497364373505" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">mortality</a>’ was near zero in both Finland and Norway in 2020, which sharply contrasts with how Belgium (26 per cent more deaths than average), the UK (18 per cent) or even Sweden (12 per cent) <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1346806497364373505https:/twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1341499710327152643/photo/1" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">fared</a> in 2020. And Finland and Norway escaped the lockdowns imposed in those European countries with high excess mortality.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">This indicates that it may have been possible to avoid subsequent lockdowns and a lot of deaths if only border restrictions had been imposed on time.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">There hasn’t been much public opposition against the Finnish Covid measures, presumably because there hasn’t been a proper lockdown since Spring. Even back then, Finland’s lockdown was <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.ft.com/content/61dccfaa-0871-48a2-80ac-dbe6d5b5b5f8" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">less severe</a> than in much of Europe, with shops and public transport remaining open, and no curfews being put in place.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">73 per cent of Finns <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-finland-sweden-role-model/a-55664117" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">say</a> they are coping well with the current restrictions, which <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-01-22..latest&country=BEL~FIN~DEU~NOR~GBR%C2%AEion=World" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">are</a> more lenient than elsewhere in Europe. According to one – rather surprising – statistic, 23 per cent of Finns even <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-finland-sweden-role-model/a-55664117" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">claimed</a> their lives had improved noticeably during lockdown, which according to the Finnish social psychologist Nelli Hankonen <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-finland-sweden-role-model/a-55664117" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">is</a> due to the fact that ‘We're not very sociable and prefer to be alone’. The fact that Finnish bars and restaurants have been open non-stop since Spring may suggest otherwise.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">Sweden has been a much touted example of ‘Corona freedom’, but according to the ‘<a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-01-22..latest&country=BEL~FIN~DEU~NOR~GBR%C2%AEion=World" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">Government Stringency Index</a>’, Norway and Finland have actually been considerably more liberal during the pandemic, while avoiding Sweden’s relatively high death rates. It’s hard to escape the conclusion that this was thanks to strict border control.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">There is a case to be made that Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France would have struggled to police their borders like Finland, but for the UK, as an island, this excuse cannot be used.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">As a result, at the moment, when the whole of Europe is fearing or suffering from the ‘third wave’, Finns <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1353702438147153921" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">can</a> enjoy a beer in a bar or meet each other – with some <a class="Hyperlink2-module__link--political Hyperlink2-module__link--political--underline" href="https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/information-on-coronavirus/current-restrictions" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d30d1d; text-decoration-color: rgba(211, 13, 29, 0.3);" target="_blank">minimal</a> restrictions – in restaurants.</p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;">As dreadful as harsh border measures may be in ordinary times, it’s hard to deny their effectiveness during a pandemic. Looking back at 2020, it seems fair to say the likes of Taiwan, Finland and Norway were right to double down on border checks in order to protect fundamental freedoms, social life, the economy and, most of all, public health.</p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-40905590109659873222021-01-19T14:37:00.001+01:002021-02-11T14:38:10.072+01:00Het brexit-handelsakkoord afgewogen<p><i>Oorspronkelijk gepubliceerd op <a href="https://doorbraak.be/het-brexit-handelsakkoord-afgewogen/">Doorbraak</a></i></p><p><b><span style="color: #222222;">Het
Brexit-handelsakkoord afgewogen</span></b></p><p>
</p><p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Net voor Kerst kwamen
de Europese Unie en het Verenigd Koninkrijk alsnog een handelsakkoord overeen.
Dat was uitermate laat, zeker omdat de nieuwe regeling al inging vanaf 1
januari, waardoor er bitter weinig tijd was voor ondernemingen om zich voor te
bereiden.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Het Verenigd Koninkrijk
verliet de EU formeel begin 2020, maar bleef gedurende 2020 volledig toegang
houden tot de EU, zonder tarifaire of niet-tarifaire belemmeringen, waarbij het
land wel geen eigen handelsbeleid mocht voeren en ook niet mocht afwijken van
Europese regelgeving. Dat verandert nu. Hieronder maak ik een overzicht van de
voordelen maar ook de tekortkomingen van de nieuwe relatie tussen de Europese
Unie en het Verenigd Koninkrijk, dat samen met de Verenigde Staten en China één
van de drie belangrijke handelspartners van de EU is.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><b><span style="color: #222222;">Wat is er goed aan
het akkoord?</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Het belangrijkste
voordeel van het handelsakkoord is dat er geen douanetarieven komen op de
onderlinge handel, vooralsnog en met wat voorbehoud, wat ik hieronder
uiteenzet. Volgens KU Leuven Professor Hylke Vandenbussche zijn op die manier
toch een paar tienduizendtal jobs </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/nieuws/belgische-bedrijven-over-brexit-hoe-meer-informatie-ik-verzamelde-hoe-onduidelijker-de-situatie-voor-me-werd~a7e67ecc/">gered</a><span style="color: #222222;">, al zouden volgens haar zelfs met een “deal" - nog
steeds tot 10.000 jobs kunnen sneuvelen in ons land.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Een ander goed aspect
van het zogenaamde "EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement" of
"TCA" is dat er meer competitie op vlak van regelgeving en
handelsbeleid komt. Net zoals op vlak van Covid-beleid Europese regeringen
onder vuur kunnen komen na eenvoudige vergelijking met hoe men de zaken in het
buitenland aanpakt, zal men een dergelijke dynamiek ook meer zien op vlak van
regelgeving.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Het is waarschijnlijk
dat het Verenigd Koninkrijk in eerste instantie niet ver zal afwijken van
Europese regelgeving, bijvoorbeeld voor chemische producten, data of financiële
dienstverlening, maar het staat in de sterren geschreven dat dit zal gebeuren,
zeker indien de Europese Unie het huidige pad van steeds meer betuttelende
regelgeving blijft bewandelen. Ook op vlak van handel krijgen de Britten nu de
kans om beter te doen dan de EU, al moet het worden gezegd dat de Europese Unie
op dit vlak wel degelijk uitstekend werk leverde de laatste 20 jaar. Indien de
Britten handelsakkoorden met India, Israel en de Verenigde Staten zouden
sluiten, zal de Europese industrie ongetwijfeld meer druk zetten op de Europese
Commissie om dat ook te proberen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Het akkoord voorziet
dat als de Britten te ver afwijken van de Europese regelgevende standaarden,
een onafhankelijk scheidsgerecht kan beslissen om de EU toe te laten toch
douanetarieven op te leggen, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1349996035075158016">indien er
kan worden aangetoond</a><span style="color: #222222;"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/jimbrunsden/status/1350056243155660803">dat</a><span style="color: #222222;"> de afwijking zo significant is dat ze een materiële
impact op handel of investeringen heeft, wat niet zo evident is. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Het is een goede zaak
dat men voor een onafhankelijk arbitragesysteem heeft gekozen en niet voor een
rol voor het nogal activistische Europese Hof van Justitie, iets waar de EU
lang voor pleitte. Men kan het vreemd vinden dat de hoogste rechtbank van één
van beide partijen de rol krijgt om geschillen uit te klaren, maar tot op de
dag van vandaag probeert de Europese Unie dit op te dringen aan Zwitserland. Op
dit moment is in de onderlinge Zwitsers-Europese handelsrelatie nog geen
judiciële geschillenprocedure voorzien. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">De Zwitsers hebben dit
steeds formeel geweigerd, dus het Britse precedent kan er nu misschien voor
zorgen dat de Europese Unie deze extreme eis opgeeft, waardoor eindelijk ook
vooruitgang kan komen in het verder vrijmaken van de handel tussen de EU en
Zwitserland.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">In elk geval wordt het
nu dus makkelijker voor de Britten om het </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1346778716903497728">anders te
doen</a><span style="color: #222222;">. Is GDPR wel de beste manier om data te
beschermen? Is het omslachtige en dure Europese REACH-registratiesysteem voor
chemische producten wel het meest innovatievriendelijk? En hoe wordt het
regelgevend kader voor “fintech” best vormgegeven? De vraag is hier niet enkel
of dereguleren een goed idee is, of niet. Het gaat ook over was de meest
optimale regelgeving is.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Voorts werd er ook een
akkoord bereikt over visserij. Dat is heel belangrijk nieuws, aangezien hiervan
maar liefst 2.300 jobs van </span><a href="https://www.knack.be/nieuws/belgie/er-is-geen-plan-b-betekent-brexit-het-einde-van-de-belgische-visser/article-longread-1646377.html">afhangen</a><span style="color: #222222;"> in ons land. Volgens schattingen zouden de Belgische
vissers tegen 2026 een </span><a href="https://order-order.com/2021/01/14/eu-state-analysis-eu-fishing-losses-are-uks-gains/">7%</a><span style="color: #222222;"> van hun markttoegang tot Britse wateren verliezen, wat
meevalt in vergelijking met Nederland (10%), Frankrijk (8%) of Ierland (15%).
Voor Britse vissers zijn er nu evenwel meer bureaucratische obstakels om hun
vis op het vasteland te verkopen. Dat is in sommige opzichten beter voor onze
vissers, maar slechter voor de Europese consument.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">“Last but not least”,
is het feit </span><a href="https://doorbraak.be/brexitakkoord-doorbraak/">dat
er</a><span style="color: #222222;"> een akkoord is ook goed nieuws voor het
Noord-Ierse vredesproces. Het </span><a href="https://doorbraak.be/na-de-scheiding/">scheidingsakkoord</a><span style="color: #222222;">, dat al begin 2020 in voege trad tussen de EU en het VK,
voorzag reeds dat er controles zouden komen tussen Groot-Brittannië en
Noord-Ierland, om zo een "harde grens" te vermijden op het Ierse
eiland. Begin december 2020 kwam men ook tot een akkoord over de uitvoering
daarvan, maar die zou heel moeilijk worden ingeval er opeens ook heel wat
douanetarieven zouden moeten worden geheven op producten die vanop het Britse
vasteland Noord-Ierland binnenkomen. Zelfs met de deal zijn er nu al heel wat
meer extra omslachtige douaneformaliteiten die sinds 1 januari gelden op die
goederenstroom binnen het VK, en </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55658645">vanaf 1 april</a><span style="color: #222222;"> dreigt dat met het wegvallen van overgangsmaatregelen
erger te worden. Die moeten met de nodige flexibiliteit wel </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55658645">kunnen</a><span style="color: #222222;"> worden opgelost. In elk geval werd het ergste scenario,
van een “no deal” met douanetarieven binnen het VK vermeden, wat zeker koren op
de molen van heethoofdige extremisten in Noord-Ierland was geweest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><b><span style="color: #222222;">Wat is er slecht aan
het akkoord?</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Douanetarieven werden
misschien vermeden, maar toch is het mogelijk dat die er komen, in twee
gevallen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Ten eerste worden
goederen enkel vrijgesteld van douanetarieven indien ze ook geproduceerd werden
in de EU of het VK. Nadat men Chinese goederen invoert in het VK, kan men die
niet zomaar als "Britse" goederen in de EU invoeren. De zogenaamde
"regels van oorsprong”, die nogal omslachtig zijn, bepalen wanneer
goederen dus al dan niet onderhevig zijn aan tarieven.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Ten tweede is het dus
mogelijk dat er alsnog douanetarieven komen op de onderlinge handel, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1349996035075158016">indien</a><span style="color: #222222;"> een arbitragerechtbank oordeelt dat nieuwe Britse
regelgeving een materiële impact heeft op handel of investeringen heeft, wat
dus een vrij verregaande vereiste is.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Zelfs zonder
douanetarieven komt er heel wat </span><a href="https://www.flandersinvestmentandtrade.com/export/internationaal/dossiers/brexit/belgische-douaneformaliteiten">douanebureaucratie</a><span style="color: #222222;"> bij, zoals bijvoorbeeld uitvoeraangiftes. Zeker voor
kleine ondernemingen die geen handel drijven buiten de EU is dat allemaal niet
evident. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Dan hebben we het nog
niet gehad over de nieuwe “niet-tarifaire” belemmeringen, waarbij de
markttoegang wordt beperkt in vergelijking met de situatie voordien. Zeker voor
de dienstensector is dat een grote bekommernis. De Britse City of London, het
grootste financieel centrum ter wereld, verliest hierdoor een stuk
marktaandeel, ook al doet ze voor 75% zaken met niet-EU partners en hebben ze
de financiële slagkracht om dochterondernemingen binnen de EU op te richten.
Voor kleinere dienstverleners is dat allemaal moeilijker, en het feit dat
professionele kwalificaties niet langer worden erkend is een jammere
zaak. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Niet alle handel binnen
de Europese Unie was reeds open gemaakt, maar sommige verworvenheden gaan nu
dus wel verloren. Dat is ook zo met “Erasmus”-uitwisseling met Britse
universiteiten, al is hier <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in theorie in
de toekomst zeker wel nog een akkoord over mogelijk. Internationale
uitwisseling van studenten bestond voor het Erasmus-programma ook al.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222;">Hoewel toerisme, met
een verblijf voor niet meer dan drie maanden, perfect mogelijk blijft, wordt
het voor Europeanen </span><a href="https://www.techuk.org/resource/faqs-on-the-movement-of-people-and-workers-after-the-transition-period.html">heel
wat omslachtiger</a><span style="color: #222222;"> om permanent in het VK te gaan
werken. Omgekeerd is dat trouwens ook zo, met name bijvoorbeeld voor Britse
muzikanten, die </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jan/14/brexit-touring-row-uk-proposals-not-fit-for-purpose-says-eu">voortaan</a><span style="color: #222222;"> in elk van de EU-lidstaten een werkvergunning moeten
gaan aanvragen, wat onze festivals zeker parten zal spelen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><b><span style="color: #222222;">De weg vooruit?</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Vrijhandel gaat over vertrouwen. In een ideale wereld drijven geïndustrialiseerde
landen handel met elkaar zonder beperkingen, waarbij ze elkaars regels en
standaarden eenvoudigweg erkennen en zelfs alle beperkingen op migratie
eenvoudigweg worden geschrapt, aangezien er toch geen gevaar is op
ongecontroleerde massamigratie tussen die landen.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In de echte wereld worden handelsstromen echter strikt gereguleerd, met
allerlei bureaucratie, voorwaarden en soms ook douanetarieven. Het beste wat het
VK en de EU dan ook konden bereiken is om die ellende zo veel mogelijk te beperken.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Het is nu al duidelijk dat er heel wat zaken nog niet zijn geregeld in
het akkoord, dus het is van het uiterste belang om dit zo snel mogelijk te
doen.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Vooreerst moeten zowel de EU als het VK bijzonder pragmatisch zijn bij de
controle van de nieuwe verplichtingen, om ondernemingen de tijd te geven om
zich aan te passen.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Fundamenteel moet er ook heel wat meer wederzijdse erkenning van
standaarden komen. Niet enkel omdat het VK eenvoudigweg nog steeds zowat alle
Europese regelgeving in voege heeft, maar ook omdat het om een land gaat dat we
wel kunnen vertrouwen.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Een Europese ambtenaar maakt aan de Financial Times de visie bij sommige
eurocraten duidelijk. Hij </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1347247762790899715?s=03"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">stelt</span></a><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">: "Men kan niet verwachten dat het VK de
"food import hub" van de EU blijft. Dat kan niet blijven duren."
Dit is een uiting van het idee dat het opleggen van extra belemmeringen voor
handel tussen VK en EU de eigen industrie zal bevoordelen.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Het is natuurlijk bijzonder kortzichtig om dat te denken. Het zal wel zo
zijn dat men op die manier hier en daar wel eens een voordeel kan halen en er er
zullen wel bedrijven zijn die zich in de EU vestigen als gevolg van de nieuwe
EU-belemmeringen voor handel tussen VK en EU. Uiteindelijk zal zoiets echter meer
kapot maken dan het goed zal doen. Als onze ondernemingen niet makkelijk de
Britse markt kunnen bedienen, schaadt dat hen in hun globale groeistrategie.
Bovendien wordt Europa minder aantrekkelijk voor investeerders als er grote
belemmeringen komen tussen de Britse markt en die van de Europe Unie.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Enkele suggesties om de nieuwe "muur van bureaucratie" voor
handel tussen VK en EU, zoals de Financial Times het noemt, wat te verzachten? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Erken professionele kwalificaties, regel tijdelijk verkeer van
dienstverleners, kom wederzijdse erkenning van conformiteitsattesten overeen,
als ook van data-regulering en wat mij betreft zoveel mogelijk andere
regulering eveneens. Geef prioriteit aan de specifieke sectoren die door het
handelsakkoord over het hoofd werden gezien. Zo worden alvast de grootste
nieuwe pijnpunten aangepakt. </span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bovendien is ook een oplossing voor het nieuwe BTW-regime om handel te
drijven met het VK nodig. Op dit moment, dienen Britse bedrijven in
verschillende EU-lidstaten een BTW-registratie gaan doen, wat omslachtig is en
heel wat Britse webshops er toe deed besluiten niet langer klanten in de EU te
bedienen. BTW is al </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/968148713347706882"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">bijzonder complex</span></a><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> zonder brexit, maar een
oplossing kan er eventueel in bestaan dat de Britse regering een jaarlijkse
vergoeding betaalt aan de EU in ruil voor het wegvallen van BTW-formaliteiten
voor Britse ondernemingen, met uiteraard een gelijkaardige regelgeving voor EU-ondernemingen
die in het VK verkopen.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Het was altijd al onvermijdelijk dat Brexit tot meer handelsbeperkingen
zou leiden. In het ideale scenario was het VK lid van de EU gebleven en had de
EU oor gehad voor de Britse verzuchting om de EU te heroriënteren naar haar
kernopdracht: het wegwerken van handelsbelemmeringen. Ironisch genoeg zorgt
Brexit ervoor dat nu duidelijker dan ooit wordt hoe belangrijk het vrijhandelskader
is dat de EU biedt. Dat kader komt in gevaar wanneer de EU zich inlaat met
"Eurofederalistische" experimenten om steeds meer macht te verwerven,
aangezien het gebrek aan democratische legitimiteit voor een
"blowback", zoals het Brexit-referendum, kan zorgen.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Er is een intense economische en historische verwevenheid tussen de
Britse eilanden en het vasteland. Reeds in 1496 kwamen Londen en de
handelsmogendheden op het Europese vasteland, met Bourgondische Nederlanden op
kop, een voor die tijd verregaand handelsakkoord overeen, het zogenaamd "<a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1349053823407501314">Intercursus
Magnus</a>". Ook al zorgt het hedendaagse handelsakkoord EU-UK
TCA voor een inperking van de handel, vormt het toch een goede basis om terug
zo dicht mogelijk aan te knopen bij de handelstoegang die er voor 1 januari
was, maar dan met heel wat meer regelgevende competitie, in het belang van de
beide kanten van het Kanaal.</span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white;"><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-50780944347360312902021-01-07T14:30:00.001+01:002021-02-11T14:31:40.880+01:00Een kritische analyse van het Europese vaccin-beleid<p><i>Oorspronkelijk gepubliceerd op <a href="https://businessam.be/een-kritische-analyse-van-het-europese-vaccin-beleid/">BusinessAM</a></i></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: bolder;">In de Europese Unie is gezondheidsbeleid een nationale bevoegdheid. Niettemin gebeurt de goedkeuring van coronavaccins door de <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/public-health/coronavirus-vaccines-strategy_nl#eu-vaccinstrategie" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Europese Commissie</a> en werd ook de verantwoordelijkheid om te onderhandelen met farmabedrijven over de aankoop ervan toevertrouwd aan het Europese niveau. Bij beide zaken lijkt het te zijn mis gegaan.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: bolder;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Dat Israël, de Verenigde Staten, het Verenigd Koninkrijk en andere landen <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..2021-01-05&region=World" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">fors voorop</a> lopen op EU-landen in de race om het vaccin toe te dienen kan natuurlijk niet zo maar aan de Europese Unie worden toegeschreven. De uitrol van het vaccin is immers een nationale – en soms zelfs regionale of lokale – bevoegdheid, terwijl niemand ook veel kan doen aan productievertraging bij de fabrikanten. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Hoe vroeger de goedkeuring, hoe vroeger men kan beginnen vaccineren</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Toch hangt veel af van de <span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;">goedkeuring</span> van het vaccin. Hoe vroeger de goedkeuring, hoe vroeger men kan beginnen vaccineren. Het Verenigd Koninkrijk, dat in 2020 nog steeds de EU-regels diende te volgen, maakte gebruik van een <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-brexit-lead-to-the-uk-s-vaccine-success-" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">uitzonderingsprocedure</a> om het Pfizer-vaccin goed te keuren enkele weken voor de EU dat deed, en kon dan ook een stuk eerder beginnen met de uitrol. Volgens de Duits-Turkse uitvinder van het vaccin, Ugur Sahin, had de Europese vertraging <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1338834436155174913" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">niets</a> met wetenschappelijke redenen te maken, maar enkel met procedurele, die dan weer volgens Belgische beleidsmakers te <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1338834436155174913" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">verkiezen</a> zouden zijn. Premier Alexander De Croo <a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/12/20/de-croo-7d/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">beweerde</a> zelf: “In het VK hebben ze hun bevolking als proefkonijnen genomen.”</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Nog belangrijker is wellicht de goedkeuring van het AstraZeneca-vaccin. <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1344039125872209935" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Volgens</a> Duits parlementslid Karl Lauterbach, de woordvoerder voor gezondheidsbeleid van de Duitse regeringspartij SPD, ‘zal het van het AstraZeneca-vaccin afhangen of Duitsland het al dan niet goed zal doen of niet’, wat betreft de doelstelling om tegen het einde van de zomer 60 procent van de bevolking te vaccineren.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Het Verenigd Koninkrijk <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1344039125872209935" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">keurde</a> dit vaccin al goed en begon op 4 januari zelfs al met de inenting ervan. Het Europees Geneesmiddelenagentschap zal het daarentegen pas <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1344039125872209935" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">ten vroegste</a> in februari goedkeuren. Dat heeft ook wel te maken met het feit dat <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/eu-affairs/147413/coronavirus-ema-unlikely-to-recommend-astrazeneca-vaccine-in-january-oxford-european-medicines-agency-noel-wathion-clinical-trials-conditional-marketing-authorisation-pfizer-biontech-commission/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">AstraZeneca nog geen</a> officiële aanvraag ter goedkeuring bij de EU heeft gedaan, maar het doet allemaal toch veel vragen rijzen. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">België voorziet in de planning dat het niet voor maart met dit vaccin zal kunnen beginnen inenten, en wellicht zal het in Duitsland en de rest van de EU niet veel vroeger zijn. Dat kan wel eens een bijzonder groot verschil maken. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Het Verenigd Koninkrijk keurde zoals gezegd het Pfizer-vaccin begin december goed, binnen de krijtlijnen van EU-regelgeving, en het AstraZeneca-vaccin begin januari. Wat als de Europese Unie dezelfde snelheid had gevolgd – of iets trager dan – wat betreft het AstraZeneca-vaccin?</p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Wat als er een derde golf komt?</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Gedurende de hele maand december en januari had men dit vaccin dan al kunnen toedienen aan de meest kwetsbaren en het zorgpersoneel. Laat ons hopen dat er uiteindelijk geen derde golf komt, maar volgens professor microbiologie en immunologie Hans-Willem Snoeck (Columbia University) is die <a href="https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20210105_93606216" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">bijzonder onwaarschijnlijk</a>. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">De Britse variant van het Covid-virus verspreidt zich heel wat sneller, waardoor die variant ook heel wat meer slachtoffers kan maken, zelfs indien die <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/23/health/coronavirus-uk-variant.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">niet dodelijker</a> zou zijn dan eerdere varianten. Op dit moment is er al een enorme stijging in Ierland, de dichtste buur van het VK. In Ierland is <a href="https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1346816002076643329" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">sinds</a> Kerstavond het aantal personen dat met Covid op intensieve zorgen ligt vervierdubbeld, op minder dan twee weken dus.</p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">België heeft hoogste ‘oversterfte’ in westerse wereld</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">België pakte Covid al bijzonder slecht aan in 2020, dus een nieuw drama bij een derde golf moet men echt proberen te vermijden. Als men naar de ‘oversterfte’ kijkt – wat een vergelijking is van het aantal sterfgevallen in 2020 met voorgaande jaren, wat dus het probleem wegwerkt dat niet alle landen Covid-sterftes op dezelfde manier aangeven – ziet men dat er in de westerse wereld geen enkel land is met een dergelijke hoge oversterfte. Die bedroeg – volgens cijfers van de Financial Times – zo maar even <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1346806497364373505" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">26% voor België</a> in 2020, heel wat meer dan onze buurlanden (Nederland en Frankrijk: +11%, Duitsland: +4%, VK: +18%) en zelfs meer dan Spanje (+24%) en Italië (+15%). Ook het ‘Amerika van Trump’ deed het minder slecht, met +18%. Men moet al naar Istanboel gaan (+28%) om gelijkaardige dramatische cijfers te zien, al is het nog niet zo erg als in Mexico (+53%) of Peru (+89%) . Ondertussen kenden Denemarken en Zuid-Korea helemaal geen oversterfte, terwijl het zogenaamd ‘lockdownvrije’ Zweden met 12% het ook niet goed deed. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">De graad van lockdownbeperkingen lijkt trouwens niet direct een sterke factor – in tegenstelling tot zaken zoals <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/finland-and-norway-avoid-covid-19-lockdowns-but-keep-the-virus-at-bay-11605704407" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">grenscontroles</a> en <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/five-measures-that-could-prevent-future-lockdowns" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">medische</a> capaciteit, wat dan gaat over performant ‘test and trace’-beleid alsook beschikbaarheid van medisch materiaal. Spanje deed het nog slechter dan ons land tijdens de eerste golf, maar tijdens de tweede golf afgelopen herfst was de oversterfte binnen het Westen <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1342840962805100553" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">nergens hoger</a> dan in België. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Een snellere goedkeuring van het vaccin had dus op zijn minst de mogelijkheid geboden aan België om op dezelfde <a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1346860327737171970" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">doortastende</a> manier als Israël te werk te gaan bij de uitrol van het vaccin. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Prioriteit voor de bewoners van de woonzorgcentra, ‘een puur politieke beslissing’?</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Echter, ‘het is wat het is’, en in ons land is de uitrol nu wel al begonnen. Opnieuw volgens immunoloog Hans-Willem Snoeck is het vrij trage tempo <a href="https://www.hln.be/binnenland/interview-immunoloog-hans-willem-snoeck-prima-voor-jos-96-dat-hij-vaccin-kreeg-maar-niet-de-juiste-keuze~a8cf1f9d/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialsharing_web" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">te wijten</a> aan het feit dat ‘er in die klinische studies van Pfizer en Moderna onvoldoende mensen van [zeer hoge] leeftijd zaten. We weten niet hoe veilig en effectief het vaccin is bij die zeer oude populatie. De oplossing? We gaan er 700 vaccineren en dan kijken.’ Hij stelt bovendien dat prioriteit voor de bewoners van de woonzorgcentra (‘WZC’s’) ‘een puur politieke beslissing’ is en ‘een reactie op een nogal vernietigend rapport van het WHO over ons beleid in de WZC’s’.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Hij wil integendeel voorrang voor het zorgpersoneel, en stelt: ‘Vrijwel alle andere landen kiezen voor het beschermen van de ‘eerstelijn’. Ook wij moeten dat doen. Want de gezondheidszorg moet overeind blijven. En we hebben die mensen nog hard nodig om te vaccineren. (…) Waren we met Kerstmis begonnen, we waren al bijna klaar.’ Het moet gezegd dat sommige andere wetenschappers, zoals bijvoorbeeld Marc Noppen, de ceo van UZ Brussel, geen voorstander zijn van prioriteit voor het zorgpersoneel. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Verdedigers van het EU-beleid <a href="https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1346586011434946560" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">stellen</a> dat de relatief tragere vaccinatie in Europa door problemen bij <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/the-vaccination-blame-game-is-it-all-the-eus-fault/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">productie</a> zit, en dat de uitrol <a href="https://www.hln.be/buitenland/te-weinig-naalden-niet-genoeg-personeel-en-bekende-mensen-die-voorsteken-met-deze-problemen-hebben-europese-landen-af-te-rekenen-bij-vaccineren~aa77c2f9/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">nationaal</a> ook veel te wensen overlaat. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Vooreerst maken nationale <a href="https://twitter.com/Isoldevde/status/1346376804509110278" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">beleidsfouten</a> uiteraard fouten op EU-niveau niet goed. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Maar bovendien het volgende: indien Hans-Willem Snoeck het bij het rechte eind heeft en het <a href="https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20210105_93606216" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">cruciaal</a> is om eerst het zorgpersoneel in te enten, betekent dit dat het tijdstip van de start van de vaccinatiecampagne wel degelijk extreem belangrijk is, ook al beschikt men maar – als gevolg van productiebeperkingen – over een fractie van het aantal vaccins die nodig zijn. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">‘Europese Commissie heeft de aankoop van vaccins te bureaucratisch gepland’</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Naast de goedkeuring van vaccins was ook de onderhandeling over de <span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;">aankoop</span> ervan een verantwoordelijkheid van het EU-niveau.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Hiervoor kwam de EU reeds zwaar onder vuur, met name in Duitsland. De leider van de Beierse Minister-President, Markus Söder, <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1345713428254642177" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">viel de EU Commissie frontaal aan:</a> ‘de Europese Commissie heeft de aankoop van vaccins te bureaucratisch gepland en te lang gedebatteerd over de prijs. Het valt moeilijk uit te leggen dat een in Duitsland ontwikkeld vaccin elders sneller ingezet kan worden’. Ook Duitse media zoals <a href="https://twitter.com/stefanauer_hku/status/1338737084924739585" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Bild</a> en <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1341426100099026947" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Der</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1346180934199078915" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Spiegel</a> kwamen scherp uit de hoek.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Het zal wel zo zijn dat een deel van de Duitse kritiek op de Europese Commissie is ingegeven door de strijd binnen de regerende CDU om de opvolging van Angela Merkel, waarbij de Minister van Volksgezondheid, Jens Spahn, één van de <a href="https://fd.nl/economie-politiek/1368849/niet-angela-merkel-maar-jens-spahn-is-geliefdste-duitse-politicus" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">kanshebbers</a> is. Ook in de Zweedse en <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1341418740399943681" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Deense</a> pers vielen er echter heel wat kritische geluiden te horen over de Europese aanpak. De voormalige Zweedse sociaal-democratische Minister Leif Pagrotsky, <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1343958641775431688/photo/3" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">stelde</a> in een opiniestuk zelfs voluit dat voor de Britten ‘de uittrede uit de EU levens redt’. Juridisch is dat niet juist, omdat ook andere EU-landen de uitzonderingsprocedure hadden kunnen volgen, maar men kan wel <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1343960691615686656" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">beargumenteren</a> dat zonder brexit de Britten die politieke optie minder snel hadden gekozen.</p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Falen kost mensenlevens én geld</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Het Duitse weekblad Der Spiegel vindt alvast dat de Europese Unie gefaald heeft in haar missie, en <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/corona-impfungen-das-fatale-zoegern-der-eu-a-bdfceb9a-12b4-47ab-a3fb-4a02a3db0bf9-amp?sara_ecid=soci_upd_wbMbjhOSvViISjc8RPU89NcCvtlFcJ&__twitter_impression=true" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">schrijft dat</a> het gaat om ‘een falen, dat nu in de winter, op het hoogtepunt van de pandemie, niet enkel vele mensenlevens zal kosten, maar ook zeer veel geld. Dit terwijl de EU met haar gepoker net geld wilde besparen’. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Het fundamentele probleem bij de Europese aanpak is dat de bestelling van het vaccin veel te laat gebeurde. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">De Europese Unie <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1346436856343367680" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">bestelde</a> immers pas op 11 november 200 miljoen dosissen van het Pfizer-vaccin, terwijl de Verenigde Staten dat reeds op 22 juli deden. Daarbij <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/147172/vaccines-eu-turned-down-offer-of-500-million-extra-doses/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">zou</a> de EU bovendien een aanbod hebben afgeslaan om nog eens 500 miljoen extra dosissen aan te kopen. Integendeel kocht het op 17 november 400 miljoen dosissen van CureVac, een vaccin dat echter nog niet in het ‘Phase3 trial’ stadium zat. Men kan zeggen dat het achteraf makkelijk praten is, maar in juli reeds <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-biotech-sees-its-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-for-approval-by-december-11594373400?st=u9rrjos6g9h0i2p&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">berichtte</a> de Wall Street Journal dat het Pfizer vaccin klaar voor goedkeuring zou zijn tegen december, waarbij toen ook al heel wat data beschikbaar waren, maar desondanks <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1346436861686853633" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">wachtte</a> het Europees Geneesmiddelenagentschap tot <a href="https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-starts-second-rolling-review-covid-19-vaccine" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">6 oktober</a> om die data te beginnen evalueren. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Late bestelling heeft grote gevolgen</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">De late bestelling heeft grote gevolgen, want <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1346436864031522816" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">wie eerder bestelt</a>, krijgt ook eerder levering. In het geval van Pfizer, zou de levering pas laat dit jaar, als alles goed gaat, <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1346436864031522816" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">afgerond</a> zijn.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">De vraag is dus niet of EU-lidstaten uiteindelijk <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3a37c3f5-20fc-4d1f-8dd4-2fd966c27542" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">genoeg</a> vaccins zullen hebben, maar of ze er genoeg zullen hebben om tegen het einde van de zomer op zijn minst de meest kwetsbaren te hebben gevaccineerd, om te vermijden dat het zorgsysteem wordt overbelast, wat net de fundamentele reden is voor alle Covid-maatregelen.</p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Opnieuw <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1345091003955470342" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">volgens</a> de Duits-Turkse uitvinder van het Pfizer vaccin, Ugur Sahin, ‘bestond blijkbaar de indruk: we hebben genoeg. Het zal niet zo slecht gaan. We hebben dit onder controle. Ik was daarover verbaasd’. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Oorspronkelijk had de Duitse Minister van Volksgezondheid, Jens Spahn, een bilateraal initiatief genomen, los van de Europese Commissie, samen met zijn collega’s uit Nederland, Frankrijk en Italië. Merkel <a href="https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1346094039989428225" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">dwong</a> hem in juni om hiermee te stoppen en de verantwoordelijkheid aan de Europese Commissie te laten. </p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Ondertussen lijkt Duitsland toch alweer van het pad van de ‘Europese solidariteit’ afgestapt en vroeg het aan Pfizer/BioNTech eenmalige <a href="https://twitter.com/Immanuel_Krant/status/1346715711163527168" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">voorafname</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1341044985920180225" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">van</a> voorziene levering, wat het evenwicht verstoorde en voor ongenoegen bij de Europese Commissie zorgde. </p><h2 style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 1.825rem; line-height: 1.3125; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px;">Vermijden dat steun voor Europa afbrokkelt</h2><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Tot besluit: zowel op vlak van de goedkeuring van vaccins, cruciaal om zo snel mogelijk te kunnen beginnen vaccineren, als op vlak van de aankoop ervan kan men stevige vragen stellen bij de Europese aanpak – wat nationaal falen uiteraard niet goedpraat. Laten we hopen dat de fabrikanten goed kunnen volgen, want als er vaccintekorten ontstaan die grootschalige vaccinatie vertragen, zal de aandacht snel weer gaan naar de aankooppolitiek van de Europese Commissie. Zeker voor kleine, open economieën, zoals de onze, is het ook belangrijk dat de steun voor ‘Europa’ in Duitsland niet afbrokkelt, als gevolg van dit soort experimenten waarbij de Europese Commissie grote verantwoordelijkheid kreeg over gezondheidsbeleid.</p><p><span style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: bolder;"></span></p><p style="background-color: #f7eae3; box-sizing: border-box; color: #11152d; font-family: "Proxima Nova", sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px;">Zonder ophouden <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-fires-first-shots-in-battle-for-more-health-power/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; line-height: 1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">vragen</a> Europese ambtenaren meer macht op vlak van gezondheidsbeleid, maar de ervaring met Covid leert dat we daar best toch heel voorzichtig mee omgaan. Het is uiteraard een goed idee om zaken te coördineren op Europees niveau, en misschien wel zo veel als mogelijk in crisissituaties zoals deze, maar eigen beslissingsmacht over zoiets cruciaals als gezondheidsbeleid blijft toch beter op beleidsniveaus dicht bij de burger, waar politici forse druk voelen om te handelen. Dat is hoegenaamd niet altijd het geval voor het Europees niveau. </p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-58495810695140980262020-12-27T14:26:00.001+01:002021-02-11T14:27:38.670+01:00Tijd om het roer te wenden en de kernuitstap terug te draaien<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><i>Oorspronkelijk gepubliceerd op de financiële blog <a href="http://consul-fund.be/tijd-om-het-roer-te-wenden-en-de-kernuitstap-terug-te-draaien/">Consulfund</a></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Eén van de meest opzienbare
beslissingen van de nieuwe federale regering is dat ze "resoluut" </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://newsroom.roularta.be/static/30092020/regeerakkoord.pdf?_ga=2.218956895.792354171.1601464137-1456588048.1595851349"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">kiest</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">
"voor de herbevestiging van de ‘kernuitstap’ tegen 2025. Om ervoor te
zorgen dat het licht niet uit gaat, zouden die afbetaalde, niet-CO2-uitstotende
kerncentrales daarbij worden vervangen door zwaar gesubsidieerde
CO2-uitstotende gascentrales.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Het is echter allesbehalve
de vraag of het wel realistisch is om zo snel die gascentrales “up and running”
te hebben. België staat nu eenmaal niet gekend om snelheid in die zaken,
allereerst vanwege het </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/09/29/bouw-nieuwe-gevangenis-van-dendermonde-eindelijk-gestart/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">bijzonder trage</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> vergunningsproces. Denken we maar aan de </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lange_Wapperbrug"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">vervolmaking</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> van de Antwerpse ring of de nieuwe gevangenissen in Dendermonde of
Haren. Bovendien moet de Europese Commissie zich nog uitspreken over de
wettelijkheid van het subsidiemechanisme.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Om die reden werd tegelijk
in het regeerakkoord voorzien dat de kernuitstap – die bij wet verplicht werd
door de paars-groene regering Verhofstadt, bijna 20 jaar geleden – </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://doorbraak.be/vijf-redenen-om-tegen-vivaldi-te-zijn/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">enkel</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
wordt uitgevoerd op voorwaarde dat de ‘de bevoorradingszekerheid en de impact
op de elektriciteitsprijzen’ niet in gevaar komen. Indien dat zo zou blijken te
zijn, dan zouden alsnog twee van de zeven Belgische kerncentrales langer open worden
gehouden. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">De federale regering kwam
daarbij ook overeen om de uiteindelijke beslissing pas einde 2021 te maken. Dat
Engie Electrabel, de eigenaar en uitbater van de Belgische kerncentrales, al
begin dit jaar waarschuwde dat het bedrijf een antwoord wil, en in oktober nog
waarschuwde dat een beslissing in 2021 “te laat” </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie/federaal/engie-beslissing-volgend-jaar-te-laat-voor-kerncentrales/10255475.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">komt</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">,
werd daarbij volkomen genegeerd. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">De opening in het regeerakkoord
</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-energie/getalm-met-kernuitstap-doet-investeerder-afhaken/10254843.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">lijkt</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
verantwoordelijk voor het afhaken van één van de investeerders in mogelijke
nieuwe gascentrales, André Jurres. Hij stelt: “als er straks twee kerncentrales
openblijven, heeft het project geen zin meer. (...) De elektriciteitsprijs op
de stroombeurs is nu eigenlijk al te laag om investeringen aantrekkelijk te
maken. Als straks ook 2.000 megawatt van kerncentrales blijft komen, wordt dat
probleem nog groter. Ik heb de berekeningen laten maken en je krijgt dan een
nog grotere prijsmisvorming. Het wordt dan voor een nieuwkomer zeer moeilijk om
een gascentrale rendabel te krijgen.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Dit lijkt te contrasteren
met de stelling van de federale regering dat er sowieso extra gascentrales
nodig zouden zijn, ook als er nog kerncentrales open blijven. Onder meer
energieregulator Creg </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20200123_04818877"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">betwist</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
dit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Jurres </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-energie/getalm-met-kernuitstap-doet-investeerder-afhaken/10254843.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">legt echter uit</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">: ‘Door niet te beslissen is de beslissing eigenlijk
al genomen. (...) In feite weet je al dat ze twee kerncentrales zullen openhouden.
Maar als daar pas eind volgend jaar echt duidelijkheid over komt, zullen het
enkel de gevestigde partijen met een grote marktpositie zijn die nog in staat
zijn een gascentrale te bouwen.”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Laat nu net Engie Electrabel
één van die “gevestigde partijen” zijn. Het bedrijf is </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-energie/getalm-met-kernuitstap-doet-investeerder-afhaken/10254843.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">van plan</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
om in geval van een kernuitstap 400 miljoen euro te investeren in een nieuwe
gascentrale in Vilvoorde en eventueel ook in Amercoeur bij Luik.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Engie Electrabel is dus
voorbereid op alle scenarios: dat van een verlenging van de levensduur van
enkele kerncentrales en dat van een complete sluiting. Toch liet het bedrijf
onlangs </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/dossier/weekboekpolitiek/realitycheck-voor-vivaldi/10266771.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">weten</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
dat het de investeringen die nodig zijn om de jongste twee kerncentrales langer
open te houden, </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/dossier/weekboekpolitiek/realitycheck-voor-vivaldi/10266771.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">stopt</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">,
wat tot politieke ophef leidde, met protest vanuit de liberale achterban en een
aanbod door N-VA voorzitter Bart De Wever van een </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie/federaal/de-wever-biedt-wisselmeerderheid-aan-om-kernuitstap-terug-te-draaien/10266907.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">wisselmeerderheid</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> om de wet op de kernuitstap aan te passen, zonder dat
hij daarvoor een tegenprestatie in ruil wil.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Volgens De Tijd </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/dossier/weekboekpolitiek/realitycheck-voor-vivaldi/10266771.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">wil</span></a></span><span style="background: #FEF7EA; color: #505050; font-family: "Georgia","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Engie
Electrabel “zijn onderhandelingspositie versterken voor het geval de
regering-De Croo toch nog vraagt om de kerncentrales langer open te houden. Er
zal dan geen sprake meer zijn van het afromen van een nucleaire rente, maar de
Belgische staat dreigt Engie Electrabel dan eerder geld te moeten toesteken om
de reactoren langer te laten draaien. Daardoor zou de factuur nog hoger
oplopen.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">De krant </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.tijd.be/dossier/weekboekpolitiek/realitycheck-voor-vivaldi/10266771.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">onthult</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
daarbij dat de beslissing in de regeringsonderhandelingen is gebeurd zonder
grondige analyse, wat Energie-Minister Tinne Van der Straeten ook moge beweren:
“Er zijn geen berekeningen die aantonen dat het scenario van de kernuitstap een
haalbare kaart is. (...) Er was geen tijd voor ernstig rekenwerk, wat wel het
geval was toen de regering-Michel besloot om Doel 1 en 2 langer open te
houden.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Wel zijn er studies van
Elia, de hoogspanningsnetbeheerder, die wijzen op de mogelijkheid om met
investeringen in de interconnectie met Frankrijk en Duitsland meer
elektriciteit uit die landen te importeren. Opnieuw extra kosten dus, waarbij
dan ook meer Franse kernenergie en Duitse bruinkool zou worden geïmporteerd.
Dan negeren we nog de recente </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1362163/france-electricity-shortage-blackout-RTE"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">waarschuwingen</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> van de Franse regering dat er deze winter in
Frankrijk wel eens “blackouts” kunnen voorkomen en dat Duitsland </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/european-commission-approves-german-hard-coal-exit-tender/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">van plan</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
is alle steenkool- en bruinkoolcentrales te sluiten, om nog maar te zwijgen
over de ervaring van afgelopen lente, waarbij de buurlanden de export van levensreddend
medisch materiaal aan banden legden. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">In de eerste plaats is het
natuurlijk bizar dat de groenen, van wie het eerste geloofspunt is dat
CO2-uitstoot het klimaat doet opwarmen, zich zo vijandig opstellen ten opzichte
van kernenergie, wat de </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1327649537624854528"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">minst gesubsidieerde</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> energievorm is, en trouwens ook bij de </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/ThomasVanRiet2/status/1332069518550700037"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">meest</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
</span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/mar/21/pro-nuclear-japan-fukushima"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">veilige</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">.
De </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/climate-crisis-nuclear-power-co2-carbon-fukushima-environment-a9105961.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">nadelige gevolgen</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> voor het milieu van zogenaamde “hernieuwbare”
energiebronnen zoals wind- en zonne-energie zijn onderhand ook al </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/09/09/as-renewables-falter-environmentalists-stand-up-for-nuclear/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">duidelijk</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">, om nog maar te </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://sciencing.com/negative-effects-biomass-19624.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">zwijgen</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
van de </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/emissions-trading-scheme/news/scientists-call-on-eu-to-correct-biomass-carbon-accounting-rules/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">zogenaamd</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> “hernieuwbare” energiebron biomassa.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">De federatie van grote
stroomverbruikende ondernemingen, Febeliec, verzet zich fel tegen een
kernuitstap, wat op zich al een teken aan de wand is hoe zeker we kunnen zijn
van onze energievoorziening bij dit groene experiment om zo maar even </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">40% van de Belgische electriciteitsopwekking</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> op zeer korte termijn te gaan afsluiten.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">Dan is er nog het
dramatische verlies aan wetenschappelijke nucleaire expertise – België is op
dit vlak wereldvermaard – en last but nog least zijn er in ons land </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.nucleairforum.be/thema/de-belgische-kerncentrales/ruim-10-000-jobs-in-belgie"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">maar liefst 20.000 jobs</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> gelinkt aan nucleaire technologie. Dat zijn </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/12/02/kerncentrales-sluiten-brengt-7-000-jobs-in-gevaar/"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">hoofdzakelijk</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> private, niet-gesubsidieerde jobs. Niet dat we er daar een overschot van
hebben in dit land waar het overheidsbeslag naar </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20201122_96223235?"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">60 procent</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;"> van het BBP gaat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">De gevolgen van een
kernuitstap zijn pas in 2025 ten vroegste zichtbaar, zal de huidige regering
die in 2024 de kiezer in de ogen moet kijken, misschien niet aanzetten tot
verantwoordelijkheidszin. Een sobere blik op de feiten zou echter moeten
besluiten dat alle verantwoordelijke krachten in de regering het roer moeten
wenden. Met elke dag talmen, wordt de onderhandelspositie van Engie Electrabel
sterker. Zachte heelmeesters maken stinkende wonden. De verantwoordelijke
partners in de federale coalitie moeten luisteren naar de </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://twitter.com/NucleairForum/status/1329709960679337986"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">steun</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
in de samenleving –succesvolle </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://maartenboudry.be/2020/11/schrap-de-wet-op-de-kernuitstap-geef-kernenergie-opnieuw-een-toekomst-in-belgie.html"><span lang="NL-BE" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">petities</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: NL-BE;">
incluis - voor het openhouden van de kerncentrales. Ze moeten de wisselmeerderheid
van N-VA aanvaarden en de wet op de kernuitstap zo snel mogelijk aanpassen. Nog
eens zien of de groenen de regering dan durven te laten vallen. <o:p></o:p></span></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-75706590771916646612020-12-16T15:52:00.001+01:002021-01-05T15:53:43.835+01:00Italy's return to statism spells trouble for the eurozone<p><i>Originally published by<a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/150392"> EUObserver</a></i></p><p><span style="color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em;">Last week, European leaders clinched a deal ending weeks of deadlock over Hungarian and Polish opposition to "rule of law" conditionality linked to EU spending. As a result, also the EU's €750bn "recovery fund" will be unlocked.</span></p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Italy is projected to be the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-economy-eu-analysis-idUSKBN2672DX" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">biggest recipient of the fund</a>. It would receive <a href="https://www.corriere.it/economia/tasse/20_dicembre_07/pnrrbozzapercdm7dic2020-7908fa02-3898-11eb-a3d9-f53ec54e3a0b.shtml" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">about €200bn</a>, 60 percent of it in cheap loans.</p><div style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There are profound questions, however, about whether the windfall of cash will truly help Italy recover or whether it will cause more problems than it solves, for Rome and the rest of the eurozone.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Italy's Central Bank has warned that "the insufficient rates of productivity we have accumulated can't be fixed by monetary policy or higher spending", pointing to the need for genuine reforms to address the stifling bureaucracy and other issues that have dinted Italy's competitiveness.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Draft plans <a href="https://www.corriere.it/economia/tasse/20_dicembre_07/pnrrbozzapercdm7dic2020-7908fa02-3898-11eb-a3d9-f53ec54e3a0b.shtml" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">obtained by Italian daily Corriere</a> suggest a rather ideological approach from the leftwing government coalition. As outlined in a document, €74.3bn is earmarked for the "green revolution and ecological transition" and €17.1bn for "gender equality", while hospitals would only receive €9bn, out of the fund originally meant to support countries hit heavily by the health care crisis.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Of course, the main idea of the "recovery fund" is to cope with the economic effects resulting from Covid. In any case, the intended approach seems very much to be one of top-down economic planning.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This accelerates a worrying trend of growing state control over the Italian economy.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Italy, whose inflation-adjusted GDP is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-economy-eu-analysis-idUSKBN2672DX" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">shrinking to 1998 levels</a>, was of course never a free-market champion, but the country nevertheless embarked on some considerable privatisation during the 1990s, when former ECB president Mario Draghi was at the helm of the Italian treasury.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In recent years, however, large-scale free market "reform fatigue" has surfaced in the country. Almost <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f05bbc44-cd69-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">30 years of running primary budget surpluses</a> have proven insufficient to generate growth that would compensate for the massive debt burden stemming from continuous fiscal deficits in the 1970s and 1980s.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In recent years, Rome has changed course and is increasingly pursuing a more statist course.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Matteo Renzi was probably the last Italian leader who made some reform to the country's sclerotic labour market regulations. In 2016, soon after his resignation as prime minister, the Italian government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/22/italy-bail-out-monte-dei-paschi-di-siena-rescue-matteo-renzi" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">awarded a bailout to Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), the world's oldest bank</a>.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The costly rescue was an early indication of a sharp statist turn, which the "populist" coalition of League and the Five Star Movement also pursued, with increased public spending.</p><h2 style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.8em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Coalition bailouts</h2><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The current coalition meanwhile, composed of the centre-left Democratic Party and again Five Star Movement, is going full steam ahead with more government intervention into the economy.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There is the €3bn bailout for the chronically unprofitable airline carrier Alitalia.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Also, there's the investment by Italian state lender Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) into the <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/euronext-submits-offer-to-buy-borsa-italiana-2020-09-14" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">acquisition of Borsa Italiana from LSE Group</a> and – coming up - into the operation of Italy's highways, which currently are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-motorway-atlantia-cdp/cdp-led-group-sticks-with-autostrade-price-tag-as-it-works-on-deal-idINKBN27C2X2" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">privately operated by the Benetton family.</a></p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Another highly-troubling example is the Italian government's active intervention in the Italian telecom sector, in a bid to create a single national broadband champion.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To that end, the government has been pushing utility group Enel, a listed company, to sell its 50 percent stake in fast broadband operator OpenFiber, again to state lender CDP, which already owns the other 50 percent of the telecom firm. Enel, which is partly state-owned itself, <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/openfiber-ma-enel/enel-close-to-selling-open-fiber-stake-to-macquarie-cdp-sources-idUSL8N2HW4XB" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">seems close to folding</a> under the pressure.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This would allow the government's plan to merge one-time monopolist TIM's landline grid with that of its OpenFiber rival to be completed.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As a result, a competitor, Tiscali, has already <a href="https://telecoms.com/507653/eu-backs-italys-fibercop-project/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ceased investment in its own high-speed infrastructure</a>, something which does not bode well for Italian consumers.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This all touches upon the heart of the digital economy, which is where growth and innovation are supposed to happen. The Italian government aims to devote €48.7bn from its recovery fund cash to "digitalisation and innovation", but what is the use, when poor service may no longer be penalised due to lack of competition?</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The <a href="https://telecoms.com/507653/eu-backs-italys-fibercop-project/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">European Commission has cleared</a> the first part of the operation, arguing that it "cannot be considered a concentration under EU legislation and therefore does not need to be notified under the European Merger Regulation".</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">However, the question is also whether there is unfair state aid, given the Italian state's outsized role in an activity supposedly reserved for the private sector.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">That is because of the significant role of state lender CDP, as well as the fact that the Italian government retains a so-called "Golden Power" in TIM, allowing it to intervene in the company to protect strategic interests.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Perhaps we should give up hope that the European Commission will act as a brake on Italy's move towards more top-down government control over the economy.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The EU's competition commissioner since 2014, Margrethe Vestager—despite her zeal to reinterpret tax advantages to companies as "state aid"—has not done much to stop EU member states from bailing out companies or restricting competition.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">She has notably allowed bank bailouts as well as France's nationalisation of a shipyard to prevent it from being bought by an Italian competitor.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There's increasing appetite for state intervention across the globe, but Italy is particularly poorly positioned to afford it. With its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-economy-eu-analysis-idUSKBN2672DX" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">monstrous 158 percent</a> to GDP debt burden, it is ultimately dependent on the ECB - and therefore the mercy of other countries.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In the 1980s, before they were privatised, Italy's state-owned enterprises were poorly run and "bastions of inefficiency and privilege", <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-12-01/italy-reverts-to-its-bad-old-habits-on-eu-pandemic-fund?__twitter_impression=true&s=03" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2782ed; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">according to Bloomberg</a> journalist Ferdinando Giugliano.</p><p style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #32353a; font-family: "open sans", sans-serif; font-size: 1.15em; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 1.6em 0px; max-width: 800px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It's not hard to predict how this latest flirtation with statist economic policy will turn out, for Italy and for the eurozone.</p></div>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-62384139246929836292020-12-13T16:46:00.003+01:002020-12-17T16:47:55.484+01:00Al Jazeera interview on Brexit negotiations<p><br /></p>
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GP3Fa5VgqnQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-63462239067114848322020-12-07T16:00:00.014+01:002020-12-17T16:02:55.006+01:00Beyond the smoke and mirrors, a Brexit deal remains likely<p><i>Published in <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/pieter-cleppe/" target="_blank">The Telegraph</a></i></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Will this be the week when the shape of Brexit is finally settled? Yes, if the UK and the EU can agree their future relationship, to enter into force from the end of the “transition period”, on January 1, in a way that is legally clean.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">But difficulties persist in three main areas: First of all, fisheries. Secondly, the EU’s demand for the UK to accept a “level playing field”, a regulatory “straight jacket”, in return for a degree of tariff-free market access. Thirdly, the question on how to police the terms of the deal: “governance”. On top of that, a deal is also needed on the implementation of the Northern Irish aspects of the “withdrawal agreement”, which entered into force early this year.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney has stated he is "more optimistic"; now about progress made by the so-called EU-UK Joint Committee here. This follows rumours that the UK would be prepared to drop elements from the UK Internal Market and Finance Bills, which the EU sees as violating the terms of the divorce deal, if an EU-UK free trade deal is concluded.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">As always with these kinds of high-stake negotiations, everything is linked to everything else. When it comes to fisheries, the reports are that there has been progress over the past week, but no deal yet, despite some rumours on Sunday. France has now accepted that the EU will suffer reduced access to British waters, while there is also more awareness now in the UK that a no-deal would badly damage the fishing industry, particularly in Scotland, which relies heavily on being able to sell its fish to EU customers.</span></p><p><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 13px;">The EU is thought to be asking for 10 years</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> of "unfettered" access to British waters </span><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">while the UK is offering only a 3-year status quo </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">on certain fisheries access so far. Even if both sides would somehow meet in the middle, concessions here will in any case be linked to concessions on the other sticking points.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The level playing field sticking point very much relates to the heart of the changes Brexit will bring about: to what extent will the United Kingdom still need to take EU regulation into account in return for receiving a degree of EU market access? In the EU’s ideal world, the United Kingdom would receive full market access, in return for taking over all of the EU’s relevant regulations, as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein do.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Given that this is a no-go, the EU now aims to impose some kind of level playing field straitjacket in return for a so far unknown degree of market access. Interestingly, Stefaan de Rynck, an advisor to Michel Barnier has stressed that there is a “huge difference” between 'no-deal' and a deal, especially for certain sectors like the car industry and agriculture. In my opinion, this means that UK-based manufacturing is likely to continue to enjoy a large degree of market access.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">For car manufacturers, but also the chemicals and aerospace industries, it is of great importance that UK regulations covering products manufactured in the UK are recognised as “equivalent” by the EU, so these products can enter the EU, even if no tariffs were levied on them, something which seems likely, even with a degree of customs bureaucracy.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Equally, for EU food or textile producers, it’s very important that the UK accepts EU standards of production, even given the absence of tariffs. Switzerland enjoys proper EU market access for manufacturing, but not for financial services, and this is in line with Switzerland taking over most EU rules for the former sector but not for the latter.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">A likely compromise between the EU and the UK could involve the EU agreeing to water down the scope of its “Level Playing Field”, meaning that the UK would accept some concessions, mainly on state aid, but not so much on environmental and social standards, which are typically quite uncompetitive in the EU.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">In return, the UK would probably give some way on the core Brexit question: “governance”. This concerns the degree to which the promises made by the UK can be legally enforced: through an arbiter, or not? With a means for the EU to punish the UK by restricting market access if it violates the terms agreed? Through a unilateral EU decision or not? Those questions are of prime importance for the EU, and to the extent there will be points of EU law to be interpreted – the EU is legally required to demand that only its own top Court - the European Court of Justice – is able to settle those questions.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">In a nutshell: as long as the EU agrees to a watered down straitjacket and the UK to a binding way to enforce this, a deal will be agreed. Given the high stakes, with Covid continuing to plague the economies on both sides of the Channel, one would expect both sides to make an extra effort to avoid the damaging effects of a 'no-deal' outcome. That this would not be a rosy prospect for Britain, which would suddenly risk tariffs on half of its trade, has been widely accepted, but also for EU member states, it would mean massive economic damage at a most unwelcome time.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Germany would face a cost of 8.2 billion euros in annual exports, thousands of fishing jobs are at stake in the coastal member states and Ireland could potentially face even more damage than the UK itself, while it may even face extra checks on its exports to other EU countries, in the absence of a Northern Irish border.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Perhaps even more troubling than all the economic damage is that diplomatic ties would be hurt, at a time when the EU is witnessing ever greater political tensions between East and West, North and South. With all that in mind, EU leaders and especially Prime Minister Boris Johnson are likely to prefer to push through and seal a deal.</span><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br clear="none" style="background-color: white; color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 13px;"><i> </i></span></span></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-2690610092126044352020-12-02T16:07:00.011+01:002020-12-17T17:04:13.438+01:00Did Brexit lead to the UK’s vaccine success?<p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"> Published in <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/did-brexit-lead-to-the-uk-s-vaccine-success-" target="_blank">The Spectator</a></span></i></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Today the United Kingdom <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue;" target="_blank">became</a> the first country in the West to clinically authorise a vaccine protecting against Covid-19, after the medicines regulator, the MHRA, said the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was safe to use.</span></span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">The announcement puts Britain ahead of Europe when it comes to rolling out the vaccine, as the EU’s own regulator, the European Medicines Agency (EMA), has not yet approved the vaccine. While Britain will begin administering Pfizer’s vaccine next </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55145696" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">week</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">, countries like Belgium have </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/dossier-coronavirus/live-belgie-start-op-5-januari-met-vaccineren~ab6f01db/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">announced</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> that they will start their vaccination campaigns in January, subject to EMA approval.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">When it comes to vaccines, a few weeks of delay can make a big difference, given the economic and health costs of the pandemic. So it is perhaps not surprising that many people are wondering if Brexit gave Britain the freedom to approve the vaccine before the EU.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">Today’s </span><i style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">Financial Times</i><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1333877294822252545" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">carried</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> the headline, ‘regulatory delays to leave Europe trailing US and UK in vaccine race’. The</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">And this morning, the Health Secretary Matt Hancock, suggested the UK’s success </span><a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/13358384/brexit-vaccine-uk-first-hancock/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">was</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> at least partly down to Brexit:</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #26282a;">‘whilst until earlier this year we were in the European Medicines Agency (EMA), because of Brexit we've been able to make a decision to do this based on the UK regulator, a world-class regulator, and not go at the pace of the Europeans, who are moving a little bit more slowly.’</span></i></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">But is he correct?</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">Until January, the UK is still bound by the EU’s rules, which means that biotechnological medicines – and therefore candidate Covid-19 vaccines – still need to be authorised in the UK via the European Medicines Agency. But in the EU rules there is an </span><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/distributing-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19-and-flu/consultation-document-changes-to-human-medicine-regulations-to-support-the-rollout-of-covid-19-vaccines" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">exemption</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">, allowing countries to grant a ‘temporary authorisation’ if there is a compelling case on public health grounds.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">The UK regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), has </span><a href="https://news.yahoo.com/uks-covid-19-vaccine-approval-102754622.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">said</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> this is the legal route they used:</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #26282a;">‘We have been able to authorise the supply of this vaccine using provisions under European law, which exist until January 1<sup>st</sup>’</span></i></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">This does not necessarily prove Matt Hancock wrong. The Health Secretary has pointed out that ‘we do all the same safety checks and the same processes, but we have been able to speed up how they're done because of Brexit.’ In other words: the UK is still bound by the EU’s rules, but the body applying those rules is a UK institution. </span></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228;"><p class="yiv2384791796MsoNormal"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">According to UK Health Minister Nadine Dorries, a change in UK rules a month ago</span><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1334122869194940419" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">was </a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">instrumental to "exempt us from requiring EU approval. We would still be waiting if we hadn’t. Thanks to Brexit we can now move ahead swiftly and safely". In theory, the UK isn't allowed to diverge from EU rules until January 1st, and perhaps it</span><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1334109683246903297" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">hasn't</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">, but then the change at least</span><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> </span><a href="https://order-order.com/2020/12/02/german-health-minister-brexit-has-enabled-earlier-british-vaccine-rollout/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">removed </a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">the ambiguity surrounding the use of the procedure.</span></p></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228;"><p class="yiv2384791796MsoNormal"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">It is also the case that no other country has used the quicker procedure yet, as Britain did.</span></p></div><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">It may be because there has been strong political pressure on the EU side not to use the quicker procedure. At least, that is what German Health Minister Jens Spahn </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1334135461342810113" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">suggested</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">:</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #26282a;">‘We have member states, including Germany, who could have issued such an emergency authorisation if we'd wanted to. But we decided against this and what we opted for was a common European approach to move forward together.’</span></i></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">The reason, according to Spahn, was to make sure that ‘all 27 member states will have access to vaccines at the same time’ as ‘otherwise some member states may have been able to procure vaccines at an earlier stage that others.’ Who knows if Britain would have been subject to the same political pressures if it still were a member of the EU. Brexit definitely made it politically easier for the UK to ‘go it alone’.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">This is of course not a British vaccine. It will be </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55145696" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">produced</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> by Pfizer in Belgium and it was </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coornavirus-vaccine-biontech-pfizer/2020/11/12/37acb78c-2467-11eb-9c4a-0dc6242c4814_story.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">developed</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> by </span><a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/turkish-german-couple-behind-pfizer-biontech-vaccine" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">children</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> of Turkish immigrants to Germany. It is the result of an admirably international ecosystem, and shows how globalisation can save lives.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">If there is a lesson to be learned from the vaccine approval process, it should be that Brexit can enable the UK to become more agile, freed from the regulatory and political shackles of the EU, so it can better enjoy the fruits of globalisation.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">Regulatory flexibility and regulatory competition are surely a good thing. Although the EMA seems to have reacted with annoyance to the UK approving the vaccine (</span><a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1202/1181886-coronavirus-vaccine-eu/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">claiming</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> its own procedure is ‘the most effective regulatory mechanism’) it may make the regulator less inclined to drag its own feet. As long as the highest safety standards are met, regulatory competition is also a good thing for EU citizens.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">Members of the European Parliament – not known for their love of regulatory competition – have also </span><a href="https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1202/1181886-coronavirus-vaccine-eu/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">lashed</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> out at the UK’s authorisation, with a lawmaker from Angela Merkel’s CDU party, Peter Liese, calling it ‘problematic’ and a ‘hasty emergency marketing authorisation of a vaccine.’ At the moment we </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-eu/update-1-eu-warns-of-risks-of-covid-19-vaccine-race-after-uk-approval-of-pfizer-shot-idUSL1N2II0N3" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="color: blue; font-family: arial;" target="_blank">cannot know</a><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;"> if he is right or wrong. But that is the beauty of allowing different approaches. Through ‘trial and error’, we’ll learn what is the best regulatory approach.</span></p><p class="yiv2384791796ydp8bbf2641yiv2469013532ydp38e64e45yiv8096868675msonormal" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm;"><span style="color: #26282a; font-family: arial;">As the terms that will define EU-UK trade for decades are being negotiated as we speak, this is something UK negotiators must keep in mind: regulatory flexibility and competition is not only a great thing for Britain. It’s a great thing for the people of mainland Europe as well.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--block ContentPageBodyParagraph-module__paragraph--size-medium--spacing-normal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: minion-pro, serif; font-size: 2.5rem; line-height: 3.5rem; margin: auto auto 2rem; max-width: 90rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px 5rem; width: 720px;"><br /></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-50067266264077271102020-12-01T16:31:00.000+01:002020-12-17T16:36:23.438+01:00 De “Conferentie over de Toekomst van Europa”: een kans om de EU te herdenken?<p><i>Gepubliceerd op <a href="https://doorbraak.be/conferentie-over-de-toekomst-van-europa/">Doorbraak.be </a></i></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">De “Conferentie over de Toekomst van Europa”:
een kans om de EU te herdenken?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Binnenkort </span><a href="https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/guy-verhofstadt-is-sneuvelkandidaat-in-europees-toekomstdebat~b560f90c/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">start</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
op Europees niveau de zogenaamde “Conferentie over de Toekomst van Europa”. De
bedoeling hiervan is om overeenstemming te vinden over de vroeg hoe de Europese
Unie er binnen tien tot twintig jaar moet uitzien, welke bevoegdheden ze dient
te hebben en wat het beste besluitvormingsproces is. Het is de bedoeling niet
enkel de Europese en nationale instellingen te betrekken in dit proces, of de
zogenaamde “sociale partners”, maar evenzeer individuele burgers, </span><a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20200109IPR69906/citizens-to-be-the-cornerstone-of-the-conference-on-the-future-of-europe"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">via een</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
soort “thematische agora’s”, als het aan
het Europees Parlement ligt, tenminste. In het </span><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/progress-reports-citizens-dialogues-and-consultations_en"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">verleden</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Citizens%27_Consultations"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">leken</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
dergelijke vormen van burgerinspraak vooral op een praatbarak.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">De conferentie lijkt te moeten
passen in een lange traditie van wijzigingen van de Europese Verdragen, sinds
de “</span><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europese_Akte"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Europese Akte</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">” in de jaren ’80. Telkens opnieuw werden dergelijke
verdragswijzigingen gekenmerkt door steeds meer transfers van macht en
financiën naar het EU-niveau. Dat is opnieuw de overduidelijke intentie van
vele actoren.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">De laatste grote
verdragswijziging op EU-niveau - het “Verdrag van Lissabon” - werd uiteindelijk
goedgekeurd, maar slechts zeer moeizaam. Ook hier ging in 2002 een zogenaamde “</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_the_Future_of_Europe"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Conventie over de Toekomst van Europa</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">” aan vooraf, voorgezeten door de onlangs
overleden voormalige Franse President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. De uitkomst
hiervan was de “</span><a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verdrag_tot_vaststelling_van_een_Grondwet_voor_Europa"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Europese Grondwet</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">”, waarbij Giscard de “Euro-federalistische” agenda </span><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/valery-giscard-destaing-death-president-france-lessons-europe/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“top-down” doorduwde</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">. De Grondwet werd echter door de Franse en Nederlandse kiezer in
referenda weggestemd in 2005. Zodra echte burgerinspraak mogelijk is, lijken
burgers toch niet zo dociel.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Onder </span><a href="https://capx.co/merkels-mistakes/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">impuls
van</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> de net aan de macht
gekomen Duitse Kanselier Angela Merkel werd echter besloten om dit signaal te
negeren, en zette men alle zeilen bij om de inhoud van de Europese Grondwet –
zonder enkele symbolen dan – eenvoudigweg over te nemen in een nieuw Verdrag,
het Verdrag van Lissabon. De Franse en Nederlandse regeringen, die bij hoog en
laag bleven beweren dat het om een nieuwe inhoud ging en dat men dus wel
degelijk de referenda respecteerde, moeten ontzet zijn geweest toen Valéry
Giscard d’Estaing hier in 2007 </span><a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/valeacutery-giscard-destaing-the-eu-treaty-is-the-same-as-the-constitution-398286.htmlhttps:/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-treaty-is-a-constitution-says-giscard-destaing-395521.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">leukweg over zei</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> dat “de voorgestelde institutionele hervormingen allemaal te
vinden zijn in het Verdrag van Lissabon. Deze werden enkel op een andere manier
geordend”. Het Verdrag voorzag in elk geval - net zoals de Verdragen van Nice
en Amsterdam daarvoor - het schrappen van veto’s en het creëren van nieuwe
Europese bureaucratie, deze keer een permanent voorzitterschap van de Europees
Raad van staats- en regeringsleiders en een soort van Europese “Minister van
Buitenlandse Zaken”. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">In 2008 stemden dan ook
nog eens de Ieren tegen het Verdrag van Lissabon, waarna ze werden gevraagd om
een jaar later nog eens te gaan stemmen. Ook bij het Verdrag van Nice </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">kregen</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
de Ieren overigens de “kans” om het “juiste antwoord” te geven in een tweede
referendum. Het inmiddels beruchte Verdrag sneuvelde dan nog bijna bij de
nationale ratificatie, toen David Cameron in 2009 als Brits oppositieleider
vroeg aan de Tsjechische President Václav </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V%C3%A1clav_Klaus"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Klaus</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> om te wachten het document te ondertekenen tot
Cameron aan de macht zou komen, in mei 2010. Klaus bezweek echter onder de druk
en tekende.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">De ervaring draagt er
toe bij dat vele regeringen op dit moment sceptisch staan ten opzichte van een
nieuw rondje Europese verdragswijziging, ook gezien het feit dat er in heel wat
lidstaten een referendum kan nodig zijn. Frankrijk en Duitsland zouden wel </span><a href="https://www.knack.be/nieuws/europa/onduidelijkheid-over-toekomst-verhofstadt-waarom-op-voorhand-mensen-uitsluiten/article-longread-1666989.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">open</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
staan voor verdragswijziging, wat opmerkelijk is.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Op dit moment is er </span><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/helle-thorning-schmidt-emerges-as-frontrunner-to-lead-the-conference-on-the-future-of-europe/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">vooral aandacht</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> voor wie het postje krijgt van voorzitter van de
Conferentie. Fundamenteel is het volgens
mij echter wel een goed idee om eens na te denken welke Europese Unie we nu
precies willen. Een rode draad is dat er grote meningsverschillen bestaan
tussen de Europese lidstaten over de meeste belangrijke thema’s. Dat zou moeten
leiden tot de conclusie dat een nieuw rondje schrappen van veto’s tot heel wat
ongenoegen zal leiden.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Energiebeleid kan
hiervoor als eerste voorbeeld gelden. Frankrijk en Duitsland staan hier </span><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/france-and-germany-divided-over-nuclears-inclusion-in-eus-green-investment-label/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">tegenover elkaar</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> wat betreft het erkennen van nucleaire energie als “groen”. Ook
binnen de Benelux zijn er verschillen: de nieuwe Belgische regering is – jammer
genoeg - tegenstander, terwijl de grootste Nederlandse regeringspartij, VVD,
nieuwe kerncentrales wil.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Ook op vlak van de
aanpak van de “digitale sector” moet men niet ver kijken om verschillen te
ontdekken tussen: Luxemburg is tegen het belasten van digitale ondernemingen,
België voor en de Nederlandse regering staat ergens tussenin. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Voorts is ook op vlak
van de interne markt keer op keer gebleken hoe belangrijk het is voor kleine
landen om toch de eigen vrijheid te behouden een eigen fiscaal beleid te kunnen
voeren, alsook om regels op maat te kunnen uitvaardigen.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Met betrekking tot het
eerste wordt het Europese niveau steeds agressiever, waarbij Commissaris voor
concurrentiebeleid Margrethe Vestager sinds 2014 kruistochten voert tegen
belasting-akkoorden met grote ondernemingen door de Benelux-landen en Ierland.
Volgens haar zouden die akkoorden niet openstaan voor alle ondernemingen en
daarmee oneerlijke staatssteun zijn. Gelukkig werd ze door de hoogste Europese
rechtbank al enkele malen teruggefloten. Het is treurig om te moeten
vaststellen dat de Europese Commissie bijzonder enthousiast is om actie te
ondernemen bij dergelijke twijfelgevallen, maar ondertussen flagrante
schendingen van het verbod op staatssteun, ook voor de Corona-crisis, ongemoeid
laat. Zo </span><a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-eu-s-state-aid-hypocrisy"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">mocht</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
Frankrijk een scheepswerf nationaliseren, om die te beschermen tegen een Italiaanse
overname, en mocht Italië een bank belastinggeld toestoppen.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Voorts is ook het uitvaardigen
van eigen regels cruciaal voor kleinere landen. Binnen de EU was geen enkel
land op dit vlak zo succesvol als Luxemburg, dat een waar financieel centrum
heeft weten uit te bouwen voor "asset management", maar ook sinds
2017 een bijzonder vooruitstrevende wetgeving heeft om commercialisering van de
ruimte te faciliteren, waarbij de wetgeving in Luxemburg mede door de
beperktere douanetarieven zelfs meer mogelijkheden biedt hiervoor dan die in de
V.S. Met de steeds verdergaande harmonisering van Europese regelgeving, wordt
de ruimte voor lidstaten om via regelgeving een aantrekkelijk
investeringsklimaat aan te bieden echter steeds kleiner.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Harmonisatie van
regelgeving kan soms wel </span><a href="http://cleppe0.blogspot.com/2015/05/do-we-need-eu-regulation-to-open-up.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">helpen</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
om handelsbarrières te slopen, maar als dit </span><a href="http://cleppe0.blogspot.com/2015/05/do-we-need-eu-regulation-to-open-up.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">te ver doorgedreven</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> wordt, wat het geval lijkt </span><a href="http://cleppe0.blogspot.com/2015/05/do-we-need-eu-regulation-to-open-up.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">wanneer</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
twee derde van de impact van alle regels van het EU-niveau komt, verhindert dit
kleinere landen om een dynamisch beleid te voeren. Net het schrappen van nationale
veto’s op tal van gebieden zorgde ervoor dat harmonisering relatief makkelijker
werd.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Migratie lijkt iets wat
bij uitstek op het Europese niveau moet worden geregeld, maar in de afgelopen
jaren waren het net nationale beslissingen die chaotische migratiestromen
tegengingen. Op EU-niveau kwam men niet verder dan het opleggen van een
spreiding binnen de Schengenzone, wat niet enkel onzinnig is, gezien het feit
dat er geen paspoortcontroles zijn, maar ook voor nog meer ruzie met
Oost-Europa zorgde. Ook de deal van de EU met Turkije, die grotendeels </span><a href="https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/17507/eu-turkey-deal-has-left-syrians-in-limbo"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">onuitgevoerd</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> bleef, op de </span><a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/03/10/check-hoeveel-europees-geld-heeft-erdoan-nu-al-echt-gekregen-ui/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">transfers</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> naar Turkije na dan, had geen grote invloed.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">De beslissing van
Griekenland in 2016 om irreguliere migranten die van Turkije naar de Griekse
eilanden reisden niet langer toe te laten om via Athene en de Balkan naar
Noord-Europa te reizen, </span><a href="http://europeanpost.co/refugee-cities-as-an-alternative-to-tired-old-thinking-on-migration/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">zorgde daarentegen</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> voor een grote daling in het aantal verdrinkingsdoden in de Egeïsche
Zee. Dat mensen nu in verschrikkelijke omstandigheden vastzitten op die
eilanden is uiteraard een schande en moet worden opgelost door het voorzien van
een snelle en effectieve asielprocedure, wat ook perfect nationaal kan, al
zullen </span><a href="http://europeanpost.co/refugee-cities-as-an-alternative-to-tired-old-thinking-on-migration/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">nog ambitieuzer</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> oplossingen nodig zijn.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Europese landen kunnen
eventueel wel gezamenlijk optreden om regels voor immigratie waarvoor er wel
democratisch draagvlak bestaat – bijvoorbeeld van mensen met geschoolde
profielen - te coördineren of om derde landen die weigeren om hun eigen burgers
terug te verwelkomen te straffen met minder ontwikkelingshulp – die vaak toch
slecht wordt besteed – of minder soepele visa – voorwaarden – vaak iets waar de
betrokken regimes persoonlijk nadeel van ondervinden.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Ook het sluizen van nog
meer geld naar het Europese niveau </span><a href="http://cleppe0.blogspot.com/2019/10/speech-to-bundestags-eu-affairs.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">is een</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
</span><a href="https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/663096/10f9f73f40444bb1cc08c3bf932bc3f1/cleppe-data.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">bijzonder slecht idee</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">. Veel van de 1.000 miljard euro die de EU over 7 jaar uitgeeft
wordt </span><a href="https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/663096/10f9f73f40444bb1cc08c3bf932bc3f1/cleppe-data.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">verspild</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
aan eigenaars van landbouwgrond, terwijl regionale steunfondsen economisch
weinig effect </span><a href="https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/663096/10f9f73f40444bb1cc08c3bf932bc3f1/cleppe-data.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">hebben</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
gehad en volgens sommige studies de ontvangende regio’s zelfs hebben geschaad.
West-Europese landen kunnen weinig doen aan de ondermijning van de rechtsstaat
in vroegere Oostbloklanden, waar soms een soort van democratische en
economische hervormingsmoeheid heerst. Het enige wat ze wel kunnen doen, is om
geen geld te sturen naar landen met corruptiegevoelige instellingen. Het is
zelfs zo ver gekomen dat de leiders van </span><a href="https://euobserver.com/tickers/150252"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Tsjechië</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> en </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/03/world/europe/eu-farm-subsidy-hungary.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Hongarije</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> persoonlijk profiteren van Europese fondsen. Met het nieuwe
zogenaamde “herstelfonds”, waarbij op Europees niveau schulden worden
aangegaan, gaat er zowaar nog meer geld naar Oost-Europa, en natuurlijk ook
naar Zuid-Europa, waar volgens de Italiaanse Centrale Bank de georganiseerde
misdaad volop werd versterkt als gevolg van Europese fondsen. Kortgezegd:
institutionele hervormingen die het opnieuw nog makkelijker maken om grote
uitgavenprogramma’s op Europees niveau op te zetten en daarbij de Europese
bevolking met nog meer schulden op te zadelen, zijn echt wel het allerlaatste
waar we nu nood aan hebben.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Ook het idee om op
buitenlands vlak met gemeenschappelijke stem te spreken, zelfs als er geen
gemeenschappelijk standpunt is, kan de eigen positie uiteindelijk verzwakken.
Op veel vlakken is er verdeeldheid: denk maar aan hoe Italië en Frankrijk zich over
Libië positioneren, Duitsland en Frankrijk tegenover Turkije, of Italië en
Polen over Rusland. Het is hierbij niet zo dat het ene land “gelijk” heeft en
het andere niet. Soms is het beter om te erkennen dat er verschillende
benaderingen bestaan. Dit neemt niet weg dat het natuurlijk wel een meerwaarde
is om gezamenlijk op te treden wanneer er overeenstemming is, maar daarbij
neemt men best de Verenigde Staten, met zijn militaire capaciteit, eveneens
mee. Soms lijkt het wel alsof het doel van een gemeenschappelijke Europese
veiligheidsaanpak net is om afstand te gaan nemen van de natie met het sterkste
leger uit de geschiedenis, terwijl die nu al 75 jaar onze veiligheid
garandeert.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Bij een denkoefening
over de Europese Unie, zal men dus niet rond de conclusie kunnen dat de
centralisatie op sommige vlakken te ver is doorgeschoten, wat reeds </span><a href="https://www.1828.org.uk/2020/01/31/the-long-road-to-brexit-2/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">tot</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">
</span><a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/133806"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Brexit</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><a href="https://globalvisionuk.com/15-years-of-open-europe-the-think-tank-at-the-forefront-of-the-uks-relationship-with-the-eu/"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">leidde</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">,
maar ook tot de vele relletjes over geld tussen West en Oost, Zuid en Noord.
Terwijl de Europese interne markt Europeanen dichter bij elkaar brengt, zijn
transfers tot dusver vooral bron van ruzie gebleken. Als we willen verhinderen
dat de Europese Unie tot een ruzie-unie ontaardt, moeten we vooral de fouten
bij de vorige Verdragswijzigingen herstellen. Deze keer moet het gaan over
schrappen van bureaucratie en herstellen van veto’s op vlak van besluitvorming
over regelgeving en transfers. Zo komt het zwaartepunt van de Europese Unie
weer te liggen op waar de EU wel werkt: het bieden van een kader voor
grensoverschrijdende handel.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><br /><p></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-44637397754396046562020-12-01T16:04:00.000+01:002020-12-17T16:36:11.413+01:00Hoe China het beleid van westerse landen probeert te beïnvloeden<p><i>Gepubliceerd in <a href="https://www.ewmagazine.nl/opinie/opinie/2020/12/hoe-china-het-beleid-van-westerse-landen-probeert-te-beinvloeden-792492/" target="_blank">Elsevier magazine</a>. Een artikel meer specifiek over de Oeigoeren verscheen in <a href="https://doorbraak.be/china-dwangarbeid-tegen-armoede-en-radicalisering/" target="_blank">Doorbraak</a>. </i></p><p><i>China mengt zich steeds vaker in het publieke debat van Europese landen. Daarbij worden tactieken zoals intimidatie van critici en desinformatie niet geschuwd. De dreiging van de Chinese inmenging moet serieus worden genomen, schrijft Pieter Cleppe.</i></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;">De relatie tussen het Westen en China maakte de afgelopen jaren een hele ontwikkeling door. Niet zo lang geleden maakte het Westen zich vooral zorgen over de toegankelijkheid van de Chinese markt en de economische schade voor westerse bedrijven als gevolg van piraterij. Niet lang daarna kwamen daarbij: de overname van westerse bedrijven door China, het groeiende geopolitieke gewicht van China en de gevaren van Chinese technologie die als spionage-instrument kan worden aangewend – denk aan Huawei en 5G.</span></p><p></p><div id="dfp_vp_inarticle" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></div><div id="showheroes-ad" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; clear: both; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><div class="publisher-sh-spot-container" style="box-sizing: inherit; flex: 1 0 100%;"><div class="publisher-sh-spot" data-filled="true" data-player="171d7193-fd4f-41f5-a079-d41d97bd40cb" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 1440px; min-width: 240px; width: 711px;"></div></div></div></div><p></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px 0px 24px; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Een heel nieuwe zorg, die dit jaar pas werd geuit, is Chinese inmenging in het westerse politieke debat. Tot dusver vreesde men op dat vlak vooral Rusland, dat bedreven is in deze techniek sinds het Sovjettijdperk. Zo was er de door de KGB georganiseerde<span> </span><a href="https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/operation-denver-kgb-aids-disinformation-campaign/?fbclid=IwAR25Hb1vlDAB6dvEhaHmIWILdDeSqzXaYDv_nIKIq-aTNFgkPsjCWINI2KM" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration: none;">Operation Denver</a>, een disinformatie-<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/opinion/russia-meddling-disinformation-fake-news-elections.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration: none;">campagne</a><span> </span>met als doel de theorie te verspreiden dat de Verenigde Staten het hiv-virus hadden ontwikkeld als een soort van biologisch wapen. Het verhaal kwam via Afrikaanse media uiteindelijk ook in westerse media, onder meer in de Britse<span> </span><em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Daily Express</em>.</p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "Ciutadella W04", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-top: 0px; padding-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: small;">China was eerder amateuristisch met desinformatie</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Tijdens een recente <a href="https://www.facebook.com/EuropeanDemocracy1/videos/501646494089406" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">conferentie</a> van de Brusselse denktank European Foundation for Democracy waarschuwde de Litouwse expert Lukas Andriukaitis dat ‘China Rusland in sneltreinvaart voorbijgaat’ op het gebied van manipulatie van de westerse publieke opinie.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Tot nu toe was China volgens hem vrij amateuristisch, bijvoorbeeld door het <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-launches-new-twitter-accounts-90-000-tweets-covid-19-n1207991" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">massaal</a> versturen van tweets vanaf de accounts van Chinese overheidsinstanties. Daarbij <a href="https://www.axios.com/china-coronavirus-ambassador-cui-tiankai-1b0404e8-026d-4b7d-8290-98076f95df14.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">verspreidde</a> een hoge functionaris van het Chinese ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken ook de boodschap dat COVID-19 uit een laboratorium van de Amerikaanse overheid afkomstig is.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Het moet gezegd dat de Chinese ambassadeur in Washington dit dan weer ontkende, al is het de vraag hoe oprecht dit was. Australië kreeg zware Chinese economische sancties <a href="https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/11/30/canberra-woedend-op-beijing-om-tweet-a4022052" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">opgelegd</a> nadat de Australische premier het had aangedurfd om op te roepen tot een onafhankelijk onderzoek naar de <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/30/asia/wuhan-china-covid-intl/index.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">oorsprong</a> van het coronavirus. Voorts behoort ook het aanmaken van fake-volgers tot het Chinese repertoire. Zo is bijna de helft van de volgers van de Chinese ambassadeurs in de Verenigde Staten en het Verenigd Koninkrijk volgens Andriukaitis nep. Nogal klungelig allemaal en niet om ons veel zorgen over te maken.</p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "Ciutadella W04", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-top: 0px; padding-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: small;">China gebruikt Russische strategie</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Maar de zaken veranderen snel. Zo zou de Chinese regering volgens de expert ook kunstmatige intelligentie gebruiken om foute informatie veel beter te kunnen verspreiden. Op die manier zou de Chinese regering er eerder dit jaar in zijn geslaagd een succesvolle twitter-campagne te creëren met hashtags als #graziecina – wat ‘bedankt, China’ betekent – om China te bedanken voor de hulp aan Italië gedurende de coronacrisis afgelopen lente. De bedoeling is om de boodschap uit te dragen dat de andere Europese landen en de Europese Unie de Italianen intussen in de steek lieten. De helft van de tweets kwam van bots. De campagne was bijzonder geslaagd, aangezien ze in Italië zomaar even zestig miljoen impressies kreeg.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Dat laatste is ook wat Rusland probeert te doen: niet de voordelen van het eigen autoritaire systeem prijzen, maar de tekortkomingen van democratisch bestuurde rechtsstaten. Ook het achtervolgen van individuele landen, zoals in het geval van Australië, is daarbij standaard.</p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "Ciutadella W04", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-top: 0px; padding-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: small;">Europese Unie zwichtte voor Peking</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Voorts is ook de Chinese strategie om Europese Unie-beleid te sturen succesvol. Volgens <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">The</em> <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">New York Times</em> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/europe/disinformation-china-eu-coronavirus.html?smid=tw-share" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">zwichtte</a> de EEAS, de buitenlanddienst van de Europese Unie, ‘voor stevige druk uit Peking’ omdat ‘EU-ambtenaren hun kritiek op China afzwakten (…) in een rapport over hoe regeringen disinformatie over de coronacrisis proberen te verspreiden’.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">De EEAS <a href="https://twitter.com/stuartlauscmp/status/1254722872448253952" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">reageerde</a> op het artikel door de krant te beschuldigen op ‘kleine, onbenullige details’ te focussen. De dienst kwam niet veel later opnieuw in opspraak, omdat Norbert Röttgen, de voorzitter van de commissie Buitenlandse Zaken van het Duitse parlement kritiek had <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-rebukes-its-beijing-envoy-for-allowing-censorship-of-eu-letter/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">gegeven</a> op een brief die EU-ambassadeurs hadden gepubliceerd in<em style="box-sizing: inherit;"> China Today</em>, het officiële mediakanaal van de Chinese Communistische Partij. Ze hadden ook <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/europe-envoys-defend-decision-to-let-china-media-censor-column-on-coronavirus" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">aanvaard</a> dat het mediakanaal de zinsnede had weggezuiverd dat het coronavirus ‘in China’ was opgedoken – niet alleen een stokpaardje van de Amerikaanse president Donald Trump, maar dus ook van de Chinese heersende klasse.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Eerst verdedigde een EEAS-top-ambtenaar dit, wat hem later op een berisping kwam te staan. De ervaring toont alleszins aan dat de Chinese regering in staat is om succesvol invloed uit te oefenen op de hoogste diplomatieke echelons in de Europese Unie.</p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "Ciutadella W04", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-top: 0px; padding-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: small;">Intimidatie voor critici van heropvoedingskampen</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">In het debat over de Chinese behandelingen van de Oeigoeren is zichtbaar hoe sterk de Chinese regering begint in te zetten op pogingen tot manipulatie van de media en academici in het Westen. Human Rights Watch schat dat meer dan één miljoen Oeigoeren opgesloten zitten in een soort heropvoedingskampen, door de Amerikaanse minister van Buitenlandse Zaken Mike Pompeo ‘concentratiekampen’ genoemd, waar volgens hem ‘slavenarbeid’ plaatsheeft, wat plausibel is, omdat er<a href="https://nos.nl/artikel/2349620-china-bouwde-380-interneringskampen-in-xinjiang-in-drie-jaar.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;"> vaak</a> fabrieken vlak bij de kampen staan.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Mensenrechtenorganisaties zeggen dat er ook marteling, verplichte sterilisering en politieke indoctrinatie zouden plaatshebben. In het verleden hadden er terroristische aanslagen plaats en zou er ook sprake zijn van een zekere <a href="https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/20090304_cscp_oeigoeren.pdf" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">radicalisering</a> onder de Oeigoeren, maar dat kan natuurlijk nooit het opsluiten van één miljoen mensen rechtvaardigen.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Hierbij intimideert de Chinese regering blijkbaar ook onderzoekers in Europa. De Belgische universiteitshoogleraar Vanessa Frangville klaagde hier al over nadat de krant <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Le Soir</em> een ‘boze, intimiderende brief van de Chinese ambassade’ kreeg, met de vraag om een <a href="https://www.lalibre.be/debats/opinions/la-chine-doit-cesser-de-harceler-la-minorite-ouighoure-5bd5e5f7cd70e3d2f6639a0a" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">opiniestuk</a> dat zij in de krant had gepubliceerd over het Oeigoerse vraagstuk, terug te trekken.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Zumretay Arkin, die zich inzet voor de Oeigoerse zaak, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/EuropeanDemocracy1/videos/501646494089406" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">wijst</a> daarbij naar de volgens haar invloedrijke rol van de zogenoemde Confucius-instituten. Volgens Belgische academici zoals Jonathan Holslag, hoogleraar aan de Vrije Universiteit Brussel, is die vrees terecht. Hij zegt dat de Chinese regering via die <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/83195/brussels-university-to-close-chinese-funded-institute-after-espionage-accusations-vub-confucius-institute/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">instituten</a> invloed op het academisch debat probeert uit te oefenen, door het verzorgen van financiering, cursussen en docenten. Hij legt uit: ‘Hanban, de dienst binnen het Chinese ministerie voor Onderwijs, promootte het VUB-instituut in andere landen als een manier om de Confucius-instituten meer politieke expertise te laten opbouwen.’</p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "Ciutadella W04", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-top: 0px; padding-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: small;">Islamitische landen blijven stil</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">De directeur van dit instituut aan de Vrije Universiteit Brussel bleek vorig jaar echter een spion te zijn. Daarop besloot de Vrije Universiteit Brussel de samenwerking met de Chinese regering te beëindigen. De Universiteit Leiden deed trouwens hetzelfde dat jaar.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Holslag, een bekende in het Belgische publieke debat, waarschuwt dat de Chinese strategie ook op dit vlak succesvol is. Het gaat volgens hem erg ver: ‘De VUB koos ervoor weinig ruchtbaarheid te geven aan de herdenking van dertig jaar bloedbad van Tiananmen in 2019.’</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Ook in Nederland groeit de aandacht hiervoor. De CDA-fractie stelde in juli nog parlementaire vragen aan de regering, uit <a href="https://www.oogtv.nl/2020/07/confucius-instituut-groningen-krijgt-mogelijk-nieuwe-naam-cda-stelt-kamervragen/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">bezorgdheid </a>over het samenwerkingscontract tussen het – intussen wel van naam veranderd – Confucius Instituut en de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, de Hanzehogeschool en de gemeente Groningen.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">De groeiende aandacht voor de Oeigoerse zaak in het Westen staat in schril contrast met landen met een islamistische meerderheid zoals <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1320733002364817409" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> of de <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08t0pfp" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">Golfstaten</a>, die over deze kwestie stil blijven. Het kan de geloofwaardigheid van het Westen wat betreft vrije meningsuiting en mensenrechten bij moslims alleen versterken.</p><h2 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; font-family: "Ciutadella W04", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 12px; margin-top: 0px; padding-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: small;">Tijd om inmenging serieus te nemen</span></h2><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Ook binnen de Verenigde Naties kunnen westerse landen beter. Zij <a href="https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1315414823841259532" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">lieten</a> in het verleden <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article246118980.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">toe</a> dat de Chinese regering in de <a href="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensenrechtenraad_van_de_Verenigde_Naties#:~:text=De%20Mensenrechtenraad%20van%20de%20Verenigde,zitting%20hebben%20in%20deze%20raad." style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">Mensenrechtenraad</a> van de Verenigde Naties werd toegelaten, waarbij ook de Nederlandse regering <a href="https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1315414823841259532" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #db011c; text-decoration-line: none;">geen protest uitte</a>. Men kan de Verenigde Naties afdoen als een praatbarak, maar dergelijke organen verlenen wel diplomatieke respectabiliteit aan de Chinese regering, alsook de mogelijkheid om haar visie door te drukken in allerlei internationale rapporten, die dan weer kunnen worden gebruikt als basis voor beleidsbeïnvloeding in het Westen.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #3a3a3a; font-family: "FF Meta Serif W01", Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px 0px 24px;">Natuurlijk kan het Westen weinig veranderen aan wat er allemaal in China gebeurt, maar doelbewuste inmenging in het westerse publieke debat door het financieren van academisch onderzoek of het intimideren van onderzoekers moet absoluut als een rode lijn worden beschouwd. De zaken veranderen snel, dus het is de hoogste tijd om dit serieus te nemen.</p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-19259500987807749342020-11-20T16:14:00.003+01:002020-12-17T16:17:25.294+01:00To win the war, stop fighting<p><i> Published on <a href="https://thecritic.co.uk/to-win-the-war-stop-fighting/">The Critic </a>and in Belgian magazine <a href="https://www.knack.be/nieuws/belgie/pak-de-drugsmaffia-en-de-ondergrondse-economie-aan-door-legalisering-en-deregulering/article-opinion-1653363.html" target="_blank">Knack</a>, in Dutch, also to be found hereunder.</i></p><p><i><br /></i></p><p><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span class="sf-article-content__dropcap" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; float: left; font-family: "Sentinel A", "Sentinel B", serif; font-size: 6.75rem; font-weight: 700; line-height: 5.5rem; margin-right: 10px;">L</span>ooking at the underground economy in continental Europe this year is an instructive study as to how we should move past the failed “war on drugs”. Organised crime groups are prospering mightily from Covid restrictions that come on top of other well-intended restrictions, for example the prohibition of drugs. Let us see what is really happening so that we can consider what ought to be sensibly done instead.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">This summer, drug violence </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/dossier/aanslagen-in-antwerpen" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">escalated</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> in </span><a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/port-antwerp-belgium-cocaine-europe/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Antwerp</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">, Europe’s second biggest port. In 2016, the city took over from London as Europe’s “</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2016/dec/14/antwerp-overtakes-london-as-cocaine-capital-of-europe" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">cocaine capital</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">”. While the police and prosecutors are being </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/in-de-buurt/antwerpen/antwerpse-procureur-bedolven-onder-drugszaken-1-300-dossiers-in-onderzoek~ae205eea/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">flooded</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> with cases related to narcotics, notwithstanding the campaign waged against them by Antwerp Mayor Bart De Wever from 2013 on, </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/in-de-buurt/antwerpen/granaatgooiers-veroordeeld-tot-6-jaar-cel-een-geluk-dat-er-geen-doden-zijn-gevallen~a62b1fd4/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">grenade attacks</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> on houses in the middle of ordinary neighbourhoods keep happening. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">In Brussels, the situation is also tense. Belgian Police official Alain De Proft recently </span><a href="https://www.bruzz.be/veiligheid/top-federale-gerechtelijke-politie-drugsgeweld-brussel-lijkt-te-escaleren-2020-09-24" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">explained</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> how drug clans operate: “they often have the same structure: a number of core members, with behind them a network of commercial legal entities, strawmen and a series of support elements in the certain neighbourhood. One clan can have quite a bit of impact in a neighbourhood: bars and restaurants serve as a sales point for drugs, real estate, you name it.” Clearly, drug trafficking is not all that different from a regular business.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Peter Muyshondt, who used to be police commissioner in the area around Antwerp, </span><a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20160604_02323514" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">supports</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> a completely different policy approach to repression: “Drugs should be removed from the illegal sphere”, he thinks, “because current drug policies inflict more damage than drugs themselves … Instead of criminalising drugs, it would be better for society to limit the damage they inflict”.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">As counter-intuitive it may sound, he may be right. Others, like Vicente Fox, the former President of Mexico, which of course has been infamously hard hit by drug violence, have come to a similar </span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/22/vicente-fox-legalizing-drugs-is-the-way-to-combat-cartels.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">conclusion</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">: “Legalization of drugs is the way to combat cartels”.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;"><br />He has also </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Bart_DeWever/status/1166272452734914560" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; font-size: 1.25rem; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">argued</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;"> that in Canada, where production of cannabis was also </span><a href="https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/is-weed-legal-in-canada-cannabis-laws-where-to-buy" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; font-size: 1.25rem; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">legalised</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;">, organised crime remained very active nevertheless. Then Canada imposed lots of </span><a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/minor-changes-could-have-a-major-positive-impact-on-ontarios-cannabis-plan-2/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; font-size: 1.25rem; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">restrictions</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;">, which left </span><a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/minor-changes-could-have-a-major-positive-impact-on-ontarios-cannabis-plan-2/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; font-size: 1.25rem; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">great</span></a><span style="font-size: 1.25rem;"> </span><a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/?s=luxembourg+cannabis" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; font-size: 1.25rem; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">opportunities</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;"> for crime groups. To his credit, De Wever does take this into account. He </span><a href="https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/bart-de-wever-n-va-over-legalisering-drugs-een-optie-die-men-onder-ogen-moet-durven-zien~bb958301/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; font-size: 1.25rem; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">thinks</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;"> that if drugs would be legalised, “it would in that case need to happen recklessly, not doing it halfway. Because otherwise, the criminals operating in the black market would merely be provided with a legitimate front”.</span>Opponents of this idea will claim that legalising cannabis sales in the Netherlands has not ended the role of the drug mafia. But production was never legal in the Netherlands, so this remained the business of organised crime. Antwerp’s Mayor Bart De Wever, who’s frenetically dealing with the challenge, may be an opponent of legalisation but he still </span><a href="https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/bart-de-wever-n-va-over-legalisering-drugs-een-optie-die-men-onder-ogen-moet-durven-zien~bb958301/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">thinks</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> that – theoretically at least – legalisation “is an option that one needs to consider”, even if he calls the option “terrible”.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">At the moment, </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/07/luxembourg-to-be-first-european-country-to-legalise-cannabis?fbclid=IwAR0m2_RDvi641kcNDQJHr5m_q9_g4G8qrWb8ciPEfVTSzkAbS4M80kXHrak" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Luxembourg</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> is actually </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/07/luxembourg-to-be-first-european-country-to-legalise-cannabis?fbclid=IwAR0m2_RDvi641kcNDQJHr5m_q9_g4G8qrWb8ciPEfVTSzkAbS4M80kXHrak" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">planning</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> to completely </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/07/luxembourg-to-be-first-european-country-to-legalise-cannabis?fbclid=IwAR0m2_RDvi641kcNDQJHr5m_q9_g4G8qrWb8ciPEfVTSzkAbS4M80kXHrak" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">legalise</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> cannabis, as the first European country to do this. We can only hope it will </span><a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/consumer-choice-center-makes-headlines-and-promotes-smart-cannabis-legalization-in-luxembourg/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">learn</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> from Canada’s mistakes.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Former police commissioner Peter Muyshondt has </span><a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20160604_02323514" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">made</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> the case for not only legalising cannabis, but also other narcotics, such as XTC and even heroin, but then “with strong government checks”.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">This is less extreme than it sounds, because Portugal has actually </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/dec/05/portugals-radical-drugs-policy-is-working-why-hasnt-the-world-copied-it" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">decriminalised</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> the use of both soft drugs and hard drugs since 2001, something Oregon voters also just </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/09/politics/oregon-decriminalize-drugs-trnd/index.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">decided</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">. This does </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/upshot/portugal-drug-legalization-treatment.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">not</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> mean that one can trade these products It only means that the government will not criminally prosecute consumption, apart from a low fine. Portugal’s experience is very interesting, because it became </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/425249219402661888" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">evident</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> that drug addiction </span><a href="https://transformdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation-in-portugal-setting-the-record-straight/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">did not increase</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> as a result of the policy. On the contrary, the country experienced a dramatic drop in the number of overdoses and HIV infections. This in great contrast to thirty years ago, when the country was plagued by huge amounts of heroin addiction. Decriminalisation, as an option, has not appeared out of the blue, but as the conclusion of policies whereby addicts were not treated as criminals, but as victims. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Of course, crimes still need to be prosecuted, not least when committed by drug addicts. The logic that the many problems resulting from drug abuse should be tackled at root – by criminalising drugs – can be understood, but in practice, this approach has inexorably led to even more crime. To ban drugs leads to opportunities for crime groups comparable with those existing for Al Capone at the time of alcohol prohibition in the United States. Whatever was wrong with alcohol, prohibition made it vastly worse for ordinary Americans: who seriously doubts this today?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">There are worrying reports of the enormous financial firepower of the drug mafia. Belgian police official Stanny De Vlieger </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/in-de-buurt/antwerpen/politiechef-antwerpse-drugsmaffia-betaalt-honderdduizenden-euro-s-voor-corrupte-handlangers~aa5dd822/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">warned</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> in 2018 in a confidential report for corruption linked to drugs, “and then not just corruption committed by port workers that handle delivery of cocaine from containers. Several of our cases point at links between customs and police”. Mayor De Wever even </span><a href="https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20180903_03698552" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">warned</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> in 2018: “Antwerp is finding itself at the edge of where they are buying themselves political influence”. Fans of TV series </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wire" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">The Wire</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> will find this all too familiar. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">A second important consequence of legalising drugs is that the </span><a href="https://www.cato.org/research/drug-war" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">health risks</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> of drug products will be a lot smaller when produced by legitimate companies than if produced by the likes of “</span><a href="https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/dikke-nordin-van-den-dam-is-spilfiguur-van-antwerpse-drugsmaffia~ba631626/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">Fat Nordin van den Dam</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">“, a Belgian-Moroccan drug lord who </span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">was recently arrested in Dubai.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">More and more voices within the corporate world are pointing at the economic potential and the benefits of turning the drugs business into a business subject to daylight. Chris Burggraeve, a former top executive of beer giant AB InBev and an investor into America’s cannabis industry, </span><a href="https://newsmonkey.be/ex-ab-inbev-topman-wil-dat-cannabis-legaal-wordt-in-belgie-en-dit-is-zijn-plan/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">thinks</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> cannabis should be legalised from 2021 on in Belgium, which is precisely 100 years after the country banned the product. It would be a first good step into the right direction, and also does not require changes to international </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_Convention_on_Narcotic_Drugs" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">treaties</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">, which is needed to legalise hard drugs.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;"><br />What is true for the drug trade is equally the case for other sectors within the underground economy. All kinds of well-intentioned initiatives to strictly regulate cigarettes, gambling products, alcohol, prostitution and trade in wild animals, tend to result in underground alternatives becoming comparatively cheaper, more accessible and therefore more attractive. Legitimate companies see their income eroded by criminals, who add it to their daily occupation of human smuggling, theft and protection rackets. On their own, those activities would never be sufficient to provide organised crime an income of </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/782f6944-b753-11e4-981d-00144feab7de" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; font-size: 1.25rem; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">1%</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.25rem;"> of Europe’s GDP.</span>In countries like Italy, organised crime </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-mafia-drugs-idUSKCN0W42H3" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">makes</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> as much money from drugs as car manufacturer Fiat makes from selling cars. The Portuguese precedent proves that legalisation does not have an effect on the addiction rate, which is </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/256759476659556353" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">also the case</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> in the United States, despite 50 years of America’s “war on drugs”. The fear for an increase in the number of addictions is the main reason to oppose legalisation, but both the American and Portuguese experiences show that ultimately, a very tough or very relaxed policy with regards to drugs does not affect addiction rates. Legalisation will not solve all issues, but it would make drugs safer and it would signify a massive financial loss to criminals.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">A </span><a href="https://go.euromonitor.com/white-paper-consulting-2020-COVID-19-and-illicit-trade.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">report by Euromonitor</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> makes all of that clear. It concludes how the Covid crisis, which led to a lot of extra government intervention, has provided organised crime with a lot of extra opportunities. In particular, demand for medical protection equipment has led to much more illegally produced items. I</span><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">llicit cigarettes were being smuggled under the cover of personal protective equipment (PPE).</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">The Euromonitor report </span><a href="https://go.euromonitor.com/white-paper-consulting-2020-COVID-19-and-illicit-trade.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #fa7a00; touch-action: manipulation;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">mentions</span></a><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"> how the governments of Malaysia and South Africa “placed an outright ban on the sale and use of tobacco products to curb use during the COVID-19 pandemic”. As a result, “In South Africa, the price of a pack of cigarettes has reportedly tripled”, also costing millions in lost taxes. It notes that “In France, where the resale of masks was outlawed, the government captured over 500,000 masks while dismantling smuggling rings valued at over 30 million euro in April alone.” </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">To legalise or alienate the regulatory burden not only of narcotics but also of all kinds of other products would squeeze the profit margins of crime groups, thereby pushing shady operators out of the market. They’re in it to make money, after all: hit their profit margins and you’ll put them out of business. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">The lesson here is that it is better to think twice before regulating or taxing things heavily, whether in a crisis or not. The police and the judiciary may do their best, but that won’t make a difference as long as excessive regulations or outright bans that have not been thought through continue to offer a market to organised crime. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;">***</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">Deze zomer laaide het drugsgeweld in </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/dossier/aanslagen-in-antwerpen" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; touch-action: manipulation;">Antwerpen</a><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;"> opnieuw op. Terwijl het gerecht wordt </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/in-de-buurt/antwerpen/antwerpse-procureur-bedolven-onder-drugszaken-1-300-dossiers-in-onderzoek~ae205eea/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; touch-action: manipulation;">bedolven</a><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;"> onder de drugszaken, een gevolg van de "War on Drugs" die Antwerps burgemeester Bart De Wever in 2013 lanceerde, blijven de </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/in-de-buurt/antwerpen/granaatgooiers-veroordeeld-tot-6-jaar-cel-een-geluk-dat-er-geen-doden-zijn-gevallen~a62b1fd4/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; touch-action: manipulation;">granaataanvallen</a><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;"> in woonwijken maar komen. Ook in Brussel lijkt het drugsgeweld te escaleren, </span><a href="https://www.bruzz.be/veiligheid/top-federale-gerechtelijke-politie-drugsgeweld-brussel-lijkt-te-escaleren-2020-09-24" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; touch-action: manipulation;">aldus</a><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;"> de gerechtelijke politie. Zo legde Alain De Proft </span><a href="https://www.bruzz.be/veiligheid/top-federale-gerechtelijke-politie-drugsgeweld-brussel-lijkt-te-escaleren-2020-09-24" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; touch-action: manipulation;">recent nog aan Bruzz uit </a><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">hoe drugsclans er opereren: 'Ze hebben doorgaans dezelfde structuur: een aantal kernleden, met daaronder een kluwen van commerciële vennootschappen met stromannen en verschillende steunpunten in de wijk... Je ziet dat één clan behoorlijk wat maatschappelijke impact kan hebben in een wijk: horecazaken als verkooppunt voor drugs, immobiliën, noem maar op.' Er zit dus een structuur achter die niet zo veel verschilt van die van een reguliere onderneming.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">Peter Muyshondt, voormalig hoofdcommissaris van de lokale politie Voorkempen, is één van de pleitbezorgers voor een heel andere aanpak. 'Drugs moeten uit de illegaliteit gehaald worden', </span><a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20160604_02323514" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; touch-action: manipulation;">vindt hij</a><span style="color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">, 'omdat het huidige drugsbeleid meer schade berokkent dan de drugs zelf. (...) In plaats van drugs te criminaliseren is het als maatschappij beter ervoor te zorgen dat de schade door drugs beperkt blijft.'</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Hoe anti-intuïtief het ook klinkt: de man kan wel eens gelijk hebben. Hij is alvast in het gezelschap van sp.a-politica en ex-politieambtenaar <a href="https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/jinnih-beels-war-on-drugs-heeft-gefaald~a0c73fcb/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">Jinnih Beels</a>, maar ook van <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/22/vicente-fox-legalizing-drugs-is-the-way-to-combat-cartels.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">Vicente Fox</a>, de voormalige president van het door drugsgeweld zwaar geteisterde Mexico, die tot de volgende conclusie is gekomen: 'Legalisering van drugs is de manier om de drugskartels aan te pakken.'</p><div id="below_para_4" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Tegenstanders zullen opwerpen dat de legalisering van de verkoop van cannabis in Nederland de drugsmaffia toch ook niet aan banden heeft gelegd. De productie was er echter nooit legaal, dus bevoorrading bleef zo een zaak van de georganiseerde misdaad. De burgemeester van Antwerpen, Bart De Wever, is een tegenstander van legalisering, maar <a href="https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/bart-de-wever-n-va-over-legalisering-drugs-een-optie-die-men-onder-ogen-moet-durven-zien~bb958301/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">geeft</a> tegenover een Nederlandse onderzoeker nu toch ook voorzichtig toe dat - theoretisch gezien - legalisering "een optie [is] die men onder ogen moet durven zien", al noemt hij ze "afschuwelijk".</p><div id="below_para_5" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Hij <a href="https://twitter.com/Bart_DeWever/status/1166272452734914560" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">merkte onlangs op dat</a> ook in <a href="https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/is-weed-legal-in-canada-cannabis-laws-where-to-buy" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">Canada</a>, waar de productie van cannabis wel degelijk ook werd gelegaliseerd, de rol van de georganiseerde misdaad in drugs sterk bleef. In Canada lieten <a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/minor-changes-could-have-a-major-positive-impact-on-ontarios-cannabis-plan-2/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">tal van restricties</a> echter <a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/minor-changes-could-have-a-major-positive-impact-on-ontarios-cannabis-plan-2/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">grote</a> <a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/?s=luxembourg+cannabis" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">opportuniteiten</a> voor criminelen. Zo is dat ook voor alcohol en tabak het geval, mede door de zware belastingen er op. In zekere zin <a href="https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/bart-de-wever-n-va-over-legalisering-drugs-een-optie-die-men-onder-ogen-moet-durven-zien~bb958301/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">verwijst</a> De Wever daar ook naar, wanneer hij tegen de Nederlandse onderzoeker stelt over legalisering: 'Het enige waar ik dan voor pleit is: doe het rücksichtslos, doe het niet halfwas. Want dan geef je het crimineel-kapitalistische systeem een witte voorkant.'</p><div id="below_para_6" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">I<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/07/luxembourg-to-be-first-european-country-to-legalise-cannabis?fbclid=IwAR0m2_RDvi641kcNDQJHr5m_q9_g4G8qrWb8ciPEfVTSzkAbS4M80kXHrak" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;" target="_blank">n Luxemburg liggen momenteel de plannen op tafel voor een volledige legalisering van cannabis.</a> We kunnen alleen hopen dat ze het daar <a href="https://consumerchoicecenter.org/consumer-choice-center-makes-headlines-and-promotes-smart-cannabis-legalization-in-luxembourg/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;" target="_blank">verstandiger</a> zullen aanpakken.</p><div id="below_para_7" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Vanuit zijn eigen ervaring <a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20160604_02323514" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">pleit</a> Peter Muyshondt er verder voor om niet enkel cannabis, maar ook andere drugs zoals xtc en heroïne te legaliseren, weliswaar 'met strenge controles door de overheid'.</p><div id="below_para_8" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Dit is minder extreem dan het klinkt, want sinds 2001 reeds <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/dec/05/portugals-radical-drugs-policy-is-working-why-hasnt-the-world-copied-it" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">werden</a> het gebruik van zowel softdrugs als harddrugs gedecriminaliseerd in Portugal. Dit betekent niet dat men er handel in kan drijven. Het betekent enkel dat de overheid zich <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/upshot/portugal-drug-legalization-treatment.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">niet</a> bezig houdt met crimineel vervolgen van gebruikers, buiten een lage boete dan. De ervaring in Portugal is zeer interessant omdat er gebleken is dat <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/425249219402661888" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">drugsverslaving</a> <a href="https://transformdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation-in-portugal-setting-the-record-straight/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">niet is toegenomen</a>. Men zag er integendeel een dramatische daling van het aantal overdosissen, HIV-besmettingen en aan criminaliteit gerelateerde drugs. Dit was een groot contrast met dertig jaar terug, toen het land geteisterd werd door een heroïneplaag. Men koos voor decriminalisering als sluitstuk van een beleid waarbij verslaafden niet als criminelen maar als slachtoffers worden gezien.</p><div id="below_para_9" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Niettemin moet men natuurlijk nog steeds misdrijven vervolgen, ook indien die door verslaafden worden gepleegd. De redenering dat men de vele problemen ten gevolge van drugsmisbruik aan de oorzaak moet aanpakken - door drugs te criminaliseren - valt uiteraard te begrijpen, maar in de praktijk kan die aanpak op zijn beurt juist tot meer criminaliteit leiden. Dit valt te vergelijken met de opportuniteiten die voor de georganiseerde misdaad ontstonden ten tijde van Al Capone en de drooglegging in de Verenigde Staten.</p><div id="below_para_10" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><div class="pull-right" id="customer-journey-placeholder" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Ook vandaag horen we verontrustende berichten over de enorme financiële slagkracht van de drugsmaffia. In 2018 <a href="https://www.hln.be/in-de-buurt/antwerpen/politiechef-antwerpse-drugsmaffia-betaalt-honderdduizenden-euro-s-voor-corrupte-handlangers~aa5dd822/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">waarschuwde</a> Stanny De Vlieger van de federale politie in een vertrouwelijk rapport voor het gevaar van corruptie en dan "niet enkel de corruptie bij de dokwerkers die ladingen cocaïne uit containers halen. Verschillende van onze dossiers tonen linken aan naar bijvoorbeeld douane en politie." Bart De Wever <a href="https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20180903_03698552" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">waarschuwde</a> in 2018 zelfs: "in Antwerpen staan we op de rand dat men zich ook politieke invloed aan het inkopen is." Wie enigszins vertrouwd is met de HBO-serie <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wire" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">"The Wire"</a>, zal dit allemaal heel herkenbaar vinden.</p><div id="below_para_11" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Een tweede belangrijk gevolg van drugscriminalisering is dat de <a href="https://www.cato.org/research/drug-war" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">gezondheidsrisico's</a> van drugs heel wat kleiner zijn wanneer ze worden geproduceerd door legitieme ondernemingen dan door figuren zoals "<a href="https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/dikke-nordin-van-den-dam-is-spilfiguur-van-antwerpse-drugsmaffia~ba631626/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">Dikke Nordin van den Dam</a>", een Belgisch-Marokkaanse drugsbaron, die onlangs in Dubai werd gearresteerd.</p><div id="below_para_12" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Meer en meer stemmen binnen de bedrijfswereld wijzen op het economisch potentieel en de voordelen om verdovende middelen bovengronds te trekken. Chris Burggraeve, voormalig topman van de bierreus AB InBev en investeerder in de Amerikaanse cannabis-industrie, <a href="https://newsmonkey.be/ex-ab-inbev-topman-wil-dat-cannabis-legaal-wordt-in-belgie-en-dit-is-zijn-plan/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">pleit</a> er voor om cannabis opnieuw volledig legaal te maken in België vanaf 2021. Dat zou dan exact 100 jaar zijn nadat het product illegaal werd. Het zou alvast een eerste goede stap in de juiste richting zijn, en is ook mogelijk zonder wijziging van de internationale <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_Convention_on_Narcotic_Drugs" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">verdragen</a> nodig voor een legalisering van harddrugs.</p><div id="below_para_13" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">In landen zoals Italië <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-mafia-drugs-idUSKCN0W42H3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">verdient</a> de georganiseerde misdaad evenveel aan drugs als autobouwer Fiat aan auto's. Als het Portugese voorbeeld aantoont dat een legalisering de verslavingscijfers alvast niet doet stijgen, <a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/256759476659556353" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">net zoals</a> dat in de V.S. al 50 jaar het geval is, ondanks hun vermetele "war on drugs", moeten we ons toch eens gaan afvragen of het niet anders kan. De vrees voor meer verslavingen is vaak het argument om drugs te verbieden. Een legalisering zal niet alle problemen oplossen, maar zal drugs alvast veiliger maken en een immense financiële aderlating betekenen voor criminelen.</p><div id="below_para_14" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Wat geldt voor drugshandel, is evenzeer het geval voor andere sectoren van de ondergrondse economie. Allerlei goedbedoelde regelgevende initiatieven om sigaretten, gokproducten, alcohol, prostitutie en handel in wilde dieren strikt te omkaderen hebben, kunnen ook als effect hebben dat de ondergrondse alternatieven hiervoor goedkoper, toegankelijker en dus aantrekkelijker worden. Legitieme ondernemingen zien hierdoor hun inkomen afgeroomd door criminelen, die het als een welkome aanvulling zien voor hun dagelijkse activiteiten van mensenhandel, diefstal en oplichting. Die activiteiten zouden nooit volstaan om de georganiseerde misdaad een inkomen van <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/782f6944-b753-11e4-981d-00144feab7de" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">1 procent</a> van het Europese BBP te bezorgen.</p><div id="below_para_15" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Volgens een rapport van onderzoeksbureau <a href="https://go.euromonitor.com/white-paper-consulting-2020-COVID-19-and-illicit-trade.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">Euromonitor</a> zorgde de coronacrisis, die tot heel wat extra overheidsinmenging leidde, tegelijk voor nog meer opportuniteiten voor de georganiseerde misdaad, aangezien deze "baat heeft bij een ineffectief regelgevend kader, aanbodtekorten, veranderde klantvoorkeuren en prijsverschillen". In het bijzonder de grote vraag naar medisch beschermingsmateriaal, leidde tot een veel hogere vraag naar illegaal geproduceerde producten.</p><div id="below_para_16" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Ook in de <a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/10/06/de-stock-die-levens-had-kunnen-redden/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #d9001a; cursor: pointer; touch-action: manipulation;">VRT Pano-reportage</a> over het gebrek aan mondmaskers deze lente, kwam naar voren hoe mondmaskers werden afgekeurd omdat productienormen steeds maar werden verstrengd, in een goedbedoelde poging van de overheid om kwaliteitsmondmaskers te bemachtigen. Een half miljoen mondmaskers bedoeld voor de Vlaamse overheid bleek afgekeurd enkel omdat er op een aantal verpakkingen geen sticker was. Legitieme ondernemingen bleven achter met een onverkoopbare stock, wat hen weer een stuk minder competitief maakte ten opzichte van de concurrentie uit de informele sector, een patroon dat volgens de studie van Euromonitor maar al te vertrouwd is.</p><div id="below_para_17" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: utopia-std, serif; font-size: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.875rem; margin-bottom: 1.875rem; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 70ch; width: 700px;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit;"></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">De les van dit alles is dat men twee keer moet nadenken voor men zaken zwaar gaat reguleren of belasten, al dan niet in de context van een crisis. Los van mogelijke voordelen zijn hier steeds ook grote nadelen aan verbonden, met als belangrijkste nadeel een versterking van de georganiseerde misdaad. De gerechtelijke diensten mogen nog zo veel hun best doen als zij willen, zolang ondoordachte regelgeving een markt creëert voor de georganiseerde misdaad, blijft het dweilen met de kraan open.</p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-21315014262040094782020-11-12T16:11:00.001+01:002020-12-17T16:12:40.737+01:00Taking Stock of What a Joe Biden Presidency Means for Brexit Negotiations<p><i> Published on the <a href="http://dcubrexitinstitute.eu/2020/11/taking-stock-of-what-a-joe-biden-presidency-means-for-brexit-negotiations/">website </a>of the Brexit Institute of Dublin City University</i></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The question of how the prospect of a Joe Biden Presidency will affect EU-UK negotiations has raised a lot of attention.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">Opinions seem to differ. Former Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/11/joe-biden-no-friend-britain/" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">writes</a> that “Joe Biden is no friend of Britain”, arguing that therefore, the UK, “is now far more likely to do the deal that Brussels wants.” Columnist Wolfgang Munchau on the other hand, makes the case that “diplomacy does not work like a dating network”, dismissing that a Biden presidency would leave the UK more isolated, also because the UK’s position on China and Russia is closer to Biden’s stance than the positions taken by EU member states here. The UK government itself has stressed that a Biden Presidency <a href="https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1325554117570416646" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">does not</a> make a difference to their approach to Brexit.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">Any deal is supposed to enter into force on January 1<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">st</span>, so for international negotiations, this is all incredibly last-minute. Importantly, also the terms to implement the arrangements for Northern Ireland, laid down in the withdrawal agreement which entered into force early this year, when the UK legally left the EU, still need to be agreed.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">Northern Ireland is definitely the priority for Joe Biden, who <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54557939" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">has</a> Irish roots, with his ancestors coming from close to the current Northern Irish border, and who’s the first Catholic American President since JFK. Interestingly, his ancestors lived in Carlingford, which just a few miles from the border. It should therefore perhaps not surprise that Biden has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54171571" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">warned</a> that “any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border”.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">A U.S.-U.K. trade deal was always be going to be quite ambitious to achieve, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade-trump-analysis/biden-or-trump-no-guarantee-of-a-post-brexit-u-s-uk-trade-deal-idUSKBN2691N3" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">given</a> the UK public’s wariness to accept openness to U.S. agricultural products – and America’s own protectionist instincts, in this regard – no matter whether Trump or Biden is the American President. Even if also Trump’s trade negotiator has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade-trump-analysis/biden-or-trump-no-guarantee-of-a-post-brexit-u-s-uk-trade-deal-idUSKBN2691N3" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">stressed</a> that putting up a border in Northern Ireland is a “no go”, Biden has been more vocal on it. The mere prospect of a Biden Presidency means there is almost no room for political brinkmanship over the negotiations on how to implement the Northern Irish aspects of the withdrawal agreement. That’s regardless of the fact that his Presidency isn’t legally certain yet or that Trump remains in charge during the final course of EU-UK negotiations this year.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">The question is of course whether, regardless of who is U.S. President, either the UK or the EU would ever risk the Northern Irish peace process for the sake of a discussion over proper border checks, especially given the fact that the main entry points into the EU’s single market are the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp, which both are “leaking like a sieve”, <a href="https://www.gva.be/cnt/dmf20180903_03698558" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">according</a> to Antwerp’s Mayor. It would defy logic to endanger the peace process over problematic control over a border, given the much more serious problems with controlling that border elsewhere.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">Will Boris Johnson ultimately drop the controversial parts of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/nov/09/coronavirus-covid-uk-live-news-updates-keir-starmer-boris-johnson" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">internal market bill</a>, as part of some kind of horse trading exercise with the EU? There is a good case that can be made for this. 30 Conservative MPs already abstained during the second reading in September, meaning we’re <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-urge-boris-johnson-to-listen-to-lords-on-law-breaking-internal-market-bill/" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">not</a> so far from a successful rebellion in case it would swell. Biden’s explicit concern, which he also <a href="https://twitter.com/SamJamesMorgan/status/1326249399719223299" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">voiced</a> in his first phone call with Boris Johnson, may well reduce UK leverage here. Then, on the other hand, it may perhaps also prevent the EU from playing it all too hardball, in the discussion on <a href="https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1326145328916000768" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">whether it should allow</a> some derogations of EU law for the sake of smooth trade between Britain and Northern Ireland, something which was requested jointly by arch rivals Sinn Féin and the DUP – out of concern for food consignments to NI supermarkets -but which has fallen on a cold stone so far in Brussels.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">Joe Biden is certainly less concerned over future EU-UK trade terms than over the effect on Northern Ireland. That’s despite the fact that this may have a bigger influence on any UK-U.S. trade deal. If the U.K. would somehow end up remaining in the EU’s regulatory orbit, granting more U.S. access to the UK market will get harder. Certainly, this is a trade-off the U.K. itself needs to make, and Joe Biden will not preoccupy himself with this.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">What is clear in this regard is that the U.K. isn’t prepared to let go off “sovereignty” when it comes to being able to regulate as it pleases, and any “level playing field” arrangement here will only be acceptable if UK sovereignty is respected, even if this may hurt trade flows, and in a permanent way, unlike the economic damage done by Covid. In this regard, it will be very interesting to see whether the UK will sign up to the <a href="https://capx.co/a-third-way-can-break-the-brexit-governance-impasse/" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">governance</a> aspects also laid down in the EU-Ukraine deal, which retain a major, <a href="https://capx.co/a-third-way-can-break-the-brexit-governance-impasse/" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">indirect</a> role for the EU’s top court to interpret aspects of EU law. Issues of EU law may arise quickly in any disputes over the future terms of EU-UK trade related to goods and services. According to the latest rumours, the UK <a href="https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1326445728517025792" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">would</a> have accepted “dispute settlement” on certain areas. If this is indeed the Ukraine-style arrangement with the big role for the ECJ which the Swiss continue to refuse, this would sort of keep Britain in the EU’s regulatory orbit through the back-door, with all implications for any UK-U.S. trade deal.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">So is Tánaiste Leo Varadkar <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/biden-presidency-could-change-course-of-brexit-talks-says-varadkar-1.4400401" style="background: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f7a800; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none; transition-duration: 0.3s; transition-property: background, box-shadow, border, color, opacity, transform;">right</a> that the prospect of a Biden Presidency is “positive news” for Ireland, also because the “Democrats watched our back on Brexit”? That’s hard to deny, but the Brexit train is very much on the rails, and London was never seriously contemplating not sorting out Northern Ireland as responsibly as possible, so ultimately, it probably won’t matter all that much.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">The backstory to all this is that “Brexit” and “Trump” get conflated all the time; Of course they have in common that they both stem from anti-establishment sentiment, but we should recognize major differences as well. “Trumpism” was never about free trade, even if Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation were free market policies. Brexit on the other hand, was always sold as an opportunity for the UK to open up trade more, which isn’t something that Biden would want to obstruct.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #71757a; font-family: DINNextLTPro-Light, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem;">Will the “special relationship” between the U.K. and the U.S. now suffer? Of course not. Even in its most Brexiteer days, the UK government has always kept channels open with the Democrats and if there’s one priority for a Biden administration, it is to improve America’s diplomatic ties, not worsen them.</p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-1828212714085566012020-11-09T16:29:00.001+01:002020-12-17T16:30:16.814+01:00From Russia to France, politicians discover higher taxes can lead to less tax income<p><i>Published in <a href="http://europeanpost.co/from-russia-to-france-politicians-discover-higher-taxes-can-lead-to-less-tax-income/">The European Post</a></i></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Last month, an illegal cigarette factory was discovered in Brussels. Not less than 170,760 cigarettes and 11.5 tonnes of fine-cut tobacco were </span><a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/brussels-2/137863/belgian-customs-dismantle-illegal-cigarette-factory-in-brussels-molenbeek-saint-jean-federal-public-finance-service-marlboro-europol-european-anti-fraud-office-olaf/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">seized</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> by the authorities, representing 2.2 million euro in excise duties and Value Added Tax. It’s already the third time a similar discovery </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/brussel/douane-ontmantelt-illegale-sigarettenfabriek~a0b88591/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">was made</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"> this year in Belgium. The operation resulted from cooperation with Polish customs, highlighting the trans-border nature of these kind of ventures.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">For organized crime, this is a lucrative business. High taxes on tobacco make it easy for illegal products to outcompete legal alternatives, but the new Belgian government does not seem to be bothered by this. It plans to increase tobacco taxes further and <a href="http://consul-fund.be/vivaldi-van-geen-nieuwe-taksen-naar-veel-nieuwe-taksen/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">hopes</a> to raise an extra 200 million euro with this, ignoring an experience in 2017 <a href="https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20170110_02665871" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">whereby</a> such a tax hike actually resulted in less government income. This is the so-called “Laffer effect”, after economist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve#:~:text=The%20Laffer%20curve%20is%20typically,uncertain%20and%20disputed%20among%20economists." rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Arthur Laffer</a>, an advisor to U.S. President Ronald Reagan, who demonstrated that tax cuts could boost economic growth and tax revenue. For politicians, it’s counter-intuitive that higher taxes result in lower income. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Belgian government is not alone. Also the Russian government is <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/russia-mining-tax/update-3-russia-targets-tobacco-mining-oil-taxes-in-hunt-to-plug-budget-holes-idUSL8N2GD1L7" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">considering</a> to increase excise taxes on cigarettes with 20% next year, hoping to raise an annual 340 billion roubles, in a bid to tackle the budget deficit, resulting from low oil prices and policies like the support for the incumbent government in Belarus, which included a $1.5 billion <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/putin-pledges-a-15-billion-loan-while-meeting-lukashenko-in-sochi/a-54920100" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">loan</a> to Lukashenko. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Also in Russia, the Laffer effect is visible. The share of illegal products in the Russian tobacco market was <a href="https://www.stopillegal.com/blog/detail/russia-s-anti-illicit-legislation-shows-signs-of-success-q-a-with-alexander-mironenko#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20available,dollars)%20in%20lost%20tax%20revenues" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">estimated</a> at 15.6 percent, according to the latest data for 2019, which is up quite dramatically, from around 1% before 2015 and is running in parallel with increased tobacco taxes. Revenue lost to illicit trade went from only half a billion rubles in 2012 to around 50 billion rubles in 2018, which is a 100-times increase. This year, the Russian government is projected to miss out on 100 billion rubles in lost tax revenues as a result. Increasing cigarettes taxes even more is bound to continue the dynamic of an ever bigger illicit market, with ever more lost tax revenue and consumers witnessing ever higher prices. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">However, it’s not just in the tobacco markets of either Western or Eastern Europe that we can witness the Laffer effect. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If you thought taxes were high in Sweden, you should visit Norway. The Covid crisis has revealed that Norway’s government is losing out on a whopping 350 million euro per year due to its high consumption taxes. Those drive people to go shop in Sweden, which was suddenly no longer possible, due to Covid travel restrictions. The <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/the-coronavirus-crisis-could-result-in-a-tax-climbdown-in-norway-12084529" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">estimate</a> was made by consultancy firm Menon Economics, who think that Norwegian retailers would enjoy extra sales of 1.1bn euro and that 8,200 jobs would be create in the absence of the punitively high consumption taxes. The question is whether the Norwegian Treasury will bear this in mind.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">At least, Sweden did learn this lesson from yet another experience, when a left-leaning Swedish government decided to abolish both inheritance and gift taxation, a decision taken <a href="https://qz.com/1132857/republican-tax-plan-2017-repealing-the-estate-tax-has-a-swedish-precedent/#:~:text=The%20Scandinavian%20country%20first%20introduced,then%20had%20fallen%20to%2030%25." rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">unanimously</a> by the Swedish Parliament, back in 2004. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This was a smart move, as it helped to attract entrepreneurs and investment capital back to the country, generating higher economic growth and therefore higher tax revenues. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What followed was a pretty spectacular example of the “Laffer effect”. A study for the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise <a href="https://www.svensktnaringsliv.se/bilder_och_dokument/inheritance-taxpdf_1104365.html/BINARY/Inheritance%20tax.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">notes</a>that as a result, Sweden’s tax ratio declined from 51 percent of GDP in 2000 to 44 percent in 2014, while the government’s tax income increased by SEK 260 billion. It must be noted that abolishing the “death tax” was only part of an overall policy shift, which also included scrapping wealth taxation. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Another example of governments wrongly assuming the tax base to be of a fixed nature could be <a href="https://www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/490910/opbrengst-oldtimerbelasting-valt-tegen" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">witnessed</a> in the Netherlands in 2014, when the government imposed a new tax on “classic cars”. One thing it had not foreseen was that owners of classic cars would decide to export or no longer register their car. As a result, the government did not even raise one third of the money it had hoped for: 35 <a href="https://www.autoweek.nl/autonieuws/artikel/oldtimertaks-levert-veel-minder-op-dan-begroot/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">instead</a> of 120 million euro. Classic cars entrepreneur Eric Breed <a href="https://fd.nl/economie-politiek/1104134/er-is-meer-kapot-gemaakt-dan-gewonnen" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">tells</a> a Dutch newspaper that the government “has more destroyed than it has gained”, as “people have ended up on the unemployment payroll”, pointing at a number of businesses that failed as a result of the measure.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Even France, notorious for its leftwing economic policy consensus, has learned about the Laffer effect. In 1989, it re-imposed a solidarity tax on wealth, the “impôt de solidarité sur la fortune” or “ISF”, which had originally been the idea of French President François Mitterrand, when he was elected in 1981 on a hard-left programme. Even if reality forced him to moderate, this particular tax survived, before it was abolished in 1986 by Prime Minister Jacques Chirac, and again re-established in 1988, following Mitterrand’s re-election. In a 2008 report for the French Senate, French Senator Philippe Marini <a href="https://www.lefigaro.fr/impots/2008/05/20/05003-20080520ARTFIG00236-isf-milliards-d-euros-delocalises-en-.php" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">estimated</a> that hundreds of wealthy French had left the country every year as a result of the tax, depriving France of considerable tax revenue, taking up 2.8 billion euro with them in a given year. He <a href="https://www.moneyvox.fr/actu/2332/843-contribuables-assujettis-a-isf-ont-quitte-la-france-en-2006" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">commented</a>: “We need people here to invest, create jobs, wealth and ultimately also pay taxes”. It all led to current French President Emmanuel Macron abolishing the tax in 2018. With Covid, many governments across the world are struggling with budget deficits. If even French politicians can come to the conclusion that excessive taxation ultimately hurts the public purse, surely everyone can. </p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-69247826219582154152020-10-27T16:30:00.001+01:002020-12-17T16:31:10.873+01:00Is change on the way in Georgia?<p><i>Published in <a href="http://europeanpost.co/is-change-on-the-way-in-georgia/" target="_blank">The European Post</a></i></p><p><strong style="border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">On October 31th, </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgian_parliamentary_election" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Parliamentary elections</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> are coming up in Georgia, with the ruling “Georgian Dream” party, founded in 2012 by oligarch </strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bidzina_Ivanishvili" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bidzina Ivanishvili</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">, </strong><a href="https://eurasianet.org/new-wave-of-covid-complicates-georgian-ruling-partys-election-strategy" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">trying</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> to </strong><a href="https://eurasianet.org/new-wave-of-covid-complicates-georgian-ruling-partys-election-strategy" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><strong style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">hold</strong></a><strong style="border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> on to power, something made less certain due to the Covid crisis. The country really is at a cross-roads, having lost some of its luster as a world-class champion of democratic and economic reform. A recent decision to block a foreign investment into upgrading its internet connection may now not only erode its competitiveness, but also hurt relations with the EU, as it may violate the EU-Georgia Association Agreement. </strong></p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Once belonging to the Soviet Union, Georgia went through a successful transition, achieving <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/georgia/gdp-growth-annual#:~:text=GDP%20Annual%20Growth%20Rate%20in,the%20second%20quarter%20of%202009." rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">massive</a> economic growth during the last fifteen years, following a series of <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/man-remade-georgia" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">free market</a> <a href="https://voxukraine.org/en/tax-reform-in-georgia-lessons-for-ukraine-en/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">reforms</a>, introduced by Economy Minister <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakha_Bendukidze" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Kakha Bendukidze</a> from 2004 on, which included tax cuts, slashing customs tariffs as well as scrapping almost 800 government licenses and permits, while at the same time refusing development aid. An interesting side effect was enormous success in the fight against <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Georgia" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">corruption</a>, with Transparency International (TI) even <a href="https://www.economist.com/eastern-approaches/2012/02/07/lessons-from-georgias-fight-against-graft" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">dubbing</a> Georgia “the best corruption-buster in the world”, as previously, virtually any government transaction <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/03/how-georgia-stamped-out-corruption-on-campus/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">required</a> some kind of bribe. The free market reforms meant there were less government permits, so there simply were also fewer opportunities for corruption.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Since Russia’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War#:~:text=The%20Russo%2DGeorgian%20War%20was,republics%20of%20the%20Soviet%20Union." rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">invasion</a> of Georgia in 2008, the first signs of backsliding became apparent, and later, constitutional restrictions on expansive fiscal policy were removed. In its evaluation report in 2016, the Council of Europe <a href="https://rm.coe.int/CoERMPublicCommonSearchServices/DisplayDCTMContent?documentId=09000016806dc116" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">noted</a> that despite all the progress, “a ‘clientelist system’ has emerged where the country’s leadership ‘allocates resources in order to generate the loyalty and support it needs to stay in power’.”</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Georgian_parliamentary_election" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">2012</a> witnessed the electoral defeat of Mikheil Saakashvili, who had been succeeding Soviet creature Eduard Shevardnadze after the Rose revolution, and should be credited for delivering many of the free market reforms that he since has also tried to introduce in Ukraine, before he fell out badly with the current leadership of Georgia.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A series of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932020_Georgian_protests" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">mass anti-government protests</a>, which enjoyed EU and U.S. support, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20191118-us-eu-back-georgia-protesters-after-thousands-rally-outside-parliament" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">took place</a> last year, resulting in Georgia’s ruling party <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/eastern-europe/opinion/electoral-reform-the-good-news-we-missed-from-georgia/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">agreeing</a> to electoral reform that should empower the opposition. Nevertheless, the new system would still benefit the strongman behind the scenes, Bidzina Ivanishvili, at least according to Georgian law professor Davit Zedelashvili, who <a href="http://constitutionnet.org/news/georgias-battle-electoral-rules-and-pivot-towards-proportional-representation" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">calls</a> Georgia an “illiberal regime”, noting that “Georgian Dream used its dominance to push through unilateral constitutional reforms in October 2017”, which were the subject of “scathing criticism by the Venice Commission”.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Furthermore, human rights groups have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-politics-protests-idUSKBN1YG1ZT" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">slammed</a> the government over a lack of progress on judicial reform and for putting <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-journalists-safety-attacks-tv-crews/30867991.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">pressure</a> on independent media. Georgian opposition MP Giorgi Kandelaki even <a href="https://twitter.com/kandelakigiorgi/status/1227108110730452992" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">spoke</a> of a “point of no return”, after the leader of one of the opposition parties, Gigi Ugulava, a former mayor of Tbilisi, the capital, was <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/georgia-opposition-leader-gigi-ugulava-slams-his-sentence-for-graft/a-52330476" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">jailed</a> for three years, in February, on what he considers to be a politicised judicial action. The erection of <a href="https://twitter.com/RJukneviciene/status/1299253742894710786" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">new statues</a> of murderous Soviet dictator <a href="https://www.neweurope.eu/article/stalin-statues-in-georgia-insult-his-victims/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Joseph Stalin</a>, who grew up in Georgia, should perhaps serve as the writing on the wall.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A recent state <a href="https://globalarbitrationreview.com/azerbaijani-investor-claim-against-georgia" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">decision</a> provides more evidence that Georgia’s free market reforms, which were so instrumental to fighting corruption and embedding democracy, may be under threat.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What happened? NEQSOL Holding, from neighbouring Azerbaijan, was <a href="https://globalarbitrationreview.com/azerbaijani-investor-claim-against-georgia" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">all but</a> expropriated by Georgia’s government after attempting to purchase <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasus_Online" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Caucasus Online</a>, Georgia’s largest internet service provider and the sole owner a 1,200-km submarine fiber-optic <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110607105303/http:/www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=17078" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">cable</a>, which transits Internet traffic from Europe to the Caucasus. After first having approved the transaction, the Georgian government pushed through legislation allowing it to appoint an external manager to the company.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This does not only impact Georgia or the investor. Writing about the issue, <a href="https://as.nyu.edu/faculty/ido-aharoni.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Ido Aharoni</a>, a Professor in international relations at NYU, <a href="https://www.newsmax.com/idoaharoni/broadband-covid-penetration-usage/2020/10/17/id/992437/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">explains</a> how this undermines the project to interconnect the shaky Caucasian region through a digital highway. He notes NEQSOL intended to upgrade the existing fiber optic network in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, “to bring faster internet to millions through the building of submarine cables connecting Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia” and could “transform [Georgia] into a regional mega-hub for digital commerce”.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As also Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan would be connected, he <a href="https://www.newsmax.com/idoaharoni/broadband-covid-penetration-usage/2020/10/17/id/992437/" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">points</a> out that this would “provide better internet and faster connection speeds to former Soviet countries, for the first time bypassing Russia and ultimately decoupling Georgia from the Kremlin’s influence.”</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">These kind of considerations, once reserved to the energy realm, now come into play for internet connectivity.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A cumbersome arbitration process has now started in Georgia to resolve the issue. Interestingly, this may reveal a violation of the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/georgia/#:~:text=The%20EU%20and%20Georgia%20signed,Free%20Trade%20Area%20(DCFTA).&text=Georgia%20has%20been%20a%20member%20of%20the%20World%20Trade%20Organisation%20since%202000." rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">EU-Georgia Association Agreement</a>.</p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This because the EU-Georgia deal contains <a href="https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/association_agreement.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="border: 0px; color: #3366ff; font: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 0.2s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">provisions</a> protecting investors, including an obligation “to avoid unnecessary or discriminatory burdens on economic operators” and to facilitate “trade and investment”, in particular by removing “non-tariff barriers”. Other grounds that could be invoked include the commitment for “regulatory authorities” to be “impartial” and “transparent”, which may be an issue here, given the sudden u-turn made by Georgia’s authorities. The Agreement also contains a whole chapter dedicated to opening up electronic communication services and a number of restrictions on establishing state monopolies. </p><p style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #303030; font-family: Lato, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 25px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">If Georgia would not comply with the EU-Georgia association agreement, this would mean another step in the wrong direction, with negative implications for the whole region. Perhaps a surprise loss of the governing Georgian Dream party may alter the balance.</p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-3130497236418431482020-10-23T13:43:00.001+02:002020-12-08T13:44:57.692+01:00A ‘third way’ can break the Brexit governance impasse<p><i>Jointly written with Michael-James Clifton, published on <a href="https://capx.co/a-third-way-can-break-the-brexit-governance-impasse/">CapX</a></i></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">As the Brexit negotiations near their conclusion, a key element </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1319555313037705218" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">still to be decided</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">is what happens in future disputes between the two sides. This is known as ‘governance’ – and it will be far more important in determining the shape of the new UK-EU relationship than arguments over fishing rights.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Broadly, there are three options.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">The minimal governance option</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The first is to have minimal governance, without an arbiter or secretariat monitoring the implementation of treaty arrangements, which is the case for the current EU-Swiss relationship. This one is an obvious non-starter. While over-governed agreements are bureaucratic and expensive to run, under-governed ones are slow to resolve disputes and lead to a real lack of certainty for business. Indeed, that’s precisely why the EU and Switzerland have made so little progress on opening up their trade since the 1990s, when their deals were agreed.</p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">A bilateral framework?</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The second option is to agree governance through a bilateral framework. This is currently the preferred option for the British government, which wants future arrangements to reflect its view of the UK and EU as “sovereign equals”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">. However, there are a number of ways this could be done. T</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">he EU </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1314221807210319872&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNGBQjEaWG1hrloRfxGPv8HV5-oRUg" href="https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1314221807210319872" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">reportedly</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> wants a “robust” dispute mechanism allowing for swift legal action, which would include suspending chunks of the whole deal. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This reflects the EU’s desire to protect what it calls the “autonomy of the EU legal order”.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It’s the EU’s top court, the European Court of Justice, which determines what is understood by ‘autonomy’, and its judgments set the limit as to what Brussels can agree. It would be very hard for EU negotiators to agree to any arrangement whereby UK courts would be trusted to interpret aspects of EU law, as this would probably be struck down by the judges in Luxembourg.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">To know what kind of governance arrangement the EU will want to agree with the UK, we need only look at its recent negotiations with Switzerland. Here, Brussels proposed the same kind of governance that oversees its agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, with an ‘arbitral tribunal’ </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">obliged to defer to the European Court of Justice if EU law or treaty law based on EU law is ‘implied’. Bear in mind that this is not like traditional international arbitration, as it would require Switzerland to submit itself to the ECJ, making its courts even less sovereign</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> than the judiciaries of EU member states.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Unsurprisingly, that proposal has attracted fierce criticism in Switzerland, including from <a href="https://www.parlament.ch/centers/documents/de/rechtsgutachten-professor-carl-baudenbacher.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Prof Carl Baudenbacher</a>, the former president of the EFTA Court who considered that it did “not represent any improvement” in terms of sovereignty compared to the “pure ECJ model” rejected by the Swiss government in 2017. <span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Former Swiss president Johann Schneider-Ammann <a href="https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/nach-schneider-ammanns-angriff-auf-die-eu-politik-des-bundesrats-aeussern-auch-fdp-exponenten-bedenken-ld.1577564?reduced=true" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">warned last month</a> that it “endangers Switzerland’s sovereignty”. And just a few weeks ago the country’s trade unions and employer federations issued a joint letter describing the EU’s proposed framework as <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/sozialpartner-winken-ab-das-rahmenabkommen-mit-der-eu-ist-klinisch-tot&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNFlkhNbUHVUmIwfHdtN3YexhxOcdA" href="https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/sozialpartner-winken-ab-das-rahmenabkommen-mit-der-eu-ist-klinisch-tot" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">“clinically dead</a>”.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It’s therefore hard to see how a similar ‘Ukraine-style’ arbitration arrangement could ever be reconciled with the UK’s desire to<i style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </i>“run [its] own affairs”, as UK negotiator Lord Frost <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://reaction.life/david-frost-speech-in-full-britains-brexit-position/&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNEOBvbnN5S6cviWUeoav0FECqH5cg" href="https://reaction.life/david-frost-speech-in-full-britains-brexit-position/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">put it</a> to a Brussels audience in February. Nonetheless, a ‘Ukraine-style’ arbitral tribunal is <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://cleppe0.blogspot.com/2019/10/an-overview-of-wins-for-both-eu-and-uk.html&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNH0bvu1O-Sm0beTyr9jTLx13EEwOQ" href="https://cleppe0.blogspot.com/2019/10/an-overview-of-wins-for-both-eu-and-uk.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">provided for</a> in both the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid%3D1580206007232%26uri%3DCELEX%253A12019W/TXT%252802%2529&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNFRjXMnsikgHa98kppLEiggTvVd_A" href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1580206007232&uri=CELEX%3A12019W/TXT%2802%29" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Withdrawal Agreement</a>, and the non-binding <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_political_declaration.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNHOv5wkvpdNsSBQIq5fEW2gdwLexg" href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_political_declaration.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Political Declaration</a>.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Let’s keep in mind that it’s not even in the gift of the EU to offer something akin to a traditional arbitration arrangement – whereby each side nominates arbitrators to a panel whose decision is binding on both – as this would be very likely to violate the EU Treaties, according to the ECJ.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Either way, the time to find a solution is running out as the clock ticks down to the New Year’s Eve deadline.</p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">The ‘docking’ option</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">That’s why the UK should reconsider a <b style="box-sizing: border-box;">third option</b>, which would respect both the ‘autonomy of the EU legal order’ and the UK’s sovereignty.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This would be a ‘multilateral’ approach, with the UK ‘ docking’ to the EFTA Court and </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">the EFTA Surveillance Authority. ‘Docking’ provides <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/10/13/uks-future-relationship-with-the-eu-should-be-multilateral-including-efta-states/&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNGQO1b_d8oIlGgnOGEVO3qyE55mvw" href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/10/13/uks-future-relationship-with-the-eu-should-be-multilateral-including-efta-states/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">multilateral governance for a bilateral agreement</a>. Essentially, the EFTA Surveillance Authority and the EFTA Court would monitor compliance with the UK-EU agreements, and act as a judicial forum to resolve disputes. As a country that is ‘docking’ it would nominate a College Member to the Surveillance Authority as well as EFTA Court Judges.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It would not necessarily mean the UK joining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which comprises Iceland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. T<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">he EFTA Court and the EFTA Surveillance Authority serve as ‘governance’ institutions for the three EFTA countries that are also a member of the single market or European Economic Area (EEA) – Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Broadly speaking, where there are difficulties in applying European law in the EU, this is addressed by the European Commission and the ECJ. Whereas where there are difficulties in applying European law in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, this is addressed by the EFTA Surveillance Authority and the EFTA Court. Each side of the agreement basically has its own multilateral institutions. Mutual trust is further strengthened by a variety of administrative practices and legal principles and – last but not least – by a judicial dialogue between the EFTA Court and the ECJ.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What’s more, the role of the EFTA Court interpreting European law has been signed off by the ECJ in the past. EU negotiator Michel Barnier has also <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/governance.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNEzOlWp9nII9xwiu8gWxSZwVQysow" href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/governance.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">raised docking</a> as an option for the UK in one of his “slides”, while the EU has proposed it to Switzerland in the past, so the EU side should be fine with it.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The problems arise on the UK side.<span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> In <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/eu-justice-subcommittee/brexit-enforcement-and-dispute-resolution/oral/81056.html&source=gmail&ust=1603518625000000&usg=AFQjCNE5_LkMFry_-Tm68f00FHjKWbZMhQ" href="http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/eu-justice-subcommittee/brexit-enforcement-and-dispute-resolution/oral/81056.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">March 2018</a>, Suella Braverman, then Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at DExEU, stated that “the UK Government are not in favour of docking with the EFTA Court, to put it simply and directly”.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It’s worth looking at her key arguments,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> which in our view should be reconsidered.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">First, Braverman suggested that the EFTA Court’s decisions “do not legally bind the EU, and decisions between the EFTA states and the EU are not resolved by the EFTA Court”. Yet we need only look at the seminal </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://eftacourt.int/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/16_11_PR_EN1.pdf&source=gmail&ust=1603518625001000&usg=AFQjCNEpw-OieeZXP7igCuk5_lvd2U2yXA" href="https://eftacourt.int/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/16_11_PR_EN1.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Icesave case</a> – concerning whether the Icelandic government had to guarantee savings in a defunct bank – for an example of an EFTA Court decision going against the European Commission. It’s a good example of where a non-EU court was trusted by the ECJ to settle a dispute on European law which had serious financial consequences for EU member states.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Of course, the ECJ’s trust will only remain to the extent the EFTA Court does not violate that mutual trust. In that regard, Braverman also argued against “docking” with the EFTA Surveillance Authority and EFTA Court because they are required to “pay due account to the ECJ”. Yet, if these non-EU institutions are trusted to govern the EU-UK deal – as they are to interpret other European law – it makes sense for them to do so in a manner that is compatible with the ECJ.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This is not about the UK submitting itself to aspects of EU law. Rather, it’s about ensuring that in areas where the UK agrees to follow European law there aren’t contradictory interpretations. Say the UK wanted to follow EU chemical rules in order to maintain access to the EU chemicals market, it surely wouldn’t want uncertainty about the interpretation of such complex technical regulations.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">A ‘fax democracy’?</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Opponents may point out that we risk ending up </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">a “<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.economist.com/europe/2004/10/07/the-norwegian-option&source=gmail&ust=1603518625001000&usg=AFQjCNEHdu_ZYb79OwnxKLB8OwVz4NJRMA" href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2004/10/07/the-norwegian-option" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">fax democracy</a>” like Norway – obliged to adhere to EU rules without getting to vote on them. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This would also miss the point. Norway’s position arises from being an EEA member, whereas the UK would not need to join the EEA if it ‘docked’ in the way we’ve set out.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">As <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-2230.12483&source=gmail&ust=1603518625001000&usg=AFQjCNHS3k1RDYAtnY3ced1PnAPYndGlyg" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-2230.12483" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #777a7f; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; text-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.004) 1px 1px 1px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Dr Elizabeth Howell</a> has argued in an extensive paper, under the ‘docking’ scenario the UK “would also not have to adopt the full EEA acquis”. The UK may agree to adopt only very small parts of European law or even none at all, but the EFTA Court and EFTA Surveillance Authority could still be tasked with governing the EU-UK deal – and all in a way that meets the ECJ’s concern for the “autonomy of the EU legal order”.</span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><p class="selectionShareable" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #181c1e; font-family: merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sooner rather than later the consequences of a ‘Ukraine-style’ arbitral tribunal will become apparent. Alternatives need to be considered. What could be better than the ‘governance’ solution based on the one has worked well for three non-EU member states in their relationship with the EU for the past 25 years, has been cleared by the European Court of Justice, suggested by the EU as an option, and would leave UK sovereignty intact?</span></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-91009665026458076912020-10-05T19:22:00.001+02:002020-10-12T19:24:31.951+02:00My analysis in The Times of Trump's economic programme<p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt;">Published by <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/static/who-would-boost-economy-trump-biden-analysis-debate-markets/" target="_blank">The Times</a></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt;">If Joe Biden becomes president, he has said he will
increase corporate taxes from 21% to 28% </span><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-trumps-tax-cuts-day-one-presidency-economy-2020-9?r=US&IR=T" style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">on “day one”</span></a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt;"> of his
administration, </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Cuts_and_Jobs_Act_of_2017#:~:text=The%20corporate%20tax%20rate%20was,respect%20to%20corporate%20income%20tax." target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">largely</span></a> undoing
Trump’s corporate tax cuts</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt;">. </span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Is that going to deliver innovation, growth and
dynamism? That looks, talks and barks like a tax-hike to me – and it is
something the hard-pressed US economy does not need.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Democratic challenger <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/31/joe-bidens-claim-that-he-wont-raise-taxes-people-making-less-than-400000/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">denies</span></a> that
middle-class incomes <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">would</span> be
hit by these tax increases. But quite a few independent <a href="https://www.atr.org/bidens-corporate-tax-rate-hike-will-hurt-small-and-midsize-local-businesses" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">studies</span></a> have
contradicted that.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In contrast, Trump has <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/president-trump-tax-plan-2020/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">pledged</span></a> more tax cuts. Also his </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">business-friendly regulatory approach<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">, which he’s likely to continue,</span> is
part of the reason why US tech stocks – America’s big success story – have
grown so much <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">during his first
term.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As well as higher taxes, Biden would bring <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fa185e75-03ab-4d78-a27c-f836067d3a8e" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">in greater labour regulation</span></a> for
the gig economy. Simply speaking, if you restrict how the Ubers and Airbnbs of
this world operate, then that is going to act as a clamp on their profits and,
ultimately, stock-market growth.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It’s obvious that Trump has an obsession and
fascination with the stock market. It certainly would be embarrassing for him
if it crashes but, for now, I believe the President can take some credit for
the way it has grown under his administration.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The surge has not been a flash in the pan that has
come over a period of a few months. It’s been a consistent bull market in
stocks.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Federal Reserve’s move to keep interest rates low, <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">and its loose monetary policies</span> has
of course benefited stocks. But you could argue the same stimulus, if not more,
has occurred in Europe and the stock indices over here compare poorly in many
respects with those in the US.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Trump's handling of the pandemic has come in for
fierce criticism but I don't think that the US has done particularly worse than
European countries when you <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">compare</span></a> excess deaths.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Lots of countries which have imposed strict lockdowns
– and are now experiencing second waves of Covid-19 – have been quick to pour
scorn on Trump’s desire to open up the country.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But let’s face it, it’s been proven that you can fight
the virus without <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">an economically
damaging lockdown</span> and also take the disease very seriously like
some Asian countries have done. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I must qualify that I don’t support everything Trump
has done to help the US economy. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Apart from his <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">wild</span></a> spending</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, the trade wars have been careless <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">and <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/how-donald-trump-broke-us-trade-policy" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">damaging</span></a> </span>to
say the least – but we have learned that he mainly barks and very rarely bites.
The trade <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/10/3/17930092/usmca-mexico-nafta-trump-trade-deal-explained" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">deal</span></a> he pushed
through with Mexico <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">and Canada</span> was
very similar to the one that it replaced.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m not a fan of how he's <a href="https://www.cato.org/publications/testimony/maintaining-judicial-independence-rule-law-examining-causes-consequences" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">challenged</span></a> <a href="https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3601&context=faculty_scholarship" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">the</span></a> rule of law and
critical of central bank independence too.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So I am saying, with some reservation, that Trump will
boost the economy more than Biden.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">You cannot discount what his tax cuts have done for
the economy. The rich bear a huge amount of taxes in each country and it is
true that tax cuts will disproportionately benefit them.<span class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083gmail-apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But if you do give tax cuts <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">that inevitably always benefit big tax payers</span>,
it will <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">also benefit</span> the SMEs and
the mom and pop stores.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="yiv7408866969ydpc076bcf3yiv6746001083msonormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-attachment: initial; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That is money which goes into the pockets of the
middle classes who, Trump hopes, will power America’s economy in his second
term.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-18501056123503943342020-10-02T19:40:00.001+02:002020-10-12T19:41:31.881+02:00Vijf redenen om tegen Vivaldi te zijn<p>Gepubliceerd op <a href="https://doorbraak.be/vijf-redenen-om-tegen-vivaldi-te-zijn/" target="_blank">Doorbraak</a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Vijf redenen om tegen Vivaldi te zijn<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">21 maanden na het uiteenvallen van de
“Zweedse” coalitie heeft België opnieuw een volwaardige federale regering. Er
is al veel gezegd over het </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Belgian_federal_election"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">ontbreken</span></a><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> van de twee grootste partijen, alsook het ontberen van een
meerderheid van Kamerleden uit het landsdeel met de meerderheid van de
bevolking, dat ook disproportioneel bijdraagt aan de inkomsten van de overheid
en de economische welvaart. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Fundamenteel zijn er inhoudelijk
echter ook zware tekortkomingen aan het regeerakkoord van de zogenaamde
“Vivaldi”-coalitie. Hieronder lijst ik vijf zaken op die problematisch zijn in
het licht van een economisch verantwoord beleid. <br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: white;">1.
Sluiten van afbetaalde, niet CO2-uitstotende kerncentrales om ze te vervangen
door gesubsidieerde CO2-uitstotende gascentrales.</span></b><span style="background: white;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">De nieuwe regering </span><a href="http://newsroom.roularta.be/static/30092020/regeerakkoord.pdf?_ga=2.218956895.792354171.1601464137-1456588048.1595851349"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">kiest</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
“resoluut voor de herbevestiging van de kernuitstap” tegen 2025, ook al betekent
dit dat afbetaalde, niet CO2-uitstotende kerncentrales zouden moeten worden
vervangen door zwaar gesubsidieerde CO2-uitstotende gascentrales. Over die
subsidies moet de Europese Unie zich nog uitspreken, wat één van de redenen
lijkt dat één van de mogelijke investeerders in zo’n gascentrales </span><a href="https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-energie/getalm-met-kernuitstap-doet-investeerder-afhaken/10254843.html"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">niet langer interesse</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> heeft. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">De voornaamste reden
daarvoor is echter dat er in het regeerakkoord tegelijk wordt vermeld dat er “eind
november 2021” een rapport komt dat<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“de
bevoorradingszekerheid en de impact op de elektriciteitsprijzen” onderzoekt. Algemeen
wordt dus verwacht dat dit het excuus wordt om de kerncentrales alsnog open te
houden, zeker gezien het zo lang duurt om </span><a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/09/29/bouw-nieuwe-gevangenis-van-dendermonde-eindelijk-gestart/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">wat dan ook</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> maar te bouwen in België, maar dat kan wel eens buiten
uitbater Engie Electrabel gerekend zijn, die al meermaals aandrong op een zo snel
mogelijke beslissing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In april 2020
stelde het bedrijf dat het voor eind dit jaar een beslissing wil over het
langer openhouden van twee kerncentrales. Een woordvoerder </span><a href="https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/04/16/engie-electrabel-vraagt-nogmaals-om-kerncentrales-langer-open-te/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">waarschuwde</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> toen: “We moeten daarvoor de nodige investeringen doen, en
daar moeten we snel aan beginnen. Anders is het voor ons niet haalbaar”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Het is dan ook geen
toeval dat Febeliec, de federatie van grote stroomverbruikende ondernemingen, nu
het uitstel over een beslissing van de kernuitstap “het slechtst mogelijke
scenario” </span><a href="https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-energie/getalm-met-kernuitstap-doet-investeerder-afhaken/10254843.html"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">noemt</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. Dan
hebben we het nog niet gehad over het sociaal bloedbad dat een door de wet
afgedwongen kernuitstap met zich </span><a href="https://www.knack.be/nieuws/belgie/energiespecialist-damien-ernst-de-kernuitstap-wordt-een-sociaal-bloedbad/article-normal-1647137.html"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">meebrengt</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">,
met name in de streek rond Tihange, waar een 3.000 jobs verloren zouden gaan.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Het behoeft geen betoog
dat hoe langer de beslissing op zich laat wachten, hoe zwakker ons land komt te
staan in onderhandelingen over de invoer van energie. Men zou denken dat de
Covid-crisis en de exportbeperkingen van medisch materiaal hier een les hadden
kunnen zijn.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">De bevolking kan
alleen onthutst toekijken naar een dergelijke onverantwoordelijke aanpak van
een cruciaal aspect van onze economie. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2. Meer uitgeven ondanks geldtekort <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Reed voor de
Covid-crisis zat België al in zwaar budgettair weer, en met de 10 miljard extra
uitgaven en zware economische recessie </span><a href="https://trends.knack.be/economie/een-meerwaardebelasting-of-extra-taksen-zijn-het-verkeerde-recept-voor-de-relance/article-opinion-1633177.html"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">werd</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> het
er dus niet bepaald beter op. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Niettemin zijn de
Vivaldi-partijen nu van plan om de uitgaven zo maar even nog te verhogen, onder
de noemer “nieuw beleid”. Politicoloog Dave Sinardet </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/politicoloog-dave-sinardet-over-het-regeerakkoord-en-de-nieuwe-eerste-minister-er-wacht-de-croo-een-moeilijke-taak-om-regering-bij-elkaar-te-houden~a1bd8aaf/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">legt uit</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">:
“Men is er toch in geslaagd om heel wat uitgaven te beperken en een aantal
extra inkomsten te vinden, waardoor men maar drie miljard euro wil uitgeven aan
nieuw beleid, in plaats van 10 à 11 miljard waarvan eerst sprake”. Met andere
woorden: men was van plan om een extra Ferrari te kopen, maar omdat de
deurwaardersfacturen zich maar blijven opstapelen, houdt men het toch maar bij
een nieuwe Porsche. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">VOKA-hoofdeconoom
Bart Van Craeynest maakt duidelijk hoe de begrotingsplannen van Vivaldi
rammelen aan alle kanten. Hij </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Bvancraeynest/status/1311320356653805568"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">stelt</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">:
“Het budgettaire plaatje [van] Vivaldi blijft onduidelijk: tegen 2024 wil ze op
zoek naar 2,3% bbp (1,4% budgettaire inspanning + 0,9% nieuw beleid), of 11
miljard, maar [er is] geen concrete indicatie van waar dat geld moet komen (en we
blijven sowieso zitten met een te groot tekort)”. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Enkele uren nadat het
akkoord bekend was, ontstond er al onduidelijkheid over het “1500 euro netto
minimumpensioen”, waarbij Open VLD en sp.a elkaar </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Stijn_Baert/status/1311378308760731649"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">tegenspraken</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. Inkomstenbronnen zoals “strijd tegen sociale en fiscale
fraude” en “terugverdieneffecten” </span><a href="https://twitter.com/DeMolJohan/status/1311532597256781824"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">worden genoemd</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> om de putten te vullen, terwijl besparingen of
privatiseringen met een vergrootglas te zoeken of helemaal afwezig zijn. Meer dan
een derde van de inspanning vormen ze </span><a href="https://twitter.com/DKillemaes/status/1311265388475412481"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">alvast niet</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. Dat kan dus enkel betekenen dat er </span><a href="https://trends.knack.be/economie/een-meerwaardebelasting-of-extra-taksen-zijn-het-verkeerde-recept-voor-de-relance/article-opinion-1633177.html"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">nog hogere belastingen</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> komen of dat men de overheidsschuld eenvoudigweg nog hoger
laat oplopen, </span><a href="https://doorbraak.be/belgie-na-corona-staatshervorming/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">in de hoop dat</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> de Europese Centrale Bank er in slaagt om de rente
kunstmatig laag te houden, ten koste van spaarders. In elk geval dreigt de
actieve bevolking de rekening van dit alles te betalen. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span><a href="https://twitter.com/Bvancraeynest/status/1311320356653805568" target="_blank"></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: #222222;"><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: white;">3. “1500
euro minimumpensioen”: Een jaarlijkse transfer van 2 miljard euro naar de leeftijdsgroep
met de laagste armoedegraad</span></b><span style="background: white;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Een groot deel van
het zogenaamde “nieuw beleid” bestaat uit </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/topeconomen-zien-vooral-gemiste-kansen-in-regeerakkoord-dit-is-zoals-bij-paars-destijds-veel-centen-uitdelen-is-het-bindmiddel~abb1ae63/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">jaarlijks</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> 2
miljard euro meeruitgaven om mensen een 1500 euro netto minimumpensioen te
geven. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Professor Ive Marx,
één van de meest vooraanstaande experten ter zake, </span><a href="https://twitter.com/IveMarx/status/1308652996226678785"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">merkt hierover op</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> dat dit “vermoedelijk meer met een electorale dan wel een
sociale agenda te maken. [Een] deugdelijk minimumpensioen [is] belangrijk, maar
[de] meest urgende sociale noden liggen vooral elders”, waarbij hij aangeeft
hoe de 65-plussers de laagste armoedegraad van alle leeftijdsgroepen kennen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Hier gaat het eigenlijk
om een transfer van de actieven naar de niet-actieven, ook al worden er wel een
paar correcties aangebracht. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Econoom Geert Noels </span><a href="https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/topeconomen-zien-vooral-gemiste-kansen-in-regeerakkoord-dit-is-zoals-bij-paars-destijds-veel-centen-uitdelen-is-het-bindmiddel~abb1ae63/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">merkt bovendien op</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> hoe gevestigde belangen hierbij worden ontzien: "Dat ze
wat doen aan de pensioenen, daar kan ik inkomen. (...) Het logische gevolg zou
zijn dat je de hoogste pensioenen aftopt om de halter in evenwicht te brengen,
maar dat gebeurt niet."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: white;">4. "Geen
nieuwe belastingen" blijkt “wel degelijk nieuwe belastingen”<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Een duidelijke
uitzondering op het voornemen uit het regeerakkoord om "geen nieuwe
belastingen" te heffen </span><a href="http://newsroom.roularta.be/static/30092020/regeerakkoord.pdf?_ga=2.218956895.792354171.1601464137-1456588048.1595851349"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">blijkt</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
vooreerst uit de zinsnede "behalve in het kader van de budgettaire
discussie waarbij de afgesproken evenwichten gerespecteerd worden (inkomsten,
uitgaven & diversen) en met respect voor mensen die werken, ondernemen en
sparen". <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Zowel PS-voorzitter </span><a href="https://twitter.com/SanderLoones/status/1311590895796604928"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Paul Magnette</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> als zijn vrienden van </span><a href="https://twitter.com/WoutPatyn/status/1311595496448892928"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ecolo</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
maakten nadien duidelijk dat – althans volgens hen – dit absoluut wel degelijk
een “vermogenstaksatie” inhoudt. Gespaard vermogen, waar dus al belastingen op
zijn betaald, wordt in ons land nochtans al </span><a href="https://trends.knack.be/economie/een-meerwaardebelasting-of-extra-taksen-zijn-het-verkeerde-recept-voor-de-relance/article-opinion-1633177.html"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">zeer sterk belast</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. De impliciete belastingdruk op kapitaal </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Bvancraeynest/status/1293801898160672768"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">liep</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> in België
in 2018 op tot zowat 40 procent, wat van alle Europese landen enkel in
Frankrijk nog hoger is.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Daarbovenop is er dus
het voornemen om een nationale digitale taks op tech- en e-commercebedrijven in
te voeren, in elk geval vanaf 2023. Dat betekent dus dat een Netflix - abonnement
duurder wordt. Bovendien komt er ook een “minimumbelasting voor multinationals”,
waarvoor al 300 miljoen euro in de begroting staat </span><a href="https://twitter.com/DeMolJohan/status/1311532597256781824"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">ingeschreven</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">, terwijl experts nu al </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1311346803757940736"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">voorspellen</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> hoe dit de krakkemikkige Belgische fiscaliteit nog
krakkemikkiger zal maken. Zoiets kan niet enkel nieuwe grote investeringen verhinderen,
het kan ook het eco-systeem van KMO’s aantasten dat men vaak rond grote
multinationals ziet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Last but not least
zal de nieuwe Belgische regering ook enthousiast meewerken aan internationale
en Europese pogingen om vliegen duurder te maken, via een kerosinetaks – de
vele Vlaams-Brabanders die op de noodlijdende luchthaven van Zaventem werken
zullen het graag horen- en aan een protectionistische “carbontaks”, wat invoer
duurder maakt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Tot slot </span><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/1311559971188899843"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">komt</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> er
ook een “forse verhoging van de accijnzen en btw op tabak en sigaretten”, wat
volgend jaar alleen al 200 miljoen euro moet opbrengen. So much for “</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdVSqSNHhVo"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">read
my lips: no new taxes</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: white;">5. Geen
concrete plannen op vlak van staatshervorming, ondanks huidige gebrekkige
structuren. <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ondanks 21 maanden
non-governo, om van de voorbije 15 jaar nog te zwijgen, lijkt een aanpassing
van de slecht uitgewerkte bevoegdheidsverdeling in ons land allesbehalve een
prioriteit. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ondanks perslekken
dat sociale zekerheid naar de deelstaten zou gaan, behalve de financiering dan,
staan in het regeerakkoord uiteindelijk </span><a href="http://newsroom.roularta.be/static/30092020/regeerakkoord.pdf?_ga=2.218956895.792354171.1601464137-1456588048.1595851349"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">enkel</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
vage voornemens, zoals: "De bedoeling is een zorg zo dicht mogelijk bij de
patiënt zonder dat aan de solidaire financiering wordt geraakt". Er </span><a href="https://twitter.com/SanderLoones/status/1311561070725693440"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">komen</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> een
“democratisch debat” en zelfs een “dialoog”, onder leiding van “twee
vice-ministers” (sic) “om de bestaande structuur te evalueren”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Zelfs minder
ambitieuze communautaire hervormingen komen er niet. Veelzeggend is hoe de Parti
Socialiste er </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">op haar goedkeuringscongres </span><a href="https://twitter.com/CieltjeVAchter/status/1311394093680005120"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">mee
uitpakte</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> dat de Vlaamse eis voor een fusie van de Brusselse politiezones
er niet komt, maar dat de Brusselse Minister-President hier integendeel wat
extra controle verwerft, wat betekent dat alles dus bij het oude blijft. De
partij </span><a href="https://twitter.com/CieltjeVAchter/status/1311394093680005120"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">stelde
zelfs expliciet</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> binnengehaald te hebben dat er “niets”
zou gebeuren op vlak van het problematische en onwettelijke (gebrek aan)
tweetaligheid van de Brusselse ambtenaren. <span style="background: white; color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Het is bijzonder
jammer dat Open VLD-voorzitter Egbert Lachaert geen speerpunt heeft gemaakt van
zijn belofte om de fiscale autonomie aan de deelstaten te geven, want eigenlijk
is meer eigen belastingbevoegdheid veel en veel belangrijker voor de autonomie
van de deelstaten dan dat ze het recht krijgen om het geld uit te geven. In </span><a href="https://www.efd.admin.ch/efd/en/home/themen/steuern/steuern-national/the-swiss-tax-system/fb-schweizer-steuersystem.html#:~:text=In%20Switzerland%2C%20original%20taxing%20power,services%20and%20high%2Dquality%20infrastructure.https://doorbraak.be/waarom-een-staatshervorming-onvermijdelijk-is/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Zwitserland</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">, de </span><a href="https://doorbraak.be/waarom-een-staatshervorming-onvermijdelijk-is/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">modelstaat</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> bij uitstek op dit vlak, is de belastinginning immers sterk
gedecentraliseerd, wat dus voor een weldadige belastingconcurrentie zorgt en
meer verantwoordelijkheidszin bij beleidsniveaus in het algemeen. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Besluit:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Het </span><a href="https://trends.knack.be/economie/een-meerwaardebelasting-of-extra-taksen-zijn-het-verkeerde-recept-voor-de-relance/article-opinion-1633177.html"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">kan wellicht</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> altijd erger en tot dusver komt er al geen
meerwaardebelasting die de Vlaamse middenklasse op lange termijn hard kan
treffen, zeker als die ooit tot vastgoed zou worden uitgebreid, maar bij de
komende begrotingscontroles zal men elke keer voor erger moeten vrezen. Laat
ons hopen dat de verlenging van de kerncentrales toch snel wordt bevestigd,
want er is weinig hoop op een val van deze regering. De regeringspartijen
lijken immers als de dood voor vervroegde verkiezingen, die er misschien enkel
komen als de groenen de regering opblazen over de kernuitstap. De Franstalige
deelstaten </span><a href="https://doorbraak.be/belgie-na-corona-staatshervorming/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">komen</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> sowieso
in financiële problemen de komende jaren, dus de herziening van de
financieringswet wordt de grote hefboom om België eindelijk fundamenteel te
hervormen vanaf 2024 – hopelijk naar Zwitsers model. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In afwachting daarvan
geldt: "The duty of her Majesty's opposition is to oppose".<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-20639612727525056962020-09-24T19:34:00.008+02:002020-10-12T19:39:09.420+02:00Listed among “top 40 EU influencers”<p>I am happy to announce that I <a href="https://twitter.com/ZNConsulting/status/1309177549856165890 ">was </a><a href="https://twitter.com/ZNConsulting/status/1309172767133233153 ">listed </a>among the <b>“<a href="https://znconsulting.com/articles/euinfluencer-the-premier-event-about-the-power-of-social-media-in-the-brussels-bubble/ ">top 40 EU influencers</a>”</b> on twitter by digital consulting firm ZN Consulting: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilXwXd5x0n46hPnGckXCLtuWX6bFJ2W0u7yJud_52tFu_TI-NhOtoz_2q0qeKYF_dVgJjcT9kdeOADY-icNI-4D13YTdqTWeQ3TytnTnJ4UZ6i8RLsWDe8CoxDItFzbY_EbkyjKQ/s2609/EUInfluencer2020_Top40.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2609" data-original-width="1205" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilXwXd5x0n46hPnGckXCLtuWX6bFJ2W0u7yJud_52tFu_TI-NhOtoz_2q0qeKYF_dVgJjcT9kdeOADY-icNI-4D13YTdqTWeQ3TytnTnJ4UZ6i8RLsWDe8CoxDItFzbY_EbkyjKQ/s320/EUInfluencer2020_Top40.jpg" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-79068882253622977212020-09-09T19:44:00.001+02:002020-10-12T19:45:19.248+02:00The EU’s state aid hypocrisy<p><i> Published by <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-eu-s-state-aid-hypocrisy" target="_blank">The Spectator</a></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Another crucial
period has begun in the Brexit saga. Boris Johnson has ruled out extending the
transition stage beyond 1 January, after which the UK will no longer
automatically take over EU regulations or align with EU trade policy. So the
key question surrounding Brexit will finally need to be answered: what are the
conditions for the UK to retain a decent amount of market access to the
EU? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The answer the EU has
given is that the UK must abstain from unfairly subsidising its companies. That
is a fair demand, but the EU </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/unrealistic-uk-has-caused-post-brexit-trade-impasse-says-france/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">also</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> wants the UK to
continue to align with EU rules on state aid. The latter is something fiercely
resisted by the British, and rightly so. The stakes are high – along with
fisheries, it’s seen as the key sticking point in the negotiations. FT
columnist Wolfgang Munchau, a senior observer of EU politics, </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://twitter.com/EuroBriefing/status/1302865669084590082" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">thinks that</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> ‘it is whether
[the] EU accepts [an] independent UK state aid policy. If yes, there will be
deal. Otherwise no.’</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">If the EU and the
United States were to conclude a trade deal, the EU would be right to oppose
submitting itself to the American state aid regime. Likewise, it doesn’t make
sense at all for the UK to continue to bind itself to the European
state aid machinery. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The UK can, of
course, pledge not to engage in unfair state aid. But both sides could also
secure that commitment through their own institutions. The UK </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/09/stephen-booth-with-four-months-left-to-make-a-brexit-deal-state-aid-is-the-major-stumbling-block-for-the-uk-and-eu.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">could</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">, for example, create an independent
authority to police state aid, subject to review by Parliament and the UK
courts.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Many on the Continent
rightly admire Britain’s institutional architecture, with the rule of law as
its cornerstone. So why should they distrust the UK here? Things are not always
perfect in the UK of course, as Brandon Lewis’s recent comments on
international law have shown.<b> </b>But things aren’t perfect in the EU
either. Without even mentioning the likes of Hungary or Bulgaria, it’s
sufficient to take a look at my own country, Belgium, where the slow moving
judiciary just </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/alle-tenlasteleggingen-in-fortis-dossier-zijn-verjaard~a55545cf/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">failed</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">, after 12 years to
conclude a criminal investigation into the financial conglomerate <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortis_(finance)" target="_blank">Fortis</a>,
following the 2008 financial crisis. At the end of the investigation, nobody
was held responsible. So much for distrusting UK institutions. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Fears that the UK
would suddenly massively engage in state aid after Brexit – apparently </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/09/stephen-booth-with-four-months-left-to-make-a-brexit-deal-state-aid-is-the-major-stumbling-block-for-the-uk-and-eu.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">held</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> by Merkel’s man
in Brussels, David McAllister – are a bit odd, as Britain </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/09/stephen-booth-with-four-months-left-to-make-a-brexit-deal-state-aid-is-the-major-stumbling-block-for-the-uk-and-eu.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">only spent</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> half as much on
state aid as the EU average in 2018. That’s before Covid drove European
countries – and Germany </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1262329466862403585" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">more than</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> any other
country in the world – to inject monstrous amounts of government cash into the
private sector. Perhaps it’s the British that should be wary about the EU
holding up its side of the bargain not to engage in unfair state aid, not the
other way around.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1262228416343863296?s=20"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times","serif"; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1262228416343863296?s=20</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The EU state aid
regime is also becoming ever more </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-jean-claude-juncker-s-presidency" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">politicised</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">, especially in
recent years. Margrethe Vestager, European Commissioner for Competition since
2014, has been overruled by the EU’s top court over her attempts to requalify
special national tax arrangements provided by </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/68f7333a-3049-11e9-8744-e7016697f225" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Belgium</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> and </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/defeat-on-13b-apple-tax-bill-delivers-big-blow-to-eu-margrethe-vestager-ireland/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Ireland</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> as ‘unfair
state aid’. Her claims that these tax arrangements were not really open to any
company were dismissed. In the past, Donald Trump has dubbed her the ‘</span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/27/margarethe-vestager-eu-tax-promotion-074181" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">tax lady</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">’, referring to her
zeal to use her competition powers to force the likes of Apple to pay massive
back-taxes retroactively. Her interest in extracting more cash from companies
stands in sharp contrast with her </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-jean-claude-juncker-s-presidency" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">permissive</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> attitude – long
before Covid – </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://twitter.com/pietercleppe/status/879368739019526144" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">toward</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> European
governments that bail out companies or restrict competition, at the expense of
taxpayers and consumers. This should serve as yet another argument for the UK
not to subject itself to the EU’s legal framework for competition policy.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">At the heart of all
this, is that EU officials are not comfortable with the idea of allowing the UK
to steer its own regulatory course, picking and choosing when to align with EU
rules, depending on whether this results in market access or not. Yet such an
arrangement is precisely what the EU </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://capx.co/switzerland-offers-some-valuable-brexit-lessons-for-the-uk/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">negotiated</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> with </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/switzerland/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Switzerland</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> back in the
1990s, which has worked fine now for 20 years, despite the EU’s relentless
attempts to erode the sovereignty obtained by the Swiss. The EU’s flexibility
here was ultimately of great benefit to both sides. In some areas, the Swiss
copy and paste EU rules, so not to distort supply chains. In other areas, for
example when it comes to financial regulation, the Swiss only receive partial
access to the EU single market, in return for regulatory independence. No </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/eu-warns-uk-it-will-never-never-never-give-way-on-single-market.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">talk</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> of the EU’s ‘four
freedoms’ being ‘indivisible’ here, when services do not flow as freely as
goods. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">When you think about
it, the EU is all about ‘pick and choose’: member states are </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/scoreboard/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">permitted</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> not to
liberalise services or goods when there is insufficient political support. They
can also choose whether to join the monetary union (even if they lack an opt-out,
like Sweden), whether to agree a common EU prosecutor, or whether to
permit passport-free travel. During the Covid crisis, borders were shut at will
and there have always been vast differences in how properly member states
implement EU regulation. The EU really lacks any argument to dismiss the UK
wanting to pick and choose, and it should certainly not use it to refuse a fair
and flexible trade deal, which would inflict great damage to the already badly
suffering economies of both Britain and mainland Europe. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Policy competition is
fundamentally a good thing for the EU. To tackle Covid, an unknown challenge,
European governments have taken very different approaches. This trial and error
permits member states to observe who got things right and who did not. A
top-down approach prevents countries from learning from each other. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">When it comes to
state aid, the natural compromise is for both the UK and the EU to promise they
will not engage in unfair state aid – but trust each other to implement
that commitment themselves. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue";"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12553047.post-38188562137523002862020-08-24T19:28:00.001+02:002020-10-12T19:29:38.361+02:00Een meerwaardebelasting of extra taksen zijn het verkeerde recept voor de relance<p>Gepubliceerd in <a href="https://trends.knack.be/economie/een-meerwaardebelasting-of-extra-taksen-zijn-het-verkeerde-recept-voor-de-relance/article-opinion-1633177.html" target="_blank">Trends</a></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 700;">De toename van het Belgische begrotingstekort was in het eerste kwartaal van 2020 drie keer groter dan het gemiddelde van de eurozone. Dit jaar loopt het op tot bijna 10 procent van het bbp, wat van 1986 is geleden. De 10 miljard extra uitgaven en zware economische recessie zijn daar niet vreemd aan, zegt politiek analist Pieter Cleppe.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px;">De opdrogende overheidsinkomsten doen de onvermijdelijke vraag rijzen wat onze overheid zich nog kan veroorloven. Niettemin komt dat in de lopende regeringsonderhandelingen weinig tot niet aan bod. Integendeel, aan de PS zou zelfs een nieuwe vermogenswinstbelasting, de zogenaamde meerwaardebelasting, zijn toegezegd, weliswaar in ruil voor het verlagen van de roerende voorheffing, die nu 30 procent bedraagt.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Zo'n meerwaardebelasting is een gevaarlijk idee. Naast de lage belasting op verhuurinkomsten is het gebrek eraan zowat de enige fiscale troef die België heeft, behalve dan de zogenoemde Reynders-taks, die enkel geldt voor obligatiefondsen.</p><div id="below_para_2" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Fundamenteel is het probleem met die belasting dat ze wordt geheven op geld waarop al belasting is betaald, en nog geen beetje. In geen enkel land ter wereld wordt een alleenstaande bediende zonder kinderen zo zwaar belast als bij ons. Wanneer die persoon na vele jaren dan een deel van zijn gespaarde vermogen in aandelen investeert, zou men hem of haar dus met nog wat extra bureaucratie bezwaren, bovendien blijkbaar zonder de mogelijkheid eventuele verliezen af te trekken.</p><div id="below_para_3" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Bovendien bestaat het risico, dat men de taks op meerwaarden niet begint te berekenen vanaf het moment dat er een nieuwe regering is, ergens deze herfst, maar retroactief, op een punt dat men dus niet wist dat men deze taks zou riskeren. Zo ging dat bij de uitbreiding van de Reynderstaks in 2018 ook.</p><div id="below_para_4" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Gespaard vermogen wordt in ons land al zeer sterk belast. De impliciete belastingdruk op kapitaal liep in ons land in 2018 op tot zowat 40 procent, wat van alle Europese landen enkel in Frankrijk nog hoger is.</p><div id="below_para_5" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Ook een afgezwakte vorm van deze taks mag men niet goedkeuren. Het staat in de sterren geschreven dat een beperkt toepassingsgebied in de toekomst wordt uitgebreid, zoals bij de Reynders-taks en zoals dat altijd gaat. Dat kan weleens bijzonder ernstige gevolgen hebben voor Vlamingen, die vaak eigenaar zijn van vastgoed. Zodra die belasting bestaat, is het zoveel eenvoudiger ze ook toe te passen op meerwaarden op vastgoed, zelfs op de gezinswoning, zoals het Verenigd Koninkrijk overweegt te doen. Een pervers effect zou zijn dat mensen die hun woning verkopen, dan niet langer de middelen bezitten om een gelijkaardige woning in een gelijkaardige buurt aan te kopen.</p><div id="below_para_6" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Als de meerwaardebelasting zou worden toegepast op de waardestijging van de aandelen van kleine en middelgrote ondernemingen, zou dat bovendien ook een aanval zijn op het vrije initiatief, de innovatie en het ondernemerschap. Onze welvaart is volledig gebouwd op ondernemers die risico nemen en zich keihard inzetten, om de waarde van de aandelen in hun ondernemingen omhoog te stuwen.</p><div id="below_para_7" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">De econoom Stijn Baert stelt voor zo'n meerwaardebelasting te gebruiken om de arbeidslasten te doen dalen. Dat klinkt goed in theorie, maar in de praktijk zal het ertoe leiden dat de sociale zekerheid voor een nog groter deel door de 'algemene middelen' wordt gefinancierd. Een voordeel van ons systeem van sociale bijdragen is dat de overheid dat geld enkel en alleen voor de sociale zekerheid kan gebruiken. De opbrengsten van een meerwaardebelasting gaan in de grote grabbelton van de algemene middelen.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">De arbeidslasten verlagen is natuurlijk een goed idee, maar als dat niet gepaard gaat met een grotere rol voor de private sector in socialezekerheidsvoorzieningen, is het niet meer dan een vestzak-broekzakoperatie. De overheid wordt nu eenmaal gefinancierd door de netto bijdragende actieve bevolking, en doen alsof extra vermogenstaksen daar veel aan veranderen, is de mensen blaasjes wijsmaken. Uiteraard zullen in Brussel wel wat vermogende Fransen wonen, die relatief weinig hebben bijgedragen aan de Belgische overheid, maar met een vermogenswinstbelasting zijn die snel weer weg, wat ook niet goed zou zijn voor onze noodlijdende economie.</p><div id="below_para_10" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Ook alternatieve vormen van belastingverhoging zijn een slecht idee. Bij de komende begrotingscontrole kan men er gif op innemen dat een zoveelste verhoging van de accijnzen op tabak of alcohol zal worden overwogen. Nochtans heeft de regering daar slechte ervaringen mee. In 2017 bleek een verhoging van die accijnzen te hebben geleid tot een daling van de inkomsten. Dat komt door het Laffer-effect, genoemd naar de Amerikaanse econoom Arthur Laffer. Net zoals het duurder maken van een cinematicket van 10 tot 200 euro tot minder inkomsten voor de cinemagroep leidt, is er een punt waarop hogere taksen tot minder inkomsten leiden voor de overheid.</p><div id="below_para_11" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Het is moeilijk te voorspellen waar dat punt ligt, maar in België zijn we er in elk geval zeer dichtbij. De gekrompen economie maakt dat het nog dichterbij zal liggen dan anders. Er zou eigenlijk maar één gespreksthema mogen zijn in de nationale politiek: in welke uitgaven gaan we snijden?</p><div id="below_para_12" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Die vraag hangt nauw samen met de nood aan een staatshervorming, aangezien de beleidsdomeinen waar besparingen politiek het gevoeligst liggen, net op het federale niveau liggen: sociale zekerheid en justitie. De deelstaten zwemmen bij wijze van spreken in het geld. Er komt dus het best een nieuwe staatshervorming, waarbij de deelstaten er bevoegdheden bij krijgen zonder de navenante middelen, en waardoor ze dus eigenlijk moeten besparen op boscoaches of subsidies om Wikipedia bij te werken.</p><div id="below_para_13" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; margin-bottom: 1.25rem;"></div><p class="last-paragraph" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #464646; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem;">Misschien kan het echter wel allemaal zonder grote besparingen, met dank aan het verregaande monetair activisme van de Europese Centrale Bank, die door allerlei aankoopprogramma's en monetaire verruiming de rentelast voor onze overheid kunstmatig laag houdt, ten koste van spaarders dan wel. Gezien de penibele budgettaire situatie in andere Europese landen, zal dat wel nog een tijdje aanhouden, maar ook hieraan zit een grens. Op een bepaald moment wordt het tijd voor besparingen. Het is verstandig om niet te wachten tot men moet vaststellen dat een zoveelste verhoging van de lastendruk tot minder inkomsten heeft geleid.</p>Pieter Cleppehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02734540537594484016noreply@blogger.com0